Effects of a melted greenland ice sheet on climate, vegetation, and the cryosphere

This paper investigates the possible implications for the earth-system of a melting of the Greenland ice-sheet. Such a melting is a possible result of increased high latitude temperatures due to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Using an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM), we investigate the effects of the removal of the ice sheet on atmospheric temperatures, circulation, and precipitation. We find that locally over Greenland, there is a warming associated directly with the altitude change in winter, and the altitude and albedo change in summer. Outside of Greenland, the largest signal is a cooling over the Barents sea in winter. We attribute this cooling to a decrease in poleward heat transport in the region due to changes to the time mean circulation and eddies, and interaction with sea-ice. The simulated climate is used to force a vegetation model and an ice-sheet model. We find that the Greenland climate in the absence of an ice sheet supports the growth of trees in southern Greenland, and grass in central Greenland. We find that the ice sheet is likely to regrow following a melting of the Greenland ice sheet, the subsequent rebound of its bedrock, and a return to present day atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. This regrowth is due to the high altitude bedrock in eastern Greenland which allows the growth of glaciers which develop into an ice sheet.     

Metasomatism and melting history of a Variscan lithospheric mantle domain: evidence from the Puy Beaunit xenoliths (French Massif Central)

Mantle xenoliths from Puy Beaunit (French Massif Central) are compositionally varied, ranging from relatively fertile spinel lherzolites to refractory spinel dunites. Fertile peridotites have registered a modal (amphibole-bearing lherzolites) and cryptic metasomatic event that took place before the last Permian (257 Ma) melting episode. Depletion processes have been constrained by chemical modelling: the depletion is related to different degrees of partial melting, but two major melt extraction episodes are needed to explain the range of major element composition. The second event was responsible for the local large-scale dunitification of former residues. The first melting event (F25%) and metasomatic enrichment are attributed to an ancient fluid and/or liquid infiltration that could be related to a pre-Variscan regional subduction (located to the north of the Beaunit area). Texture acquisition and major deformation of the mantle xenoliths were sub-contemporaneous of the subduction and would result from lithospheric delamination. The second melting event (F17%) produced high-Mg basalts with calc-alkaline trace element signature that gave rise to the Permian underplating episode recognised in western Europe.     

P–V Equations of State and the relative stabilities of serpentine varieties

Serpentines are hydrous phyllosilicates which form by hydration of Mg–Fe minerals. The reasons for the occurrence of the structural varieties lizardite and chrysotile, with respect to the variety antigorite, stable at high pressure, are not yet fully elucidated, and their relative stability fields are not quantitatively defined. In order to increase the database of thermodynamic properties of serpentines, the P–V Equations of State (EoS) of lizardite and chrysotile were determined at ambient temperature up to 10 GPa, by in situ synchrotron X-ray diffraction in a diamond-anvil cell. Neither amorphization nor hysteresis was observed during compression and decompression, and no phase transition was resolved in lizardite. In chrysotile, a reversible change in compression mechanism, possibly due to an unresolved phase transition, occurs above 5 GPa. Both varieties exhibit strong anisotropic compression, with the c axis three times more compressible than the others. Fits to ambient temperature Birch–Murnaghan EoS gave for lizardite V ₀=180.92(3) Å³, K ₀ = 71.0(19) GPa and K′ ₀=3.2(6), and for chrysotile up to 5 GPa, V ₀ = 730.57(31) Å³ and K ₀ = 62.8(24) GPa (K′ ₀ fixed to 4). Compared to the structural variety antigorite is stable at high pressure (HP) (Hilairet et al. 2006), the c axis is more compressible in these varieties, whereas the a and b axes are less compressible. These differences are attributed to the less anisotropic distribution of stiff covalent bonds in the corrugated structure of antigorite. The three varieties have almost identical bulk compressibility curves. Thus the compressibility has negligible influence on the relative stability fields of the serpentine varieties. They are dominated by first-order thermodynamic properties, which stabilizes antigorite at high temperature with respect to lizardite, and by out-of-equilibrium phenomena for metastable chrysotile (Evans 2004).     

