Inter-annual variability in snow cover depletion patterns and atmospheric circulation indices in the Upper Irtysh basin,Central Asia

The Irtysh River is the main water resource of Eastern Kazakhstan and its upper basin is severely affected by spring floods each year, primarily as a result of snowmelt. Knowledge of the large-scale processes that influence the timing of these snow-induced floods is currently lacking, but critical for the management of water resources in the area. In this study, we evaluated the variability in winter–spring snow cover in five major sub-basins of the Upper Irtysh basin between 2000 and 2017 as a possible explanatory factor of spring flood events, assessing the time of peak snow cover depletion rate and snow cover disappearance from the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) MOD10A2 data set. We found that on average, peak snow cover retreat occurs between 22 March and 14 April depending on the basin, with large interannual variations but no clear trend over the MODIS period, while our comparative analysis of longer-term snow cover extent from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Data Record data set suggests a shift to earlier snow cover disappearance since the 1970s. In contrast, the annual peak snow cover depletion rate displays a weak increasing trend over the study period and exceeded 5,900 km²/day in 2017. The timing of snow disappearance in spring shows significant correlations of up to 0.82 for the largest basin with winter indices of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) over the region. The primary driver is the impact of the large-scale pressure anomalies upon the mean spring (MAM) air temperatures and resultant timing of snow cover disappearance, particularly at elevations 500–2,000 m above sea level. This suggests a lagged effect of this atmospheric circulation pattern in spring snow cover retreat. The winter AO index could therefore be incorporated into long-term runoff forecasts for the Irtysh. Our approach is easily transferable to other similar catchments and could support flood management strategies in Kazakhstan and other countries.     

On the seismic performance of straight integral abutment bridges: From advanced numerical modelling to a practice-oriented analysis method

The seismic performance of integral abutment bridges (IABs) is affected by the interaction with the surrounding soil, and specifically by the development of interaction forces in the embankment-abutment and soil-piles systems. In principle, these effects could be evaluated by means of highly demanding numerical computations that, however, can be carried out only for detailed studies of specific cases. By contrast, a low-demanding analysis method is needed for a design-oriented assessment of the longitudinal seismic performance of IABs. To this purpose, the present paper describes a design technique in which the frequency- and amplitude-dependency of the soil-structure interaction is modelled in a simplified manner. Specifically, the method consists of a time-domain analysis of a simplified soil-bridge model, in which soil-structure interaction is simulated by means of distributed nonlinear springs connecting a free-field ground response analysis model to the structural system. The results of this simplified method are validated against the results of advanced numerical analyses, considering different seismic scenarios. In its present state of development, the proposed simplified nonlinear model can be used for an efficient evaluation of the longitudinal response of straight IABs and can constitute a starting point for a prospective generalisation to three-dimensional response.     

Acoustic properties of sediments saturated with gas hydrate, free gas and water

We obtain the wave velocities and quality factors of gas‐hydrate‐bearing sediments as a function of pore pressure, temperature, frequency and partial saturation. The model is based on a Biot‐type three‐phase theory that considers the existence of two solids (grains and gas hydrate) and a fluid mixture. Attenuation is described with the constant‐Q model and viscodynamic functions to model the high‐frequency behaviour. We apply a uniform gas/water mixing law that satisfies Wood's and Voigt's averages at low and high frequencies, respectively. The acoustic model is calibrated to agree with the patchy‐saturation theory at high frequencies (White's model). Pressure effects are accounted by using an effective stress law for the dry‐rock moduli and permeabilities. The dry‐rock moduli of the sediment are calibrated with data from the Cascadia margin. Moreover, we calculate the depth of the bottom simulating reflector (BSR) below the sea floor as a function of sea‐floor depth, geothermal gradient below the sea floor, and temperature at the sea floor.     

