Multi-proxy summer and winter precipitation reconstruction for southern Africa over the last 200 years

This study presents the first consolidation of palaeoclimate proxy records from multiple archives to develop statistical rainfall reconstructions for southern Africa covering the last two centuries. State-of-the-art ensemble reconstructions reveal multi-decadal rainfall variability in the summer and winter rainfall zones. A decrease in precipitation amount over time is identified in the summer rainfall zone. No significant change in precipitation amount occurred in the winter rainfall zone, but rainfall variability has increased over time. Generally synchronous rainfall fluctuations between the two zones are identified on decadal scales, with common wet (dry) periods reconstructed around 1890 (1930). A strong relationship between seasonal rainfall and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the surrounding oceans is confirmed. Coherence among decadal-scale fluctuations of southern African rainfall, regional SST, SSTs in the Pacific Ocean and rainfall in south-eastern Australia suggest SST-rainfall teleconnections across the southern hemisphere. Temporal breakdowns of the SST-rainfall relationship in the southern African regions and the connection between the two rainfall zones are observed, for example during the 1950s. Our results confirm the complex interplay between large-scale teleconnections, regional SSTs and local effects in modulating multi-decadal southern African rainfall variability over long timescales.     

Amazon forest biomass density maps: tackling the uncertainty in carbon emission estimates

As land use change (LUC), including deforestation, is a patchy process, estimating the impact of LUC on carbon emissions requires spatially accurate underlying data on biomass distribution and change. The methods currently adopted to estimate the spatial variation of above- and below-ground biomass in tropical forests, in particular the Brazilian Amazon, are usually based on remote sensing analyses coupled with field datasets, which tend to be relatively scarce and often limited in their spatial distribution. There are notable differences among the resulting biomass maps found in the literature. These differences subsequently result in relatively high uncertainties in the carbon emissions calculated from land use change, and have a larger impact when biomass maps are coded into biomass classes referring to specific ranges of biomass values. In this paper we analyze the differences among recently-published biomass maps of the Amazon region, including the official information used by the Brazilian government for its communication to the United Nation Framework on Climate Change Convention of the United Nations. The estimated average pre-deforestation biomass in the four maps, for the areas of the Amazon region that had been deforested during the 1990–2009 period, varied from 205?±?32 Mg ha^?1 during 1990–1999, to 216?±?31 Mg ha^?1 during 2000–2009. The biomass values of the deforested areas in 2011 were between 7 and 24 % higher than for the average deforested areas during 1990–1999, suggesting that although there was variation in the mean value, deforestation was tending to occur in increasingly carbon-dense areas, with consequences for carbon emissions. To summarize, our key findings were: (i) the current maps of Amazonian biomass show substantial variation in both total biomass and its spatial distribution; (ii) carbon emissions estimates from deforestation are highly dependent on the spatial distribution of biomass as determined by any single biomass map, and on the deforestation process itself; (iii) future deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon is likely to affect forests with higher biomass than those deforested in the past, resulting in smaller reductions in carbon dioxide emissions than expected purely from the recent reductions in deforestation rates; and (iv) the current official estimate of carbon emissions from Amazonian deforestation is probably overestimated, because the recent loss of higher-biomass forests has not been taken into account.     

An evaluation of the role played by remote sensing technology following the World Trade Center attack

Remote sensing technology has been widely recognized for contributing to emergency response efforts after the World Trade Center attack on September 11th, 2001. The need to coordinate activities in the midst of a dense, yet relatively small area, made the combination of imagery and mapped data strategically useful. This paper reviews the role played by aerial photography, satellite imagery, and LIDAR data at Ground Zero. It examines how emergency managers utilized these datasets, and identifies significant problems that were encountered. It goes on to explore additional ways in which imagery could have been used, while presenting recommendations for more effective use in future disasters and Homeland Security applications. To plan adequately for future events, it was important to capture knowledge from individuals who responded to the World Trade Center attack. In recognition, interviews with key emergency management and geographic information system (GIS) personnel provide the basis of this paper. Successful techniques should not be forgotten, or serious problems dismissed. Although widely used after September 11th, it is important to recognize that with better planning, remote sensing and GIS could have played an even greater role. Together with a data acquisition timeline, an expanded discussion of these issues is available in the MCEER/NSF report “Emergency Response in the Wake of the World Trade Center Attack; The Remote Sensing Perspective” (Huyck and Adams, 2002)     

Revising the paradigm of tidal analysis – the uses of non-stationary data

Surface elevation and current records contain non-tidal variance, often dismissed as noise. The processes responsible for the non-tidal component may also modulate the tidal signal, altering its strength and frequency structure. Because of their manner of generation and propagation, internal tides are inherently irregular. The non-stationary character of these and other tidal processes provides an integral and useful property of tidal records, because it provides an opportunity to obtain insights into tidal dynamics and the interaction of tidal and non-tidal processes. It is, moreover, productive to use multiple approaches in analyzing coastal and estuarine tidal processes so that both the time-varying and average frequency content are determined. Only by confronting the causes of non-stationary behaviour in this way can some of the remaining challenges in tidal analysis and prediction be overcome, e.g. shelf and estuarine currents, river tides, internal tides, tide-surge interactions and tidally influenced ecological processes. Several examples illustrate the utility of non-stationary tidal analysis methods.Responsible Editor: Jens Kappenberg     

Slab weakening: Mechanical and thermal-mechanical consequences for slab detachment

