Seismic hazard analysis in zones of time and space interdependence: An application to S?o Miguel Island, Azores

The Azores Islands are located in the mid-Atlantic region near the triple junction where the Euro-Asiatic-African-American plates join together. Seismic activity in the area is very high, as can be observed either from historical events since the fifteenth century, from present day microseismicity, and from direct and indirect measurements of recent tectonic deformation. Volcanic activity is also present throughout the region.All available information, even data exhibiting low quality, was used to develop hazard models of São Miguel Island. Source zones were established based on both the global tectonic behaviour of the region and on the local active fault structures. Recurrence laws for São Miguel Island, for which historical information seemed quite incomplete, were obtained from the large events in the entire archipelago and from their remarkable pattern of time and space dependence, and complimented by information on long-term fault deformation (for the longer recurrence periods) and on high precision instrumental network (for the very short recurrence periods).Attenuation laws were derived from data on events felt and/or recorded in the Island.Hazard maps were obtained through a modified version of McGuire's algorithm for several geometries of source areas and results compared with the maximum observed intensity of historical events.Abstract presented at the 21st General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission held in Sofia, 1988.     

Multiple Random Walk Simulation: A Fast Method to Map Grade Uncertainty with Large Datasets

Multiple Random Walk Simulation consists of a methodology adapted to run fast simulations if close-spaced data are abundant (e.g., short-term mining models). Combining kriging with the simulation of random walks attempts to approximate traditional simulation algorithm results but at a computationally faster way when there is a large amount of conditioning samples. This paper presents this new algorithm illustrating the situations where the method can be used properly. A synthetic study case is presented in order to illustrate the Multiple Random Walk Simulation and to analyze the speed and goodness of its results against the ones from using Turning Bands Simulation and Sequential Gaussian Simulation.     

Is LkHα 264 like a young, extremely active Sun?

We combine calibrated International Ultraviolet Explorer ( IUE ) archive data and new low-resolution optical data for the T Tauri star LkH α 264 covering the region from 1200 to 7000 Å. The UV continuum is well fitted by the combination of a blackbody at 4300 K plus hydrogenic free–free and free–bound emission from a dense plasma at 3.5×10⁴ K plus the emission by a second blackbody. This last component is at T ≈8700 K and covers about 4 per cent of the stellar surface. We interpret this last component to be the result of emission from one or various hotspots. The interesting result is that this combined emission also fits the observed optical continuum well. We conclude that this star is an analogue of the Sun, however displaying a much higher level of activity.     

Assessing the potential for future explosive activity from Teide–Pico Viejo stratovolcanoes (Tenerife,Canary Islands)

Since the onset of their eruptive activity within the Cañadas caldera, about 180 ka ago, Teide–Pico Viejo stratovolcanoes have mainly produced lava flow eruptions of basaltic to phonoltic magmas. The products from these eruptions partially fill the caldera, and the adjacent Icod and La Orotava valleys, to the north. Although less frequent, explosive eruptions have also occurred at these composite volcanoes. In order to assess the possible evolution Teide–Pico Viejo stratovolcanoes and their potential for future explosive activity, we have analysed their recent volcanic history, assuming that similar episodes have the highest probability of occurrence in the near future. Explosive activity during the last 35000 years has been associated with the eruption of both, mafic (basalts, tephro–phonolites) and felsic (phono–tephrites and phonolites) magmas and has included strombolian, violent strombolian and sub-plinian magmatic eruptions, as well as phreatomagmatic eruptions of mafic magmas. Explosive eruptions have occurred both from central and flank vents, ranging in size from 0.001 to 0.1 km³ for the mafic eruptions and from 0.01 to < 1 km³ for the phonolitic ones. Comparison of the Teide–Pico Viejo stratovolcanoes with the previous cycles of activity from the central complex reveals that all them follow a similar pattern in the petrological evolution but that there is a significant difference in the eruptive behaviour of these different periods of central volcanism on Tenerife. Pre-Teide central activity is mostly characterised by large-volume (1–> 20 km³, DRE) eruptions of phonolitic magmas while Teide–Pico Viejo is dominated by effusive eruptions. These differences can be explained in terms of the different degree of evolution of Teide–Pico Viejo compared to the preceding cycles and, consequently, in the different pre-eruptive conditions of the corresponding phonolitic magmas. A clear interaction between the basaltic and phonolitic systems is observed from the products of phonolitic eruptions, indicating that basaltic magmatism is the driving force of the phonolitic eruptive activity. The magmatic evolution of Teide–Pico Viejo stratovolcanoes will continue in the future with a probably tendency to produce a major volume of phonolitic magmas, with an increasing explosive potential. Therefore, the explosive potential of Teide–Pico Viejo cannot be neglected and should be considered in hazard assessment on Tenerife.     