Analysis of long-period events recorded at Mount Etna (Italy) in 1992, and their relationship to eruptive activity

Seismic activity recorded at Mount Etna during 1992 was characterized by long-period (LP) events and tremor with fluctuating amplitudes. These signals were associated with the evolution of the eruptive activity that began on December 14, 1991. Following the occurrence of numerous volcano-tectonic earthquakes at the onset of the eruption, LP events dominated the overall seismicity starting in January, 1992. The LP activity occurred primarily in swarms, which were temporally correlated with episodic collapses of the crater floor in the Northeast Crater. Source depths determined for selected LP events suggest a source region located slightly east of Northeast Crater and extending from the surface to a depth of 2000 m. Based on the characteristic signatures of the time series, four families of LP events are identified. Each family shares common spectral peaks independent of azimuth and distance to the source. These spectral features are used to develop a fluid-filled crack model of the source. We hypothesize that the locus of the LP events represents a segment of the magma feeding system connecting a depressurizing magma body with a dike extending in the SSE direction along the western wall of Valle del Bove, toward the site of the Mount Etna eruption. We surmise that magma withdrawal from the source volume beneath Northeast Crater may have caused repeated collapses of the crater floor. Some collapse events may have produced pressure transients in the subjacent dike which acted as seismic wave sources for LP events.     

The Campo Imperatore Near Earth Object Survey (CINEOS)

The Campo Imperatore Near Earth Object Survey (CINEOS) is an Italian survey dedicated to the search and follow-up of Near Earth Objects (NEOs). It is operated with the 90 cm f/3 Schmidt telescope at the Campo Imperatore of the Rome Astronomical Observatory (INAF-OAR) as a joint project with the Istituto di Astrofisica Spaziale and Fisica Cosmica (INAF-IASF) in Rome. Since the end of 2001 CINEOS has covered about 4,250 sq. deg to 20th magnitude in the course of about 160 nights. This effort led to the discovery of 7 Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs), 1 comet (167P/CINEOS; a member of the Centaur group) and a few other unusual objects including 2004 XH₅₀ with a unique comet-like orbit. CINEOS has also contributed almost 2,200 preliminary designations and over 30,000 detections to the Minor Planet Center. About 20% of the survey effort was carried out at low solar elongations (LSE), although no object with an orbit interior (Inner Earth Objects, IEO class) or nearly interior to the Earth (Aten class) was found. The work at LSE was, however, very important to test survey strategies implemented with larger telescopes. We also provide the results of a CINEOS simulation on a reliable NEO population model based on the results of two larger scale surveys, Spacewatch and LINEAR.     

Patterns of decadal-scale Arctic warming events in simulated climate

Pronounced positive decadal-scale temperature anomalies occurred in the Arctic region in the first half of the twentieth century, an episode known as the early twentieth century warming (ETCW). Analyzing a 3,000-year unperturbed climate simulation performed with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, we demonstrate that internal variability of the Northern Hemisphere climate system is sufficient to reproduce warm events matching the observed ETCW. We perform a superposed epoch analysis on simulated data and identify 26 Arctic warming episodes compatible with the ETCW. The simulated events reproduce, in their ensemble average, magnitude as well as spatial and temporal extent of the observed ETCW. In individual realizations, the ETCW-like events indicate that different patterns of internally generated decadal Arctic warming are possible, including pan-Arctic warming events. We investigate the dynamics that typically lead to the simulated warming events: positive oceanic heat transport anomalies that form in the North Atlantic initialize the warming events and trigger an ocean-ice-albedo feedback in the Barents Sea region. The consequent reduction in sea-ice extent leads to enhanced multi-year surface warming through strengthened ocean heat release to the atmosphere. The oceanic heat transport anomalies reduce to pre-event levels around the year of the maximum warming. However, the warming events typically lasts for another 5–7 years until the sea-ice extent recovers to pre-event conditions.     

Robust resolution of Kepler’s equation in all eccentricity regimes

The singularity for the big bang state can be represented using the generalized anisotropic Friedmann equation, resulting in a system of differential equations in a central force field. We study the regularizability of this singularity as a function of a parameter, the equation of state, w. We prove that for w > 1 it is regularizable only for w satisfying relative prime number conditions, and for w ≤ 1 it can always be regularized. This is done by using a McGehee transformation, usually applied in the three and four-body problems. This transformation blows up the singularity into an invariant manifold. The relationship of this result to other cosmological models is briefly discussed.