新疆轮台5．1级地震前地下流体前兆异常的分析

1999年9月23日在新疆轮台东北发生了Ms≥5．1级地震。震前,北天山地区地下流体相继监测到了大量的前兆异常。据此,我们对该地震做出了较好的短期预测。     

1990年代长江中下游地区多雨的机制分析

对长江中下游地区３２个测站１９５１以来的降水记录以及上海、南京等６个站１２０年降水序列的分析表明,１９９０年代是长江中下游地区百年来降水最多的１０年。降水的偏多导致洪涝发生的频率及强度都加强。最近１２０年中１２次异常多雨的年份,出现在１９９０年代的就有４次。１９５１年以来的６个异常多雨夏季个例的合成分析表明,与洪涝直接相联系的大气环流形式是在江南有偏强的向北经向风及水汽输送异常,而在华北及偏北地区     

Fine-scale Microbial Communities Associated with Manganese Nodules in Deep-sea Sediment of the Korea Deep Ocean Study Area in the Northeast Equatorial Pacific

Despite its potential significance for industrial utilization, any activities associated with the mining of manganese (Mn) nodules might have substantial impacts on benthic ecosystems. Because microorganisms respond quickly to changing environmental conditions, a study of microbial communities provides a relevant proxy to assess possible changes in benthic ecosystems associated with mining activities. We investigated fine-scale microbial community composition and diversity inside and on the surface of Mn nodules and in nearby deep-sea sediments in the Korea Deep Ocean Study (KODOS) area located in the Clarion-Clipperton Fracture Zone (CCFZ) of the northeast equatorial Pacific. Although microbial cell density was lower within nodules (3.21 × 10⁶ cells g^-1) than in sediment (2.14 × 10⁸ cells g^-1), nodules provided a unique habitat for microorganisms. Manganese-oxidizing bacteria including Hyphomicrobium and Aurantimonas in Alphaproteobacteria and Marinobacter in Gammaproteobacteria were abundant in nodules, which implied that these bacteria play a significant role in nodule formation. In contrast, Idiomarina in Gammaproteobacteria and Erythrobacter and Sulfitobacter in Alphaproteobacteria were abundant in sediments. Meanwhile, Thaumarchaeota, a phylum that consists of ammonia-oxidizing chemolithoautotrophs, were the predominant archaeal group both in nodules and sediment. Overall, microbial communities in Mn nodules were unique compared to those observed in sediments. Furthermore, the phylogenetic composition of microorganisms in the KODOS area was distinguishable from that in the nodule provinces claimed by China and Germany in the CCFZ and nodule fields in the central South Pacific Gyre, respectively.     

Predicting tsunami arrivals: Estimates and policy implications

Tsunami is one of a few kinds of natural disasters that leave people some time for escape. This escape time, which is essentially the time for the giant wave to propagate from the epicentre to a coast, has to be estimated without delay upon the occurrence of the incident. With the advancement of water wave theories, much work has been done to model the propagation of tsunamis from deep oceans to shallow water. The authors argue that while much emphasis has been put on the expansion of the high-tech early warning system and the development of complicated tsunami models, a simple-to-use yet accurate predictive model is still wanting. This paper presents a handy linear wave model, which is capable of estimating the arrival time of a tsunami with very good accuracy, as has been verified by comparison with past incidents. With the availability of such a simple model, even local communities without access to a high-tech warning system can readily estimate the time left for emergency evacuation.     

基于乡村多功能评价的城市边缘区“三生”空间划分研究

城市边缘区乡村多元价值凸显,迫切需以乡村多功能理论为指导划分“三生”空间,以空间重构促进转型发展。论文首先从生产、生活与生态功能方面评价城市边缘区多功能时空变化;其次进行图斑尺度“三生”空间适宜性评价,两者共同得到基于乡村多功能的“三生”空间适宜性;最后据此设计算法划分“三生”空间。研究发现：① 城市边缘区乡村休闲娱乐、观光农业等功能显现,需要重构多功能空间促进转型发展;② 江苏徐州市铜山区乡村非农生产与生活功能主要分布在与中心城区较近地区,农业空间主要分布在中心城区远郊外围,生态功能则表现出高度空间异质性,农业、非农生产与生活功能在提升,而生态功能则普遍下降;③ 县域“三生”空间划定需多尺度联合,既要考虑乡镇尺度多功能差异,还要体现图斑尺度适宜性,才能为空间规划提供有意义的借鉴。论文提出的基于乡村多功能评价的“三生”空间划分可为即将开展的国土空间规划提供科学依据。     

Mining spatial associations between daily activities and health using EMA–GPS data

The geographical explicit ecological momentary assessment (GEMA) data collection platform provides extremely rich geospatial datasets and is very promising to gain behavior insights linking mobility, activities, and health. However, the task of analyzing these large datasets effectively is not straightforward, because they often involve a large multivariable dimension and rich qualitative data formats. Responding to the call for innovative analytic approaches in GIScience, this article advocates the use of spatial association rule mining (SARM) to extract frequent associations among daily activities, daily mobility, and health, including both physical health (e.g. pain) and mental health (e.g. happiness). This inductive mining approach works robustly with large datasets and is suitable for both qualitative and quantitative studies. A novel visualization technique to analyze the mined rules is also developed and presented.     

