A blind spot in driving decisions: how neglecting costs puts us in overdrive

This article discusses how people often neglect the financial costs associated with driving. As a consequence they take trips that are contrary to their own self-interest and cause unnecessary harm to the environment through carbon emissions. Two empirical studies demonstrate that when people do explicitly consider financial costs they are inclined to drive less. The article concludes by offering several solutions to help people learn and account for their driving costs.     

Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models

Regional climate change projections for the last half of the twenty-first century have been produced for South America, as part of the CREAS (Cenarios REgionalizados de Clima Futuro da America do Sul) regional project. Three regional climate models RCMs (Eta CCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P) were nested within the HadAM3P global model. The simulations cover a 30-year period representing present climate (1961–1990) and projections for the IPCC A2 high emission scenario for 2071–2100. The focus was on the changes in the mean circulation and surface variables, in particular, surface air temperature and precipitation. There is a consistent pattern of changes in circulation, rainfall and temperatures as depicted by the three models. The HadRM3P shows intensification and a more southward position of the subtropical Pacific high, while a pattern of intensification/weakening during summer/winter is projected by the Eta CCS/RegCM3. There is a tendency for a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet from the Eta CCS and HadRM3P, consistent with other studies. There are indications that regions such of Northeast Brazil and central-eastern and southern Amazonia may experience rainfall deficiency in the future, while the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador and northern Argentina may experience rainfall excesses in a warmer future, and these changes may vary with the seasons. The three models show warming in the A2 scenario stronger in the tropical region, especially in the 5°N–15°S band, both in summer and especially in winter, reaching up to 6–8°C warmer than in the present. In southern South America, the warming in summer varies between 2 and 4°C and in winter between 3 and 5°C in the same region from the 3 models. These changes are consistent with changes in low level circulation from the models, and they are comparable with changes in rainfall and temperature extremes reported elsewhere. In summary, some aspects of projected future climate change are quite robust across this set of model runs for some regions, as the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador, northern Argentina, Eastern Amazonia and Northeast Brazil, whereas for other regions they are less robust as in Pantanal region of West Central and southeastern Brazil.     

A three-tiered approach to participatory vulnerability assessment in the Solomon Islands

Greater recognition of the seriousness of global environmental change has led to an increase in research that assesses the vulnerability of households, communities and regions to changing environmental or economic conditions. So far, however, there has been relatively little attention given to how assessments can be conducted in ways that help build capacity for local communities to understand and find their own solutions to their problems. This paper reports on an approach that was designed and used to work with a local grass roots organization in the Solomon Islands to promote inclusivity and participation in decision-making and to build the capacity of the organization to reduce the vulnerability of communities to drivers of change. The process involved working collaboratively with the organization and training its members to conduct vulnerability assessments with communities using participatory and deliberative methods. To make best use of the learning opportunities provided by the research process, specific periods for formal reflection were incorporated for the three key stakeholders involved: the primary researchers; research assistants; and community members. Overall, the approach: (1) promoted learning about the current situation in Kahua and encouraged deeper analysis of problems; (2) built capacity for communities to manage the challenges they were facing; and (3) fostered local ownership and responsibility for problems and set precedents for future participation in decision-making. While the local organization and the communities it serves still face significant challenges, the research approach set the scene for greater local participation and effort to maintain and enhance livelihoods and wellbeing. The outcomes highlight the need for greater emphasis on embedding participatory approaches in vulnerability assessments for communities to benefit fully from the process.     

Uncertainty and learning: implications for the trade-off between short-lived and long-lived greenhouse gases

The economic benefits of a multi-gas approach to climate change mitigation are clear. However, there is still a debate on how to make the trade-off between different greenhouse gases (GHGs). The trade-off debate has mainly centered on the use of Global Warming Potentials (GWPs), governing the trade-off under the Kyoto Protocol, with results showing that the cost-effective valuation of short-lived GHGs, like methane (CH₄), should be lower than its current GWP value if the ultimate aim is to stabilize the anthropogenic temperature change. However, contrary to this, there have also been proposals that early mitigation mainly should be targeted on short-lived GHGs. In this paper we analyze the cost-effective trade-off between a short-lived GHG, CH₄, and a long-lived GHG, carbon dioxide (CO₂), when a temperature target is to be met, taking into consideration the current uncertainty of the climate sensitivity as well as the likelihood that this will be reduced in the future. The analysis is carried out using an integrated climate and economic model (MiMiC) and the results from this model are explored and explained using a simplified analytical economic model. The main finding is that the introduction of uncertainty and learning about the climate sensitivity increases the near-term cost-effective valuation of CH₄ relative to CO₂. The larger the uncertainty span, the higher the valuation of the short-lived gas. For an uncertainty span of ±1°C around an expected climate sensitivity of 3°C, CH₄ is cost-effectively valued 6.8 times as high as CO₂ in year 2005. This is almost twice as high as the valuation in a deterministic case, but still significantly lower than its GWP₁₀₀ value.     

