Impact of Sea-level Rise and Storm Surges on a Coastal Community

A technique to evaluate the risk of storm tides (the combination of a storm surge and tide) under present and enhanced greenhouse conditions has been applied to Cairns on the north-eastern Australian coast. The technique combines a statistical model for cyclone occurrence with a state-of-the-art storm surge inundation model and involves the random generation of a large number of storm tide simulations. The set of simulations constitutes a synthetic record of extreme sea-level events that can be analysed to produce storm tide return periods. The use of a dynamic storm surge model with overland flooding capability means that the spatial extent of flooding is also implicitly modelled. The technique has the advantage that it can readily be modified to include projected changes to cyclone behaviour due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Sea-level heights in the current climate for return periods of 50, 100, 500 and 1000 years have been determined to be 2.0 m, 2.3 m, 3.0 m and 3.4 m respectively. In an enhanced greenhouse climate (around 2050), projected increases in cyclone intensity and mean sea-level see these heights increase to 2.4 m, 2.8 m, 3.8 m and 4.2 m respectively. The average area inundated by events with a return period greater than 100 years is found to more than double under enhanced greenhouse conditions.     

Biosorption of Rare-Earth Elements and Yttrium by Heterotrophic Bacteria in an Aqueous Environment

This paper reports the results of the experimental determination of the coefficient of sorption of rare-earth elements and yttrium (REY) under conditions of acidic pH using several strains of heterotrophic bacteria (Microbacterium sp., Curtobacterium sp., Bacillus subtilis, Pseudomonas putida, and Bacillus pumilis) that are widespread in natural and technogenic waters of the Far East (Russia). Insignificant fractionation between heavy and light rare-earth elements, negative cerium and dysprosium anomalies, and a positive europium anomaly were revealed. The selectivity of REY biosorption by gram-positive and gram-negative bacteria, as well as inertia of the biosorption process under more acidic conditions of the medium, were shown.     

Optical properties of dust from Jupiter family comets

To try to define specific physical properties of the dust of Jupiter-family comets (JFCs), we compare the light scattered by them. Amongst the more than 1000 JFCs, less than 200 are numbered, 40 of them being rather bright. In the present work we use data from the latter. In situ observations of three nuclei show low albedo surfaces. The albedo of the dust particles in the coma is low, with generally a red colour. The A(α)fρ product is a measure of cometary activity and secular changes. Images of different regions (jets and fans) give indications on the nucleus rotation and position of the emitting areas, as compared to the position of the rotation axis. Differences in physical properties between the particles in different regions are pointed out by differences in the linear polarization of the scattered light and by spectral variations in brightness and polarization. Jupiter family comets are considered as dust-poor comets. Tails and trails’ studies give an estimation of the size distribution of the particles. However the dust production rates depend on the largest particles (up to centimetre size), which are mainly observed in the trails where large dark compact particles are found. These dark particles are also responsible for the high polarization in the inner most coma of some comets. The meaning, in terms of physical properties, of the linear polarization is discussed through different examples such as 2P/Encke, 9P/Tempel 1 or the fragments of 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3. Cometary outbursts and splitting events show that the properties of the dust ejected from the interior of the nucleus are similar to the ones of more active comets (new or with larger semi-major axis).     

Formalization of assessing radioactive waste burial site seismic regime parameters from seismological and geological data

A model is proposed that shows the relation of the block structure of the crust and earthquake sources (Sadovskii, 1979; Rodionov, 1979, 1984, 1994; Bugaev, 1999, 2011, 2014, 2015). The model can formalize how to assess the prediction of seismic regime parameters depending on the elastic limit and conditions and rate of deformation of the Earth’s crust. The spent nuclear fuel repository site in Olkiluoto (Finland) and a site in the area of the Krasnoyarsk Mining and Chemical Combine are considered as examples. It is demonstrated that the parameters of the prediction graphs limit the location of the points of magnitude repeatability graphs calculated for a site based on samples of earthquakes in the area according to different authors. This makes it possible to recommend predictive assessment of seismic regime parameters for stability monitoring of the seismic regime and safety analysis of a geological environment’s insulation properties for waste sites from the results of seismological monitoring and high-precision observations of modern movements of the Earth’s crust.     

Risk Management for Petroleum Reservoir Production: A Simulation-Based Study of Prediction

We consider numerical solutions of the Darcy and Buckley–Leverett equations for flow in porous media. These solutions depend on a realization of a random field that describes the reservoir permeability. The main content of this paper is to formulate and analyze a probability model for the numerical coarse grid solution error. We explore the extent to which the coarse grid oil production rate is sufficient to predict future oil production rates. We find that very early oil production data is sufficient to reduce the prediction error in oil production by about 30%, relative to the prior probability prediction.