Psychohistory revisited: fundamental issues in forecasting climate futures

Uncertainty in the trajectories of the global energy and economic systems vexes the climate science community. While it is tempting to reduce uncertainty by searching for deterministic rules governing the link between energy consumption and economic output, this article discusses some of the problems that follow from such an approach. We argue that the theoretical and empirical evidence supports the view that energy and economic systems are dynamic, and unlikely to be predictable via the application of simple rules. Encouraging more research seeking to reduce uncertainty in forecasting would likely be valuable, but any results should reflect the tentative and exploratory nature of the subject matter.     

Role of temporal resolution of meteorological inputs for process‐based snow modelling

Accurate snow accumulation and melt simulations are crucial for understanding and predicting hydrological dynamics in mountainous settings. As snow models require temporally varying meteorological inputs, time resolution of these inputs is likely to play an important role on the model accuracy. Because meteorological data at a fine temporal resolution (~1 hr) are generally not available in many snow‐dominated settings, it is important to evaluate the role of meteorological inputs temporal resolution on the performance of process‐based snow models. The objective of this work is to assess the loss in model accuracy with temporal resolution of meteorological inputs, for a range of climatic conditions and topographic elevations. To this end, a process‐based snow model was run using 1‐, 3‐, and 6‐hourly inputs for wet, average, and dry years over Boise River Basin (6,963 km²), which spans rain dominated (≤1,400 m), rain–snow transition (>1,400 and ≤1,900 m), snow dominated below tree line (>1,900 and ≤2,400 m), and above tree line (>2,400 m) elevations. The results show that sensitivity of the model accuracy to the inputs time step generally decreases with increasing elevation from rain dominated to snow dominated above tree line. Using longer than hourly inputs causes substantial underestimation of snow cover area (SCA) and snow water equivalent (SWE) in rain‐dominated and rain–snow transition elevations, due to the precipitation phase mischaracterization. In snow‐dominated elevations, the melt rate is underestimated due to errors in estimation of net snow cover energy input. In addition, the errors in SCA and SWE estimates generally decrease toward years with low snow mass, that is, dry years. The results indicate significant increases in errors in estimates of SCA and SWE as the temporal resolution of meteorological inputs becomes coarser than an hour. However, use of 3‐hourly inputs can provide accurate estimates at snow‐dominated elevations. The study underscores the need to record meteorological variables at an hourly time step for accurate process‐based snow modelling.     

Linking hydrological variations at local scales to regional climate teleconnection patterns

Climate patterns over preceding years affect seasonal water and moisture conditions. The linkage between regional climate and local hydrology is challenging due to scale differences, both spatially and temporally. In this study, variance, correlation, and singular spectrum analyses were conducted to identify multiple hydroclimatic phases during which climate teleconnection patterns were related to hydrology of a small headwater basin in Idaho, USA. Combined field observations and simulations from a physically based hydrological model were used for this purpose. Results showed statistically significant relations between climate teleconnection patterns and hydrological fluxes in the basin, and climate indices explained up to 58% of hydrological variations. Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Pacific North America (PNA) patterns affected mountain hydrology, in that order, by decreasing annual runoff and rain on snow (ROS) runoff by 43% and 26% during a positive phase of NAO and 25% and 9% during a positive phase of PNA. AAO showed a significant association with the rainfall-to-precipitation ratio and explained 49% of its interannual variation. The runoff response was affected by the phase of climate variability indices and the legacy of past atmospheric conditions. Specifically, a switch in the phase of the teleconnection patterns of NAO and PNA caused a transition from wet to dry conditions in the basin. Positive AAO showed no relation with peak snow water equivalent and ROS runoff in the same year, but AAO in the preceding year explained 24 and 25% (p < 0.05) of their variations, suggesting that the past atmospheric patterns are equally important as the present conditions in affecting local hydrology. Areas sheltered from the wind and acted as a source for snow transport showed the lowest (40% below normal) ROS runoff generation, which was associated with positive NAO that explained 33% (p < 0.01) of its variation. The findings of this research highlighted the importance of hydroclimatic phases and multiple year variations that must be considered in hydrological forecasts, climate projections, and water resources planning.     

