Observational constraints on the tropospheric and near-surface winter signature of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex

A composite analysis of Northern Hemisphere’s mid-winter tropospheric anomalies under the conditions of strong and weak stratospheric polar vortex was performed on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1948 to 2013 considering, as additional grouping criteria, the coincidental states of major seasonally relevant climate phenomena, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Quasi Biennial Oscillation and strong volcanic eruptions. The analysis reveals that samples of strong polar vortex nearly exclusively occur during cold ENSO states, while a weak polar vortex is observed for both cold and warm ENSO. The strongest tropospheric and near-surface anomalies are found for warm ENSO and weak polar vortex conditions, suggesting that internal tropospheric circulation anomalies related to warm ENSO constructively superpose on dynamical effects from the stratosphere. Additionally, substantial differences are found between the continental winter warming patterns under strong polar vortex conditions in volcanically-disturbed and volcanically-undisturbed winters. However, the small-size samples obtained from the multi-compositing prevent conclusive statements about typical patterns, dominating effects and mechanisms of stratosphere-troposphere interaction on the seasonal time scale based on observational/reanalysis data alone. Hence, our analysis demonstrates that patterns derived from observational/reanalysis time series need to be taken with caution as they not always provide sufficiently robust constraints to the inferred mechanisms implicated with stratospheric polar vortex variability and its tropospheric and near-surface signature. Notwithstanding this argument, we propose a limited set of mechanisms that together may explain a relevant part of observed climate variability. These may serve to define future numerical model experiments minimizing the sample biases and, thus, improving process understanding.     

Different flavors of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

We investigate how differently-constructed indices for North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures (NASSTs) describe the “Atlantic Multidecadal Variability” (AMV) in a suite of unperturbed as well as externally-forced millennial (pre-industrial period) climate simulations. The simulations stem from an ensemble of Earth system models differing in both resolution and complexity. Different criteria exist to construct AMV indices capturing different aspects of the phenomenon. Although all representations of the AMV maintain strong multidecadal variability, they depict different characteristics of simulated low-frequency NASST variability, evolve differently in time and relate to different hemispheric teleconnections. Due to such multifaceted signatures in the ocean-surface as well as in the atmosphere, reconstructions of past AMV may not univocally reproduce multidecadal NASST variability. AMV features under simulated externally-forced pre-industrial climate conditions are not unambiguously distinguishable, within a linear framework, from AMV features in corresponding unperturbed simulations. This prevents a robust diagnosis of the simulated pre-industrial AMV as a predominantly internal rather than externally-forced phenomenon. We conclude that a multi-perspective assessment of multidecadal NASSTs variability is necessary for understanding the origin of the AMV, its physics and its climatic implications.     

Efficiency of a wide-area survey in achieving short- and long-term warning for small impactors

We consider a network of telescopes capable of scanning all the observable sky each night and targeting Near-Earth objects (NEOs) in the size range of the Tunguska-like asteroids, from 160 m down to 10 m. We measure the performance of this telescope network in terms of the time needed to discover at least 50% of the impactors in the considered population with a warning time large enough to undertake proper mitigation actions. The warning times are described by a trimodal distribution and the telescope network has a 50% probability of discovering an impactor of the Tunguska class with at least one week of advance already in the first 10 yr of operations of the survey. These results suggest that the studied survey would be a significant addition to the current NEO discovery efforts.     

Discrimination between wave‐ravinement surfaces and bedset boundaries in Pliocene shallow‐marine deposits,Crotone Basin,southern Italy: An integrated sedimentological,micropalaeontological and mineralogical approach

The lower Pliocene Belvedere Formation, cropping out in the Crotone Basin, southern Italy, exhibits a metre‐scale to decametre‐scale shallow‐marine cyclicity that shares features of both high‐frequency sequences linked to shoreline shifts and controlled by minor relative sea‐level and/or sediment supply changes, and sedimentological cycles unrelated to shoreline shifts. In order to better understand the high‐frequency sequence stratigraphic framework of this succession, an integration of sedimentological, micropalaeontological (micro‐foraminifera assemblages) and mineralogical (heavy mineral abundance) data is used. From a sedimentological/stratigraphic point of view, wave‐ravinement surfaces bounding high‐frequency sequences, and associated substrate‐controlled ichnofacies, are prominent in outcrop and document environmental and water‐depth changes, whereas bedset boundaries separating sedimentological cycles have a more subtle field appearance and are only associated with changes of environmental energy. Moreover, condensed deposits are present only above wave‐ravinement surfaces, and the high‐frequency sequences bounded by these surfaces have a thickness that is an order of magnitude greater than that of the bedsets. Micro‐foraminifera assemblages may change, and the content of heavy minerals usually increases, across wave‐ravinement surfaces, whereas both parameters do not change significantly across bedset boundaries. The abundance of heavy minerals is systematically higher, with respect to the underlying and overlying deposits, in the condensed shell beds that overlie wave‐ravinement surfaces. An integrated sedimentological, micropalaeontological and mineralogical approach represents a powerful tool to discriminate between wave‐ravinement surfaces bounding high‐frequency sequences and bedset boundaries, and in general to investigate at the intra high‐frequency sequence scale. This integrated approach is expected to be very useful in the study of potentially all shallow‐marine successions composed of small‐scale cycles, in order to delineate a detailed sequence stratigraphic framework and understand the factors that controlled the cyclicity.     

Statistical analysis of intermittent volcanic tremor associated with the September 1989 summit explosive eruptions at Mount Etna, Sicily

The pattern of volcanic tremor accompanying the 1989 September eruption at the south-east summit crater of Mount Etna is studied. In specific, sixteen episodes of lava fountaining, which occurred in the first phase of the eruption, are analysed. Their periodic behaviour, also evidenced by autocorrelation, allows us to define the related tremor amplitude increases as intermittent volcanic tremor episodes. Focusing on the regular intermittent behaviour found for both lava fountains and intermittent volcanic tremors, we tried an a posteriori forecast using simple statistical methods based on linear regression and the Student’ t-test. We performed the retrospective statistical forecast, and found that several eruptions would have been successfully forecast. In order to focus on the source mechanism of tremor linked to lava fountains, we investigated the relationship between volcanic and seismic parameters. A mechanism based on a shallow magma batch ‘regularly’ refilled from depth is suggested.