Application of open tools and datasets to probabilistic modeling of road traffic disruptions due to earthquake damage

The disruption of a transportation network can have a high social and economic impact on the welfare of a society, as it can significantly affect the daily routines of a community. Although many studies have focused on the estimation of physical risk in the components that compose these networks, only a limited number have analyzed their interconnections and impact in the traffic flow. The present study analyzes how earthquake damage can disrupt the road network in an urban environment, and how this will influence the ability of the population to travel. Traffic due to daily commutes is modeled for different layouts of the network, corresponding to possible disruptions caused by earthquake damage. The duration and length of each trip were calculated both for the undamaged network conditions and for the disrupted network. The increase in the median duration and length of each trip allows estimating the economic loss for each event due to drivers' delay. By combining the probability of a specific road being blocked with its number of users, the average number of affected vehicles was estimated, and the most critical segments identified. The methodology was applied to a case study concerning the road network of the area around the Italian city of Messina in Sicily. The results were calculated for both a repetition of the well-known historical event of 1908 and a set of simulated earthquakes consistent with the national probabilistic seismic hazard model of Italy.     

Separation of PP- and PS-wave reflected seismic data using two-dimensional finite offset common-reflection-surface traveltime approximation

Recently, the interest in PS-converted waves has increased for several applications, such as sub-basalt layer imaging, impedance estimates and amplitude-versus-offset analysis. In this study, we consider the problem of separation of PP- and PS-waves from pre-stacked multicomponent seismic data in two-dimensional isotropic medium. We aim to demonstrate that the finite-offset common-reflection-surface traveltime approximation is a good alternative for separating PP- and PS-converted waves in common-offset and common shot configurations by considering a two-dimensional isotropic medium. The five parameters of the finite-offset common-reflection-surface are firstly estimated through the inversion methodology called very fast simulated annealing, which estimates all parameters simultaneously. Next, the emergence angle, one of the inverted parameters, is used to build an analytical separation function of PP and PS reflection separation based on the wave polarization equations. Once the PP- and PS-converted waves were separated, the sections are stacked to increase the signal-to-noise ratio using the special curves derived from finite-offset common-reflection-surface approximation. We applied this methodology to a synthetic dataset from simple-layered to complex-structured media. The numerical results showed that the inverted parameters of the finite offset common-reflection-surface and the separation function yield good results for separating PP- and PS-converted waves in noisy common-offset and common shot gathers.     

Highly nonlinear wind waves in Currituck Sound: dense breather turbulence in random ocean waves

Ocean Dynamics - We analyze surface wave data taken in Currituck Sound, North Carolina, during a storm on 4 February 2002. Our focus is on the application of nonlinear Fourier analysis (NLFA)...     

Pseudo- and real-inverted metamorphism caused by the superposition and extrusion of a stack of nappes: a case study of the Southern Brasília Orogen,Brazil

International Journal of Earth Sciences - The Southern Brasília Orogen is a Neoproterozoic belt that occurs along the southernmost border of the São Francisco Craton where the...     

Investigating the molecular systematic relationships amongst selected Plesionika (Decapoda: Pandalidae) from the Northeast Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea

Despite the high number of species and ecological diversity of pandalid shrimps, there has been no previous attempt to resolve evolutionary relationships of several genera using molecular tools. Although mitochondrial DNA cytochrome oxidase I (COI) is widely used in barcoding studies to delimit species boundaries, additional insights into phylogenetic affinities can be obtained, especially when used in combination with data from additional genes. The knowledge of molecular diversity is essential to understand phylogenetic relationships and will help systematic clarifications. Based on partial fragments of the 16S and COI genes, we have focused specifically on addressing the systematic relationships of the economically and ecologically important shrimp genus Plesionika within a framework of five genera from within the Pandalidae. Our results showed that species within Plesionika are substantially divergent when compared with other genera, exhibiting the highest average nucleotide divergence, with 0.1123 and 0.0846 in COI and 16S genes, respectively. In addition, sequence divergence was found to vary greatly within the genus Plesionika (COI/16S): 0.0247/0.0016 between Plesionika antigai and Plesionika heterocarpus and 0.1616/0.098 between Plesionika heterocarpus and Plesionika edwardsii. We did not find amino acid sequence divergence between P. heterocarpus and P. antigai compared with P. heterocarpus and P. edwardsii (8.10%, K2P distance). Three species of Plesionika (P. antigai, P. heterocarpus and Plesionika scopifera) appear well separated from other Plesionika species in both maximum likelihood and Bayesian analyses. The present study confirms the utility of COI over 16S as a genetic marker to resolve relationships between different species of Plesionika from the Northeast Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea, in addition to species delimitation. The findings highlight the need to further review paraphyly within Plesionika in an attempt to recognize a concordance in the evolutionary history of Plesionika with major ecological and geological events.     