Unique isoprene oxidation products demonstrate chlorine atom chemistry occurs in the Houston,Texas urban area

As part of the 2000 Texas Air Quality Study (TexAQS), we studied the isoprene oxidation process under ambient conditions to discern the presence of chlorine atom (Cl) chemistry in the Houston, Texas urban area. By measuring chloromethylbutenone (CMBO) and an isomer of chloromethylbutenal (CMBA), we clearly observed sixteen episodes of active Cl chemistry during the 24-day experiment. Estimated median Cl concentration during each of these episodes was between the detection limit of ~10² atoms cm⁻³ and 50 _{- 30} ^{+ 70} ×10⁴ 50_{ - 30}^{ + 70} \times {10^4} atoms cm⁻³. Cl concentration during all the episodes averaged 7.6 _{- 2.0} ^{+ 4.7} ×10⁴ 7.6_{ - 2.0}^{ + 4.7} \times {10^4} atoms cm⁻³ and thus amounted to less than 3% of the OH concentration during the same periods. During the episodes, the fraction of oxidation chemistry initiated by Cl ranged from 3–43% and was strongly dependent on the quantity and type of hydrocarbons present in the atmosphere. Because of its intermittent presence and low concentration, Cl is not a broadly influential oxidant in the Houston, Texas urban area.     

The Influences of NAO and the Hudson Bay sea-ice on the climate of eastern Canada

Sea-ice cover over the Hudson Bay (HB) exhibits large variability in the freeze-up season normally starting in November. Its influence on the climate over eastern Canada has been studied with the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) in three steps. First, a 30-year continuous simulation from 1970 to 1999 was performed as a control run to evaluate the simulated climate variability over eastern Canada, in particularly variability associated with the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). Then, 50 additional 1 month experiments were performed with modified sea-surface conditions prescribed over the HB. These integrations allowed us to quantify the contribution of HB sea-ice anomalies versus large scale NAO atmospheric variability (as defined by prescribed lateral boundary conditions) in inducing climate variability over eastern Canada. Results show that the NAO is the dominant factor controlling climate variability over eastern Canada. The contribution of HB sea-ice anomalies is significant only in the immediate coastal region. Under the influence of different phases of NAO, HB sea-ice anomalies do co-vary with temperature and precipitation anomalies downstream of the HB over eastern Canada. The ultimate cause of this co-variability is NAO variability which forces variability in both HB sea-ice cover as well as temperature/precipitation over eastern Canada.     

Investigation of regional climate models’ internal variability with a ten-member ensemble of 10-year simulations over a large domain

Previous investigations on regional climate models’ (RCM) internal variability (IV) were limited owing to small ensembles, short simulations and small domains. The present work extends previous studies with a ten-member ensemble of 10-year simulations performed with the Canadian Regional Climate Model over a large domain covering North America. The results show that the IV has no long-term tendency but rather fluctuates in time following the synoptic situation within the domain. The IV of mean-sea-level pressure (MSLP) and screen temperature (ST) show a small annual cycle with larger values in spring, which differs from previous studies. For precipitation (PCP), the IV shows a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer, as previously reported. The 10-year climatology of the IV for MSLP and ST shows a well-defined spatial distribution with larger values in the northeast of the domain, near the outflow boundary. A comparison of the IV of MSLP and ST in summer with the transient-eddy variance reveals that the IV is close to its maximum in a small region near the outflow boundary. Same analysis for PCP in summer shows that the IV reaches its maximum in most parts of the domain, except for a small region on the western side near the inflow boundary. Finally, a comparison of the 10-year climate of each simulation of the ensemble showed that the IV may have a significant impact on the climatology of some variables.     

HIDDRA: a highly independent data distribution and retrieval architecture for space observation missions

Institutions such as NASA, ESA or JAXA find solutions to distribute data from their missions to the scientific community, and their long term archives. This is a complex problem, as it includes a vast amount of data, several geographically distributed archives, heterogeneous architectures with heterogeneous networks, and users spread around the world. We propose a novel architecture that solves this problem aiming to fulfill the requirements of the final user. Our architecture is a modular system that provides a highly efficient parallel multiprotocol download engine, using a publisher/subscriber policy which helps the final user to obtain data of interest transparently. We have evaluated a first prototype, in collaboration with the ESAC centre in Villafranca del Castillo (Spain) that shows a high scalability and performance, opening a wide spectrum of opportunities.