Methodology for preliminary assessment of Natech risk in urban areas

Concern for natural hazard-triggered technological disasters (Natech disasters) in densely populated and industrialized areas is growing. Residents living in urban areas subject to high natural hazard risk are often unaware of the potential for secondary disasters such as hazardous materials releases from neighboring industrial facilities, chemical storage warehouses or other establishments housing hazardous materials. Lessons from previous disasters, such as the Natech disaster during the Kocaeli earthquake in Turkey in 1999 call for the need to manage low frequency/high consequence events, particularly in today’s densely populated areas. However, there is little guidance available on how local governments and communities can assess Natech risk. To add to the problem, local governments often do not have the human or economic resources or expertise to carry out detailed risk assessments. In this article, we propose a methodology for preliminary assessment of Natech risk in urban areas. The proposed methodology is intended for use by local government officials in consultation with the public. The methodology considers possible interactions between the various systems in the urban environment: the physical infrastructure (e.g., industrial plants, lifeline systems, critical facilities), the community (e.g., population exposed), the natural environment (e.g., delicate ecosystems, river basins), and the risk and emergency management systems (e.g., structural and nonstructural measures). Factors related to vulnerability and hazard are analyzed and qualitative measures are recommended. Data from hazardous materials releases during the Kocaeli, Turkey earthquake of August 17, 1999 are used as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of the methodology. Limitations of the proposed methodology are discussed as well as future research needs.

Natural background levels and threshold values of monitored parameters in the Cambrian-Vendian groundwater body,Estonia

The Cambrian-Vendian groundwater body plays an important role in drinking water supply of capital Tallinn and other settlements in northern Estonia. Water quality in this deep-seated confined groundwater body is influenced by the intrusion of present-day seawater and pumping-induced upward migration of deeper saline groundwater. The aim of this study is to evaluate the threshold values applying the methodology worked out within the EU 6th FP project “Background criteria for the identification of groundwater thresholds (BRIDGE)” and to compare the results with the values proposed by local authorities. A database containing 250 monitoring points was completed and used for the calculation of natural background levels (as the 90 and 97.7 percentile) in groundwater. The calculation of threshold values is based on natural background levels and reference values. In case of Cambrian-Vendian groundwater body the receptor is drinking water, thus limit values set by Estonian drinking water standard were used as reference values. The threshold values proposed by local authorities are more or less the same as calculated by BRIDGE methodology. Exceptionally different values are derived in case of chloride and ammonium.     

Environmental hydrogeology of the southern sector of the Samborombon Bay wetland,Argentina

The Samborombon Bay wetland is located on the west margin of the Rio de la Plata estuary, in the Province of Buenos Aires, Argentina. This paper analyses the geological, geomorphologic, soil and vegetation characteristics of the southernmost sector of this wetland and their influence on surface water and groundwater. The study area presents three hydrologic units: coastal dunes, sand sheets and coastal plain. Coastal dunes and sand sheets are recharge zones of high permeability with well-drained, non-saline soils, and a few surface water flows. Changes in the water table are related to rainfall. Groundwater in coastal dunes is Ca–Mg–HCO₃ to Na–HCO₃, and of low salinity (590 mg/l). Groundwater in sand sheets is mainly Na–HCO₃ with a salinity of about 1,020 mg/l. The coastal plain exhibits medium to low permeability sediments, with submerged saline soils poorly drained. Groundwater is Na–Cl with a mean salinity of 16,502 mg/l. A surface hydrological network develops in the coastal plain. Surface water levels near the shoreline are affected by tidal fluctuations; far from the shoreline water accumulates because of poor drainage. Both sectors have Na–Cl water, but the former is more saline. Human intervention and sea level rise may affect the wetland severely.     

Interference of Multiple Strip Footings on Sand Using Small Scale Model Tests

By using small scale model tests, the interference effect on the vertical load-deformation behavior of a number of equally spaced strip footings, placed on the surface of dry sand, was investigated. At any stage, all the footings were assumed to (i) carry exactly equal magnitude of load, and (ii) settle to the same extent. No tilt of the footing was permitted. The effect of clear spacing (s) among footings on the results was explored. A new experimental setup was proposed in which only one footing needs to be employed rather than a number of footings. The bearing capacity increases continuously with decrease in spacing among the footings. The interference effect becomes further prominent with increase in soil friction angle. In contrast to an increase in the bearing capacity, with decrease in spacing of footings, an increase in the footing settlement associated with the ultimate state of shear failure was observed. The present experimental observations were similar to those predicted by the available theory, based on the method of characteristics. As compared to the theory, the present experimental data, however, indicates much greater effect of interference especially for larger spacing among footings.     

Analysis of the 2003 Varunawat Landslide,Uttarkashi, India using Earth Observation data

Mass movements such as landslides in mountainous terrains are natural degradation processes and one of the most important landscape-building factors. Varunawat Parbat overlooking Uttarkashi town witnessed a series of landslides on 23 September 2003 and the debris slides and rock falls continued for 2 weeks. This landslide complex was triggered due to the incessant rainfall prior to the event, and its occurrence led to the blockage of the pilgrim route to Gangotri (source of the Ganges river) and evacuation of thousands of people to safer places. Though there was no loss of lives due to timely evacuation, heavy losses to the property were reported. High-resolution stereoscopic earth observation data were acquired after the incidence to study the landslide in detail with emphasis on the cause of the landslide and mode of failure. Areas along the road and below the Varunawat foothill region are mapped for landslide risk. It was found that the foothill region of the Varunawat Parbat was highly disturbed by man-made activities and houses are dangerously located below steep slopes. The potential zones for landslides along with the existing active and old landslides are mapped. These areas are critical and their treatment with priority is required in order to minimise further landslide occurrences.     