A multi-proxy record of the Last Glacial Maximum and last 14,500?years of paleoenvironmental change at Lone Spruce Pond, southwestern Alaska

Sediment cores from Lone Spruce Pond (60.007°N, 159.143°W), southwestern Alaska, record paleoenvironmental changes during the global Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and during the last 14,500 calendar years BP (14.5?cal?ka). We analyzed the abundance of organic matter, biogenic silica, carbon, and nitrogen, and the isotope ratios of C and N, magnetic susceptibility, and grain-size distribution of bulk sediment, abundance of alder shrub (Alnus) pollen, and midge (Chironomidae and Chaoboridae) assemblages in a 4.7-m-long sediment sequence from the depocenter at 22?m water depth. The basal unit contains macrofossils dating to 25?C21?cal?ka (the global LGM), and is interpreted as glacial-lacustrine sediment. The open water requires that the outlet of the Ahklun Mountain ice cap had retreated to within 6?km of the range crest. In addition to cladocerans and diatoms, the glacial-lacustrine mud contains chironomids consistent with deep, oligotrophic conditions; several taxa associated with relatively warm conditions are present, suggestive of relative warmth during the global LGM. The glacial-lacustrine unit is separated from the overlying non-glacial lake sediment by a possible disconformity, which might record a readvance of glacier ice. Non-glacial sediment began accumulating around 14.5?cal?ka, with high flux of mineral matter and fluctuating physical and biological properties through the global deglacial period, including a reversal in biogenic-silica (BSi) content during the Younger Dryas (YD). During the global deglacial interval, the ??¹³C values of lake sediment were higher relative to other periods, consistent with low C:N ratios (8), and suggesting a dominant atmospheric CO₂ source of C for phytoplankton. Concentrations of aquatic faunal remains (chironomids and Cladocera) were low throughout the deglacial interval, diversity was low and warm-indicator taxa were absent. Higher production and air temperatures are inferred following the YD, when bulk organic-matter (OM) content (LOI 550?°C) increased substantially and permanently, from 10 to 30?%, a trend paralleled by an increase in C and N abundance, an increase in C:N ratio (to about 12), and a decrease in ??¹³C of sediment. Post-YD warming is marked by a rapid shift in the midge assemblage. Between 8.9 and 8.5?cal?ka, Alnus pollen tripled (25?C75?%), followed by the near-tripling of BSi (7?C19?%) by 8.2?cal?ka, and ??¹⁵N began a steady rise, reflecting the buildup of N and an increase in denitrification in soils. Several chironomid taxa indicative of relatively warm conditions were present throughout the Holocene. Quantitative chironomid-based temperature inferences are complicated by the expansion of Alnus and resulting changes in lake nutrient status and production; these changes were associated with an abrupt increase in cladoceran abundance and persistent shift in the chironomid assemblage. During the last 2,000?years, chironomid-assemblage changes suggest cooler temperatures, and BSi and OM values were generally lower than their maximum Holocene values, with minima during the seventh and eighth centuries, and again during the eighteenth century.     

A late glacial Antarctic climate teleconnection and variable Holocene seasonality at Lake Pupuke, Auckland, New Zealand

We present the first continuous paleolimnological reconstruction from the North Island of New Zealand (37°S) that spans the last 48.2?cal kyr. A tephra- and radiocarbon-based chronology was developed to infer the timing of marked paleolimnological changes in Lake Pupuke, Auckland, New Zealand, identified using sedimentology, magnetic susceptibility, grain size and geochemistry (carbon, nitrogen and sulphur concentrations and fluxes, carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes). Variable erosional influx, biomass and benthic REDOX conditions are linked to changing effective precipitation and seasonality within three inferred broad intervals of climatic change: (1) the Last Glacial Coldest Phase (LGCP) of reduced effective precipitation and cooler temperatures, from 28.8 to 18.0?cal kyr BP, (2) the Last Glacial Interglacial Transition (LGIT) of increasing effective precipitation and warmer conditions, from 18.0 to 10.2?cal?kyr?BP, and (3) a Holocene interval of high effective precipitation, beginning with a warm period of limited seasonality from 10.2?cal?kyr?BP and followed by increasing seasonality from 7.6?cal?kyr?BP. The LGCP and LGIT also contain millennial-scale climate events, including the coldest inferred glacial conditions during the LGCP from 27.8 to 26.0 and 22.0?C19.0?cal?kyr?BP, and a climate reversal in the LGIT associated with lower lake level, from 14.5 to 13.8?cal?kyr?BP, coeval with the Antarctic Cold Reversal. The onset of seasonal thermal stratification occurred at 5.7?cal?kyr?BP and was linked to natural eutrophication of Lake Pupuke, which produced enhanced organic sedimentation.     

