Tsunami Probability in the Caribbean Region

We calculated tsunami runup probability (in excess of 0.5 m) at coastal sites throughout the Caribbean region. We applied a Poissonian probability model because of the variety of uncorrelated tsunami sources in the region. Coastlines were discretized into 20 km by 20 km cells, and the mean tsunami runup rate was determined for each cell. The remarkable ~500-year empirical record compiled by O’Loughlin and Lander (2003) was used to calculate an empirical tsunami probability map, the first of three constructed for this study. However, it is unclear whether the 500-year record is complete, so we conducted a seismic moment-balance exercise using a finite-element model of the Caribbean-North American plate boundaries and the earthquake catalog, and found that moment could be balanced if the seismic coupling coefficient is c = 0.32. Modeled moment release was therefore used to generate synthetic earthquake sequences to calculate 50 tsunami runup scenarios for 500-year periods. We made a second probability map from numerically-calculated runup rates in each cell. Differences between the first two probability maps based on empirical and numerical-modeled rates suggest that each captured different aspects of tsunami generation; the empirical model may be deficient in primary plate-boundary events, whereas numerical model rates lack backarc fault and landslide sources. We thus prepared a third probability map using Bayesian likelihood functions derived from the empirical and numerical rate models and their attendant uncertainty to weight a range of rates at each 20 km by 20 km coastal cell. Our best-estimate map gives a range of 30-year runup probability from 0–30% regionally.     

Mesozoic magnetic lineations in the Mozambique Basin

East-west-trending Mesozoic magnetic anomalies M2 through M22 have been identified in the northern Mozambique Basin. These anomalies are best matched by sea floor created at 50°S trending N120°E and spreading at a rate of around 1.5 cm/yr. The northward increase in age inferred from the identifications of these anomalies are compatible with observed decrease in the “reliable” heat flow values from 1.4 to 1.1 μcal/cm² s to the north in the basin. The anomalies terminate in the southern part of the Mozambique Channel against a magnetic quiet zone to the north. Both the Mozambique Basin anomalies and those recently observed off Antarctica are strong evidence in favour of a Gondwanaland reconstruction that places Dronning Maud Land against southern Mozambique, and a late Jurassic or older separation between Africa and Antarctica.     

Mussel reefs on soft sediments: a severely reduced but important habitat for macroinvertebrates and fishes in New Zealand

Green-lipped mussels (Perna canaliculus) formed extensive reefs on soft sediments in sheltered embayments around northern New Zealand until overfishing and/or increased sediment input caused their virtual disappearance by 1980. To determine the role of mussel reefs as habitat for other animals, we located remnant soft-sediment reefs in five locations and compared the density, biomass, productivity and composition of mobile macroinvertebrate communities, and the density of small fishes associated with mussels, with fauna in the surrounding soft sediments. The mussel reefs had a distinct assemblage of macroinvertebrates, which had 3.5 times the density, 3.4 times the biomass and 3.5 times the productivity of surrounding areas. The density of small fishes was 13.7 times higher than in surrounding areas. These results show that soft-sediment mussel reefs support an abundant and productive fauna, highlighting the probable large loss of productivity associated with the historical decline in mussel habitat and the consequent desirability of restoration efforts.     

Television imaging of fast auroral waves

Fast auroral waves have been recorded with an Image Intensifier-TV system and a new characteristic of this phenomenon has been revealed, namely, an abrupt transition from wave motion equatorwards to an E to W motion associated with an auroral band. For equatorward motion speeds ranged from 15 to 150 km/sec which is significantly lower than values previously reported. For the E to W motion speeds ranged from 20 to 90 km/sec.     

Responses of interrill runoff and erosion rates to vegetation change in southern Arizona

Vegetation change, fi-om grassland to shrubland, has occurred over much of the Sonoran and Chihuahuan Deserts during the past century. The effect of this vegetation change on interrill runoff and erosion was examined by conducting rainfall-simulation experiments on large runoff plots on contemporary grassland and shrubland hillslopes. These experiments show that, compared to the grassland, the interrill portions of shrubland hillslopes (1) have higher runoff rates, (2) experience equilibrium runoff conditions much more frequently, (3) exhibit higher overland flow velocities, and (4) are subject to greater rates of erosion. The environmental change that has led to the vegetation change has been relatively minor, but its geomorphic impact has been substantial.     

Risks of shifting baselines highlighted by anecdotal accounts of New Zealand's snapper (Pagrus auratus) fishery

Anecdotal data sources may constitute an important component of the information available about an exploited species, as record keeping may not have occurred until after exploitation began. Here, we aimed to fill any gaps in the exploitative history of the sparid snapper (Pagrus auratus), using social and historical research methods. Social research consisted of interviews with recreational fishers, focusing on the most and largest snapper they had caught. In addition, the diary‐logs of two recreational fishers were analysed. Historical research consisted of investigation of old books, photos, archives and unpublished sources unconventional to fishery science. Interviews with fishers demonstrated no or weak trends in snapper abundance or size, and were likely impeded by a lack of ability to detect change in a fish stock that may still be considered abundant. The fishers’ perception of change, however, largely reflected recent experiences (last c. 10 years), when biomass is understood to have increased, and mostly did not consider experiences before the 1980s. Alternatively, diary‐logs of fisher catch rates produced a pattern that matched formal stock assessments of snapper biomass, suggesting declines in abundance up until the 1990s and an increase in biomass after that time. Historical research, although more qualitative, had the ability to investigate periods where formal records were not kept and described a fishery vastly different from the current one. Snapper were easily caught, in great abundance and in unusual locations. Localised depletion of snapper was first noticed in the early 20th century, despite spectacular catches of snapper occurring after that time. Snapper behaviour was also likely different, with visual sightings of snapper by onlookers a common occurrence. Although predictions from stock assessment models are consistent with that of the anecdotes listed here (i.e., high biomass in the past), these anecdotes are valuable as they explain lost biomass in a perspective meaningful to all. This perspective may be valuable for managers trying to consider the non‐financial value of a shared fishery but, if unrecognised, represents a shifting baseline.