Monitoring Large-Scale Tests for Nuclear Waste Disposal

Two large-scale “in situ” demonstration experiments and their instrumentation are described. The first test (FEBEX Experiment) involves the hydration of a compacted bentonite barrier under the combined effect of an inner source of heat and an outer water flow from the confining saturated granite rock. In the second case, the progressive de-saturation of Opalinus clay induced by maintained ventilation of an unlined tunnel is analyzed. The paper shows the performance of different sensors (capacitive cells, psychrometers, TDR’s) and a comparison of fill behaviour with modelling results. The long term performance of some instruments could also be evaluated specially in the case of FEBEX test. Capacitive sensors provide relative humidity data during long transient periods characterised by very large variations of suction within the bentonite.     

A calculation of the large scale three dimensional distribution of diabatic heating in the atmosphere

Summary The large scale three-dimensional diabatic heating in the atmosphere is computed at 12 isentropic surfaces for a particular twelve hour time period. Using a method due toErtel, the continuity equation is combined with the equations of motion to give an explicit relation between diabatic heating and changes in potential vorticity and stability along isentropic surface trajectories. The results are barely of useful accuracy and reliability and this only under favorable conditions. The distribution of diabatic heating is qualitatively reasonable in the regions near the tropopause, close to the ground, above a cloud or moist layer, and within an area of general condensation. Errors and approximations make the computed values completely unreliable in areas of large anticyclonic vorticity or large baroclinity. Comparison of magnitudes with those computed from rainfall observations and with those measured directly at the earth's surface shows agreement in sign and within a factor of three in the areas of best data. The results emphasize that there are regions and periods where diabatic heating in the free atmosphere may be important in controlling atmospheric behavior. Sample calculations in one of these regions using values of diabatic heating computed by this study illustrate that this process is of comparable importance with the adiabatic process in determining vertical velocity.

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Zusammenfassung Die großräumige nichtadiabatische Erwärmung der Atmosphäre in 12 isentropen Flächen während eines 12stündigen Zeitabschnittes wird berechnet. Unter Verwendung einer Methode vonErtel liefert eine Kombination der Kontinuitätsgleichung mit den Bewegungsgleichungen eine explizite Beziehung zwischen der nichtadiabatischen Erwärmung, der potentiellen Vorticity und der Stabilität entlang der isentropen Trajektorien. Das Resultat ist von beschränkter Genauigkeit — und auch dies nur unter günstigen Bedingungen. Qualitativ brauchbare Verteilungen der nichtadiabatischen Erwärmung erhält man nahe der Tropopause, in Bodennähe, über einer Schicht von Wolken oder feuchter Luft und innerhalb der Zonen mit verbreiteter Kondensation. In Gebieten mit großer antizyklonaler Vorticity oder großer Baroklinität werden die berechneten Werte infolge von Meß- und Approximationsfehlern völlig ungenau. In den Gebieten mit optimalen Voraussetzungen stimmen die berechneten Werte mit den aus Niederschlagsmessungen abgeleiteten oder am Boden direkt beobachteten im Vorzeichen und innerhalb eines Faktors von 3 überein. Die Ergebnisse der vorliegenden Untersuchung weisen erneut darauf hin, daß in manchen Gebieten bzw. Zeitabschnitten das Verhalten der freien Atmosphäre durch nichtadiabatische Erwärmung wesentlich beeinflußt sein kann. Stichprobenweise Berechnungen für eines dieser Gebiete zeigen, daß die theoretisch ermittelte nichtadiabatische Erwärmung für die resultierende Vertikalgeschwindigkeit der Luft quantitativ von ähnlicher Bedeutung ist wie der adiabatische Prozeß.

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Résumé L'auteur a calculé le réchauffement non adiabatique, à grande échelle, de l'atmosphère à 12 niveaux isentropes pendant un intervalle de 12 heures. Une méthode établie parErtel combine l'équation de continuité et les équations de mouvement et aboutit à une relation explicite entre le réchauffement non adiabatique, la vorticity potentielle et la stabilité le long de trajectoires isentropes. Le résultat n'a qu'une exactitude approchée, et cela dans des conditions favorables seulement. On obtient une répartition utilisable du réchauffement non adiabatique au voisinage de la tropopause, du sol, au-dessus d'une couche de nuages ou d'air humide, ainsi qu'à l'intérieur des zones à forte condensation. Dans les régions à grande vorticity anticyclonique et à grande baroclinité, les valeurs calculées deviennent tout à fait inexactes par suite d'une approximation insuffisante et d'erreurs de mesure. Dans les régions à conditions favorables par contre, les valeurs calculées correspondent à celles que l'on peut tirer de la mesure des précipitations ou de celles que l'on mesure au sol, cela au signe et à un facteur 3 près. Le résultat de cette étude montre à nouveau que dans certaines régions ou certains laps de temps l'état de l'atmosphère peut être notablement conditionné par un réchauffement non adiabatique. Des épreuves faites pour l'une de ces régions montrent que le réchauffement non adiabatique obtenu par calcul est quantitativement aussi important pour la vitesse verticale résultante de l'air que le processus adiabatique.

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With 7 Figures     

North Atlantic fisheries: Trends, status and management issues

Despite the fact that the North Atlantic remains one of the most productive of oceanic regions, its importance has declined both relatively and absolutely. A key factor has been the steady erosion of stocks of some of the major food fish species, including the ubiquitous cod. The paper traces the main trends in catches since 1973 and outlines the development of fisheries management in the region from the formation of ICES in 1902, through the creation of coastal state management in the 1970s to the UN Agreement on high-seas fishing in 1995. Finally, the key issues for fisheries management are identified, and the invited papers are contextualised.