The Structure and the Partial Opacity of the Spiral Shocks on the Novalike Cataclysmic Variables

V347 Pup is the first novalike system with clear spiral arms in its accretion disc, as evidenced from its HeI Doppler maps. Combining the Doppler maps of the various lines of the system V347 Pup a more complex structure is revealed on the first arm. On the Doppler maps of HeI λ5875 emission line the first arm splits to two smaller and thinner structures. The Doppler map of HeI λ6678 emission line shows that this line dominates the region of thin structure with higher velocities that we met on the Doppler map of HeI λ5875 emission line. On the contrary the Hα emission line dominates the region of thin structure with lower velocities. We therefore observe, that the Hα emission line dominates on the exterior of the first arm, and the emission line of HeI on the interior. Most of NaI is probably emanated from the white dwarf or from the interior of the disc, and then being absorbed by the spiral shocks.     

The vertical dimensions of Late Devensian glaciation on the mountains of Harris and southeast Lewis,Outer Hebrides,Scotland

On North Harris and southeast Lewis a weathering limit separates glacially-moulded bedrock on low ground from frost-shattered bedrock and blockfields on high plateaux. Analysis of the depths of horizontal stress-release joints demonstrates significant contrasts in bedrock weathering above and below this boundary, and the survival of gibbsite only in soils above the weathering limit indicates that it represents the upper limit of Late Devensian glacial erosion. The weathering limit declines regularly in altitude on either side of the former ice shed, and is therefore interpreted as a periglacial trimline defining the upper limit of a locally-nourished ice mass at its maximum extent, rather than a former thermal boundary between protective cold-based and erosive warm-based ice. Calculated basal shear stress values are consistent with this interpretation. The configuration of the trimline indicates that at the last glacial maximum the area supported an ice cap that achieved a maximum altitude of ca. 700 m above present sea level and declined in altitude to the west-northwest and east-southeast at an average gradient of ca. 20 m km^?1. Extrapolation of the dimensions of this ice cap suggests that it terminated ca. 7–10 km west of the present coast of Harris, and was confluent with mainland ice a short distance east of the present coastline.     

The effects of adsorptive materials on microbial community composition and PAH degradation at the sediment capewater interface

Capping with layers of inert or adsorptive materials is used to control the release of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons(PAH)in sediment but little is known about microbial degradation processes in these materials.A rich native microbial community inhabits the sediment bed,and capping media can influence enrichment and biodegradation activity of benthic microorganisms.The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of capping media(sand,organoclay,and powdered activated carbon[PAC])on microbial communities under oxic conditions typical of the capewater interface,where naphthalene degradation(model PAH)is likely to be maximized.Bench scale experiments compared naphthalene concentrations,nahAc biomarker abundance,microbial community composition,and cellular attachment in systems amended with adsorptive and non-adsorptive capping materials.Results indicate that activated carbon promoted and enhanced bioactivity;PAC treatments showed high biodegradation rates,nahAc biomarker levels,and attached biological growth consistent with enrichment of the PAHdegrading genus Pseudomonae.In contrast,sand did not enhance biological activity compared to media-free systems.Naphthalene strongly influenced microbial community composition at the species level in all treatments except organoclay,which promoted biological signatures commonly associated with impeding degradation activity.Data overall suggest that adsorptive capping materials can both promote(PAC)and inhibit(organoclay)bioactivity in the surficial layer of caps,indicating that media selection is critical to the design of bioactive capping systems.     

Sub-image data processing in Astro-WISE

Most often, astronomers are interested in a source (e.g., moving, variable, or extreme in some colour index) that lies on a few pixels of an image. However, the classical approach in astronomical data processing is the processing of the entire image or set of images even when the sole source of interest may exist on only a few pixels of one or a few images. This is because pipelines have been written and designed for instruments with fixed detector properties (e.g., image size, calibration frames, overscan regions, etc.). Furthermore, all metadata and processing parameters are based on an instrument or a detector. Accordingly, out of many thousands of images for a survey, this can lead to unnecessary processing of data that is both time-consuming and wasteful. We describe the architecture and an implementation of sub-image processing in Astro-WISE. The architecture enables a user to select, retrieve and process only the relevant pixels in an image where the source exists. We show that lineage data collected during the processing and analysis of datasets can be reused to perform selective reprocessing (at sub-image level) on datasets while the remainder of the dataset is untouched, a difficult process to automate without lineage.     

Selenodetic control network

Identification details of the 66 first-order selenodetic control points - i.e., points consisting of craters having diameters larger than 8 km - are given. The distribution of all 211 reference points of the network on the Blagg-Müller maps is also presented. In the Appendix the corresponding Blagg-Müller and LPL Catalogue number for each crater as well as the frame numbers of Lunar Orbiter IV photographs in which the craters have been studied are included.On leave from the Astronomy Department, University of Athens, Greece.The Lunar Science Institute is operated by the Universities Space Research Association under Contract No. NSR 09-051-001 with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. This paper is Lunar Science Institute Contribution No. 237.