Gaussian Processes for history-matching: application to an unconventional gas reservoir

The process of reservoir history-matching is a costly task. Many available history-matching algorithms either fail to perform such a task or they require a large number of simulation runs. To overcome such struggles, we apply the Gaussian Process (GP) modeling technique to approximate the costly objective functions and to expedite finding the global optima. A GP model is a proxy, which is employed to model the input-output relationships by assuming a multi-Gaussian distribution on the output values. An infill criterion is used in conjunction with a GP model to help sequentially add the samples with potentially lower outputs. The IC fault model is used to compare the efficiency of GP-based optimization method with other typical optimization methods for minimizing the objective function. In this paper, we present the applicability of using a GP modeling approach for reservoir history-matching problems, which is exemplified by numerical analysis of production data from a horizontal multi-stage fractured tight gas condensate well. The results for the case that is studied here show a quick convergence to the lowest objective values in less than 100 simulations for this 20-dimensional problem. This amounts to an almost 10 times faster performance compared to the Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm that is also known to be a powerful optimization technique. The sensitivities are conducted to explain the performance of the GP-based optimization technique with various correlation functions.     

Numerical modelling assessment of climate-change impacts and mitigation measures on the Querença-Silves coastal aquifer (Algarve,Portugal)

Predicted changes in climate will lead to seawater intrusion in the Querença-Silves (QS) coastal aquifer (south Portugal) during the coming century if the current water-resource-management strategy is maintained. As for much of the Mediterranean, average rainfall is predicted to decrease along with increasing seasonal and inter-annual variability and there is a need to understand how these changes will affect the sustainable use of groundwater resources. A density-coupled flow and transport model of the QS was used to simulate an ensemble of climate, water-use and adaptation scenarios from 2010 to 2099 taking into account intra- and inter-annual variability in recharge and groundwater use. By considering several climate models, bias correction and recharge calculation methods, a degree of uncertainty was included. Changes in rainfall regimes will have an immediate effect on groundwater discharge; however, the effect on saltwater intrusion is attenuated by the freshwater–saltwater interfaces’ comparatively slow rate of movement. Comparing the effects of adaptation measures demonstrates that the extent of intrusion in the QS is controlled by the long-term water budget, as the effectiveness of both demand and supply oriented measures is proportional to the change in water budget, and that to maintain the current position, average groundwater discharge should be in the order of 50 × 10⁶ m³ yr^?1.     

Relationship between geoacoustic properties and chemical content of submarine polymetallic crusts from offshore Brazil

Abstract

Marine mining is the ocean’s new exploration frontier, and polymetallic crusts (PMCs) and ferromanganese nodules are considered a strategic resource for the future. Acoustic geophysical methods are a valuable tool for oceanic research and have been employed for several decades in the exploration of marine resources and environmental evaluations. The main objective of this work was to investigate the correlation between the chemical composition of PMCs from three different areas along the Brazilian continental margin and their physico-acoustic attributes (P-wave velocity, density and acoustic impedance). The results show that the geoacoustic properties of PMCs are correlated to their chemical composition. Measurements showed positive and negative trends between acoustic impedance and studied elements (Fe, Mn, Co, Cu, Zn, W and Ni) according to the direction of measurement, indicting high anisotropy levels. Our study sheds initial light on the correlation between acoustic properties and metal content of PMCs. The study facilitates assessments of the acoustic responses of PMCs allowing more efficient prospection and exploitation compared to ship-board geophysical techniques that are too qualitative to identify PMCs. The results can contribute to determining the best procedures and techniques for more efficient future exploration of this resource.     

Design of a high performance variable structure position control ofROVs

An adaptive control scheme for dynamic positioning (DP) of remotely operated underwater vehicles (ROV) is proposed based on a recently developed output feedback variable structure control (VSC) algorithm named VS-MRAC. Only position measurement is required. Precise modeling of the ROV is not needed and unmodeled perturbations can be effectively rejected. A simple method for discretizing the original continuous-time VS-MRAC is proposed based on dead-beat response. Other important practical implementation issues are considered. The performance is evaluated by simulation with a realistic ROV model and by full-scale experimental pool tests with an actual ROV     

A method for arc-second determination of solar burst emission centers with high time resolution and sensitivity at 48 GHz

A 48 GHz five-radiometer front end was installed at the Cassegrain focus of the 13.7-m Itapetinga antenna for the observation of solar bursts. The system works with five beam patterns partly overlapping. The five antenna temperatures are recorded with a temporal resolution of 1 millisecond, including time and antenna position. The ratios of the incoming antenna signals are used to determine the centroid of burst emission. Its coordinates are determined from groups of three receivers by using a least-square fit. In favourable observing conditions we obtain an angular accuracy of about 2 arc sec (r.m.s.), with a time resolution of 1 ms and a sensitivity of 0.05 s.f.u. The accuracy of the antenna tracking, the absolute pointing and the quality of radio seeing at Itapetinga are discussed. A preliminary analysis of an impulsive solar burst event is used to illustrate the capabilities of the method described here.     