Application of open tools and datasets to probabilistic modeling of road traffic disruptions due to earthquake damage

The disruption of a transportation network can have a high social and economic impact on the welfare of a society, as it can significantly affect the daily routines of a community. Although many studies have focused on the estimation of physical risk in the components that compose these networks, only a limited number have analyzed their interconnections and impact in the traffic flow. The present study analyzes how earthquake damage can disrupt the road network in an urban environment, and how this will influence the ability of the population to travel. Traffic due to daily commutes is modeled for different layouts of the network, corresponding to possible disruptions caused by earthquake damage. The duration and length of each trip were calculated both for the undamaged network conditions and for the disrupted network. The increase in the median duration and length of each trip allows estimating the economic loss for each event due to drivers' delay. By combining the probability of a specific road being blocked with its number of users, the average number of affected vehicles was estimated, and the most critical segments identified. The methodology was applied to a case study concerning the road network of the area around the Italian city of Messina in Sicily. The results were calculated for both a repetition of the well-known historical event of 1908 and a set of simulated earthquakes consistent with the national probabilistic seismic hazard model of Italy.     

Correction to: Spatial distribution and estimation of rainfall trends and erosivity in the Epitácio Pessoa reservoir catchment,Paraíba,Brazil

Natural Hazards - The article “Spatial distribution and estimation of rainfall trends and erosivity in the Epitácio Pessoa reservoir catchment, Paraíba, Brazil”, written by da...     

Lake sedimentary processes and vegetation changes over the last 45k cal a bp in the uplands of south-eastern Amazonia

This study addresses paleoclimate influences in a southern Amazonia ecotone based on multiproxy records from lakes of the Carajás region during the last 45k cal a bp. Wet and cool environmental conditions marked the initial deposition in shallow depressions with detrital sediments and high weathering rates until 40k cal a bp. Concomitantly, forest and C3 canga plants, along with cool-adapted taxa, developed; however, short drier episodes enabled expansion of C4 plants and diagenetic formation of siderite. A massive event of siderite formation occurred approximately 30k cal a bp under strong drier conditions. Afterwards, wet and cool environmental conditions returned and persisted until the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The LGM was marked by lake-level lowstands and subaerial exposure. The transition from the LGM to the Holocene is marked by the onset of oscillations in temperature and humidity, with an expansion of forest and canga plants. Cool taxa were present for the last time in the Carajás region ~ 9.5–9k cal a bp. After 10k cal a bp , shallow lakes became upland swamps due to natural infilling processes, but the current vegetation types and structures of the plateaus were acquired only after 3k cal a bp under wetter climatic conditions.     

Pseudo- and real-inverted metamorphism caused by the superposition and extrusion of a stack of nappes: a case study of the Southern Brasília Orogen,Brazil

International Journal of Earth Sciences - The Southern Brasília Orogen is a Neoproterozoic belt that occurs along the southernmost border of the São Francisco Craton where the...     

BET_VH: exploring the influence of natural uncertainties on long-term hazard from tephra fallout at Campi Flegrei (Italy)

In this paper, we explore the effects of the intrinsic uncertainties upon long-term volcanic hazard by analyzing tephra fall hazard at Campi Flegrei, Italy, using the BET_VH model described in Marzocchi et al. (Bull Volcanol, 2010). The results obtained show that volcanic hazard based on the weighted average of all possible eruptive settings (i.e. size classes and vent locations) is significantly different from an analysis based on a single reference setting, as commonly used in volcanic hazard practice. The long-term hazard map for tephra fall at Campi Flegrei obtained here accounts for a wide spectrum of uncertainties which are usually neglected, largely reducing the bias intrinsically introduced by the choice of a specific reference setting. We formally develop and apply a general method to recursively integrate simulations from different models which have different characteristics in terms of spatial coverage, resolution and physical details. This outcome of simulations will be eventually merged with field data through the use of the BET_VH model.