Abstract Slab detachment is a geophysical instability whose manifestation can be revealed by seismic tomography. Evidence of this phenomenon is in the Dinarides/Hellenic and the New Hebrides subduction zones. Subducted slabs in these regions are torn horizontally at depths ranging from 100 to 300 km. We constructed a viscoelastic three-dimensional finite element model and investigated the state of stress. We found that an area with high stress concentration of the order of several hundred MPa is formed near the tip of the tear inside the slab, which can cause lateral migration of the tear. Favorable conditions for slab detachment are characterized by large interplate frictional force at a subduction zone and small slab resistance force deeper down. Stress concentration increases with the down-dip tension inside the slab. The phenomenon of slab weakening has also been studied from a thermal-mechanical standpoint, using a two-dimensional convection model with non-Newtonian, temperature-dependent rheology. The stress-dependent rheology plays an important role in causing local weakening of the descending slab. In strongly time-dependent situations the fast descending slab is not strong everywhere but has a weak region in the middle, making it vulnerable to slab detachment. The presence of viscous heating will enhance slab detachment tendency by further weakening the interior by the frictional heating. Besides these effects, there are other mechanisms which can also weaken the slab interior and help to make slabs more pliable and susceptible to detachment.     

A Sophisticated Ground Water Analytical Tool

Stiff diagrams arc a multivariate method of analysis used to describe the chemical state of ground water. The use of Stiff diagrams to describe multiconstituent contamination sites, such as landfills, has distinct advantages over single constituent analyses. Problems associated with traditional Stiff diagram analyses, such as diagram attentuation, can be addressed by allowing the scale of the diagram to vary with the ionic strength of the analyzed sample. The use of these sliding scale Stiff diagrams reveals the chemical slate of the ground water over wide ranges of constituent concentrations and thus allows for sensitive and sophisticated depictions of complicated contamination sites in a fashion that is extremely difficult to replicate with single constituent analyses. This approach has possible applications for understanding and tracing the mixing and chemical changes in uncontaminated settings.     

Surveillance for previously unmonitored organic contaminants in the San Francisco Estuary

The San Francisco Estuary Regional Monitoring Program initiated surveillance monitoring to identify previously unmonitored synthetic organic contaminants in the San Francisco Estuary. Organic extracts of water samples were analyzed using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry in full scan mode. The major contaminant classes identified in the samples were fire retardants, pesticides, personal care product ingredients, and plasticizers. Evidence from the literature suggests that some of these contaminants can persist in the environment, induce toxicity, and accumulate in marine biota and in higher food chain consumers. The major sources of these contaminants into the marine environment are the discharge of municipal and industrial wastewater effluents, urban stormwater, and agricultural runoff. As a proactive effort, it is suggested that surveillance studies be used routinely in monitoring programs to identify and prevent potential problem contaminants from harming the marine environment.     

Channel precipitation dynamics in a forested Pennsylvania headwater catchment (USA)

Seasonal and event variations in stream channel area and the contributions of channel precipitation to stream flow were studied on a 106‐ha forested headwater catchment in central Pennsylvania. Variations in stream velocity, flowing stream surface width and widths of near‐stream saturated areas were periodically monitored at 61 channel transects over a two‐year period. The area of flowing stream surface and near‐stream saturated zones combined, ranged from 0·07% of basin area during summer low flows to 0·60% of total basin area during peak storm flows. Near‐stream saturated zones generally represented about half of the total channel area available to intercept throughfall and generate channel precipitation. Contributions of routed channel precipitation from the flowing stream surface and near‐stream zones, calculated using the Penn State Runoff Model (PSRM, v. 95), represented from 1·1 to 6·4% of total stream flow and 2·5–29% of total storm flow (stream flow–antecedent baseflow) during the six events. Areas of near‐stream saturated zones contributed 35–52% of the computed channel precipitation during the six events. Channel precipitation contributed a higher percentage of stream flow for events with low antecedent baseflow when storm flow generated by subsurface sources was relatively low. Expansion of channel area and consequent increases in volumes of channel precipitation with flow increases during events was non‐linear, with greater rates of change occurring at lower than at higher discharge rates. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effect of sampling rate and anti-aliasing filters on high-frequency response spectra

The most commonly used intensity measure in ground-motion prediction equations is the pseudo-absolute response spectral acceleration (PSA), for response periods from 0.01 to 10 s (or frequencies from 0.1 to 100 Hz). PSAs are often derived from recorded ground motions, and these motions are usually filtered to remove high and low frequencies before the PSAs are computed. In this article we are only concerned with the removal of high frequencies. In modern digital recordings, this filtering corresponds at least to an anti-aliasing filter applied before conversion to digital values. Additional high-cut filtering is sometimes applied both to digital and to analog records to reduce high-frequency noise. Potential errors on the short-period (high-frequency) response spectral values are expected if the true ground motion has significant energy at frequencies above that of the anti-aliasing filter. This is especially important for areas where the instrumental sample rate and the associated anti-aliasing filter corner frequency (above which significant energy in the time series is removed) are low relative to the frequencies contained in the true ground motions. A ground-motion simulation study was conducted to investigate these effects and to develop guidance for defining the usable bandwidth for high-frequency PSA. The primary conclusion is that if the ratio of the maximum Fourier acceleration spectrum (FAS) to the FAS at a frequency $f_{saa} $ corresponding to the start of the anti-aliasing filter is more than about 10, then PSA for frequencies above $f_{saa} $ should be little affected by the recording process, because the ground-motion frequencies that control the response spectra will be less than $f_{saa} $ . A second topic of this article concerns the resampling of the digital acceleration time series to a higher sample rate often used in the computation of short-period PSA. We confirm previous findings that sinc-function interpolation is preferred to the standard practice of using linear time interpolation for the resampling.