Analysis of the Characteristics of Low-Latitude GPS Amplitude Scintillation Measured During Solar Maximum Conditions and Implications for Receiver Performance

Ionospheric scintillations are fluctuations in the phase and/or amplitude of trans-ionospheric radio signals caused by electron density irregularities in the ionosphere. A better understanding of the scintillation pattern is important to make a better assessment of GPS receiver performance, for instance. Additionally, scintillation can be used as a tool for remote sensing of ionospheric irregularities. Therefore, the study of ionospheric scintillation has both scientific as well as technological implications. In the past few years, there has been a significant advance in the methods for analysis of scintillation and in our understanding of the impact of scintillation on GPS receiver performance. In this work, we revisit some of the existing methods of analysis of scintillation, propose an alternative approach, and apply these techniques in a comprehensive study of the characteristics of amplitude scintillation. This comprehensive study made use of 32?days of high-rate (50?Hz) measurements made by a GPS-based scintillation monitor located in S?o José dos Campos, Brazil (23.2°S, 45.9°W, ?17.5° dip latitude) near the Equatorial Anomaly during high solar flux conditions. The variability of the decorrelation time (τ₀) of scintillation patterns is presented as a function of scintillation severity index (S ₄). We found that the values of τ₀ tend to decrease with the increase of S ₄, confirming the results of previous studies. In addition, we found that, at least for the measurements made during this campaign, averaged values of τ₀ (for fixed S ₄ index values) did not vary much as a function of local time. Our results also indicate a significant impact of τ₀ in the GPS carrier loop performance for S ₄?≥?0.7. An alternative way to compute the probability of cycle slip that takes into account the fading duration time is also presented. The results of this approach show a 38% probability of cycle slips during strong scintillation scenarios (S ₄ close to 1 and τ₀ near 0.2?s). Finally, we present results of an analysis of the individual amplitude fades observed in our set of measurements. This analysis suggests that users operating GPS receivers with C/N ₀ thresholds around 30?dB-Hz and above can be affected significantly by low-latitude scintillation.     

Experimental testing, numerical modelling and seismic strengthening of traditional stone masonry: comprehensive study of a real Azorian pier

Stone masonry is one of the oldest building techniques used worldwide and it is known to exhibit poor behaviour under seismic excitations. In this context, this work aims at assessing the in-plane behaviour of an existing double-leaf stone masonry pier by experimental testing. Additionally, a detailed 3D finite element numerical analysis based on micro-modelling of the original pier is presented (fully describing the geometry and division of each individual elements, namely infill, blocks and joints) aiming at simulating the experimental test results. This numerical strategy can be seen as an alternative way of analysing this type of constructions, particularly useful for laboratory studies, and suitable for the calibration of simplified numerical models. As part of a wider research activity, this work is further complemented with the presentation of an effective retrofit/strengthening technique (reinforced connected plaster) to achieve a significant improvement of its in-plane cyclic response which is experimentally verified in the results presented herein.     

Performance of masonry enclosure walls: lessons learned from recent earthquakes

This paper discusses the issue of performance requirements and construction criteria for masonry enclosure and infill walls.Vertical building enclosures in European countries are very often constituted by non-load-bearing masonry walls, using horizontally perforated clay bricks.These walls are generally supported and confined by a reinforced concrete frame structure of columns and beams/slabs.Since these walls are commonly considered to be nonstructural elements and their influence on the structural response is ignored,their consideration in the design of structures as well as their connection to the adjacent structural elements is frequently negligent or insufficiently detailed.As a consequence,nonstructural elements,as for wall enclosures,are relatively sensitive to drift and acceleration demands when buildings are subjected to seismic actions. Many international standards and technical documents stress the need for design acceptability criteria for nonstructural elements,however they do not specifically indicate how to prevent collapse and severe cracking,and how to enhance the overall stability in the case of moderate to high seismic loading.Furthermore,a review of appropriate measures to improve enclosure wall performance and both in-plane and out-of-plane integrity under seismic actions is addressed.     

BET_VH: exploring the influence of natural uncertainties on long-term hazard from tephra fallout at Campi Flegrei (Italy)

In this paper, we explore the effects of the intrinsic uncertainties upon long-term volcanic hazard by analyzing tephra fall hazard at Campi Flegrei, Italy, using the BET_VH model described in Marzocchi et al. (Bull Volcanol, 2010). The results obtained show that volcanic hazard based on the weighted average of all possible eruptive settings (i.e. size classes and vent locations) is significantly different from an analysis based on a single reference setting, as commonly used in volcanic hazard practice. The long-term hazard map for tephra fall at Campi Flegrei obtained here accounts for a wide spectrum of uncertainties which are usually neglected, largely reducing the bias intrinsically introduced by the choice of a specific reference setting. We formally develop and apply a general method to recursively integrate simulations from different models which have different characteristics in terms of spatial coverage, resolution and physical details. This outcome of simulations will be eventually merged with field data through the use of the BET_VH model.     

Diatom community dynamics in a tropical,monsoon-influenced environment: West coast of India

Diatom communities are influenced by environmental perturbations, such as the monsoon system that impact the niche opportunities of species. To discern the influence of the monsoon system on diatom community structure, we sampled during two consecutive post-monsoons (2001 and 2002) and the intervening pre-monsoon at Mumbai and Jawaharlal Nehru ports along the central west coast of India. Characteristic temporal shifts in diatom community structure were observed across the sampling periods; these were mainly driven by temperature, salinity and dissolved oxygen saturation. The nutrient-poor pre-monsoon period supported low abundance yet high species richness and diversity of diatoms. Coscinodiscus, Cyclotella, Thalassiosira, Triceratium, Pleurosigma, Skeletonema and Surirella were the most dominant genera. Both the post-monsoon periods, following dissimilar monsoon events, were dominated by Skeletonema costatum, but differed in some of the residual species. Thalassiosira and Thalassionema spp. dominated mostly during post-monsoon I whereas Triceratium and Pleurosigma spp. dominated during post-monsoon II. To understand the underlying ecological mechanisms involved in such dynamics, we focus on the dominant diatom species in post-monsoon periods, S. costatum, that contributes up to 60% to total diatom cell numbers. This research is relevant in light of the fluctuating monsoon regimes over the Asian continent, the confounding effects of anthropogenic eutrophication and the resulting cascading effects on trophic web dynamics.