GEOGRAPHIC GEOMORPHOLOGY IN THE EIGHTIES

The geomorphic sciences will continue to be dynamic in the coming decade. Among other developments, there is a trend toward increased dependence on field reserch, more realistic expectations from reserch tools, a resurgence of interest in man-land relations with a renewed dependence on the historical approach, a reinvestigation of morphogenetic regions, study of planetary surfaces other than earth's, and involvement with applied problems, as well as cooperation and collaboration with scientists in related fields. The greatest need is the development of connections between academic and nonacademic geographers at all levels.     

Quaternary intraplate deformation in the southeastern Sierras Pampeanas, Argentina

Neogene strain from the subducting Nazca plate is widely distributed in theAndean foreland as a result of flat-lying subduction beneath central westernArgentina (28^°–33^°S latitude). This fact is indicated byuplifted basement blocks bounded by reverse faults as far as 600 kms eastof the Chilean trench axis. Some deformation in the southern Sierras deCórdoba (southeastern Sierras Pampeanas) indicates significantdisplacements during Quaternary and even late Holocene time. Thisregion has low to moderate seismicity characterized by earthquakemagnitudes 6.7 with no associated noticeable surface ruptures.This paper presents information recently gathered on the most conspicuousregional structures of the area (El Molino, Sierra Chica and Las Lagunasfaults). The last movement along the El Molino fault thrust basement rocksover organic-rich (0.8–1.3 ka) sediment and fault relationships suggestprevious Quaternary displacements. Along the Sierra Chica fault,Precambrian basement has been thrust a minimum of 13.5 m overPleistocene conglomerates, and faulting also affects latePleistocene-Holocene fluvial sediments. The Las Lagunas fault has beenregarded as the source of the 1934 Ms 5.5 and 6.0 earthquakes, whichheavily damaged the nearby village of Sampacho. The faulted surface isburied under Holocene loess, but its trace is expressed as a 24-km-longrectilinear scarp, despite continuous modification due to land use.Although we lack detailed information on probable rupture lengths duringlarge Sierras Pampeanas thrust earthquakes, some preliminary considerationsare made for the regional seismic hazard of these structures. The geologicevidence described here identifies these faults as possible sources of strongearthquakes in the future.     

Holocene environmental change on the Atlantic coast of NW Iberia as inferred from the Ponzos wetland sequence

The intertidal environment of the Ponzos beach (NW Iberian Peninsula) hosts a sedimentary sequence (including large wood fragments) deposited during the first half of the Holocene in a hygrophilous continental wetland. Pollen and macrofossil data alongside radiocarbon dating allow reconstruction of the changes that occurred during the Early and Middle Holocene in the landscape of the NW Iberia coastal lowlands, as well as the local wetland plant communities, in response to the climate variations and the eustatic sea-level oscillations. The sequence represents the evolution of a coastal wetland from its initial phases as a hygrophilous wetland towards the subsequent installation of a freshwater lagoon. Pollen data show the dominant role of Atlantic (mainly deciduous) woody taxa, the scarcity of conifers and the lack of Mediterranean elements in the coastal landscapes around the Ponzos site. The presence and abundance of some taxa such as deciduous Quercus, Castanea, Fagus, Tilia and Ulmus during the Early Holocene provides further support for the occurrence of glacial refuges in the Cantabrian-Atlantic area during the Last Glaciation. The diverse vegetation that characterizes the modern landscapes in this territory established later, spreading from these glacial reservoirs of biodiversity. In this sense, the notable and early presence of Fagus at the beginning of the Holocene, a tree also previously recorded during several phases of the Last Glacial Cycle on the NW Iberia coasts, is noteworthy. In addition, during the Early and Middle Holocene are recorded other trees that are currently extirpated as natural taxa in the area, such as Pinus, Tilia and Carpinus.