Anisotropic porothermoelastic solution and hydro‐thermal effects on fracture width in hydraulic fracturing

In this study, the effects of the temperature difference between hydraulic fracturing fluid and rock formation on the time‐dependent evolution of fracture width were investigated using a newly derived one‐dimensional anisotropic porothermoelastic analytical solution. The solution is shown to correctly reproduce existing solutions for special cases and corrections for an earlier publication are provided. An analysis of time‐dependent fracture width evolution using Woodford Shale data was also presented. It was found that when the fracturing fluid has the same temperature as the shale formation, the fracture gradually closes back after the initial opening due to the invasion of the fracturing fluid. Practically, in this scenario, proppants should be pumped into the fracture as soon as possible to obtain maximum fracture conductivity. On the other hand, with a fracturing fluid 60 °C colder than the formation, the thermal contraction of the rock dominates the fracture aperture evolution, resulting in a fracture aperture approximately 70% larger than that produced by the hotter fracturing fluid. Consequently, in this case, it is beneficial to delay proppant placement to take advantage of the widening fractures. Finally, it was found that the fracture aperture is directly controlled by the spacing of natural fractures. Therefore, the presence of natural fractures in the shale formation and their spacing influence not only the type of hydraulic fractures created but also what kind and size of proppants should be used to keep them open. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

High resolution velocity analysis of watergun wide angle reflection data

Two seismic lines each approximately 10km in length were shot over an isolated approximately 250m thick sediment pond on the flanks of the mid-Atlantic Ridge. The source was a 1.32 liter watergun and the receiver was the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Digital Ocean Bottom Hydrophone (DOBH). The data were recorded at a sampling rate of 1800 Hz to take full advantage of the high band width source. Analysis was carried out by computing semblance and stack values along T-X trajectories defined in three ways: firstly the conventional hyperbolic stack, secondly the accurate ray traced travel time curve computed assuming isovelocity layering and finally the accurate travel time curve computed assuming a single layer of constant linear gradient. This last option yielded significantly higher values of coherency for the true basement reflection although all our analyses were marred by side reflection interference from the surrounding rough topography. The maximum semblance value obtained for the basement reflection in the linear gradient case was 0.38 for 120 shots, with the peak of both the semblance and the stack occurring at a gradient of 1.9s⁻¹. This work illustrates the capability of a water gun source combined with a high bandwidth receiver and quantitative velocity analysis techniques, to produce high resolution determinations of sediment velocity structure.     

地热异常与地震活动关系的综合分析

根据地球内部热状况及震源热力学理论,分析了全球地热带与地震活动带之间的密切关系。指出我国1966年—1988年强震(Ms≥7.0)多发生在地热异常区的边缘(两端和两侧)及两个相近热区之间的地热梯度带。认为区域热流动态的分布特征是地震危险区的重要判别指标之一,与构造活动断裂有关的深井,温泉的温度变化可能是地热异常显示的灵敏“窗口”。     

Co-use of existing scenario sets to extend and quantify the shared socioeconomic pathways

More often than not, assessments of future climate risks are based on future climatic conditions superimposed on current socioeconomic conditions only. The new IPCC-guided alternative global development trends, the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), have the potential to enhance the integration of future socioeconomic conditions—in the form of socioeconomic scenarios—within assessments of future climate risks. Being global development pathways, the SSPs lack regional and sectoral details. To increase their suitability in sectoral and/or regional studies and their relevance for local stakeholders, the SSPs have to be extended. We propose here a new method to extend the SSPs that makes use of existing scenario studies, the (re)use of which has been underestimated so far. Our approach lies in a systematic matching of multiple scenario sets that facilitates enrichment of the global SSPs with regional and sectoral information, in terms of both storylines and quantitative projections. We apply this method to develop extended SSPs of human vulnerability in Europe and to quantify them for a number of key indicators at the sub-national level up to 2050, based on the co-use of the matched scenarios’ quantitative outputs. Results show that such a method leads to internally consistent extended SSPs with detailed and highly quantified narratives that are tightly linked to global contexts. This method also provides multiple entry points where the relevance of scenarios to local stakeholders can be tested and strengthened. The extended SSPs can be readily employed to explore future populations’ vulnerability to climate hazards under varying levels of socioeconomic development.