The influence of negative emission technologies and technology policies on the optimal climate mitigation portfolio

Combining policies to remove carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere with policies to reduce emissions could decrease CO₂ concentrations faster than possible via natural processes. We model the optimal selection of a dynamic portfolio of abatement, research and development (R&D), and negative emission policies under an exogenous CO₂ constraint and with stochastic technological change. We find that near-term abatement is not sensitive to the availability of R&D policies, but the anticipated availability of negative emission strategies can reduce the near-term abatement optimally undertaken to meet 2°C temperature limits. Further, planning to deploy negative emission technologies shifts optimal R&D funding from ??carbon-free?? technologies into ??emission intensity?? technologies. Making negative emission strategies available enables an 80% reduction in the cost of keeping year 2100 CO₂ concentrations near their current level. However, negative emission strategies are less important if the possibility of tipping points rules out using late-century net negative emissions to temporarily overshoot the CO₂ constraint earlier in the century.     

Valuing the non-CO2 climate impacts of aviation

The non-CO₂ climate impact of aviation (NO_x and contrails) is assessed and emissions weighting factors (EWFs) i.e., the factor by which aviation CO₂ emissions should be multiplied to get the CO₂-equivalent emissions for annual fleet average conditions are estimated. The EWFs are estimated using two economic metrics. One is based on the relative damage cost between non-CO₂ forcers and CO₂. The other is based on the cost-effective valuation between the non-CO₂ forcers and CO₂ given an upper ceiling on the global annual average surface temperature (set at 2?K above pre-industrial levels). We also estimate EWFs using three physical metrics, Global Warming Potential (GWP), Global Temperature change Potential (GTP) and Sustained GTP (SGTP) and compare our results with the economics based metrics. Given best estimates on the forcing contributions from CO₂, contrails and NO_x from aviation and by using a discount rate of 3%/year, the RDC based metric gives an EWF equal to 1.4 (slightly higher than EWFs based on GWP and SGTP using a 100?year time horizon). EWF using the cost-effective approach depends on the time that remains before stabilization occurs. It is roughly equal to unity until a few years before the temperature reaches its ceiling, and approximately 2 when stabilization has taken place. EWFs based on GTP resemble those based on CETO when the time left to when stabilization occurs is sufficiently large. Once stabilization has occurred CETO values resemble RDC based values. If aviation-induced cirrus clouds are included, uncertainties increase and the EWFs for GWP, SGTP and RDC based metrics end up in the range 1.3–2.9, while EWFs for GTP and CETO remain close to unity in the near term.     

The impact of resolution on the adjustment and decadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a coupled climate model

Variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) exert an important influence on climate, particularly on decadal time scales. Simulation of the MOC in coupled climate models is compromised, to a degree that is unknown, by their lack of fidelity in resolving some of the key processes involved. There is an overarching need to increase the resolution and fidelity of climate models, but also to assess how increases in resolution influence the simulation of key phenomena such as the MOC. In this study we investigate the impact of significantly increasing the (ocean and atmosphere) resolution of a coupled climate model on the simulation of MOC variability by comparing high and low resolution versions of the same model. In both versions, decadal variability of the MOC is closely linked to density anomalies that propagate from the Labrador Sea southward along the deep western boundary. We demonstrate that the MOC adjustment proceeds more rapidly in the higher resolution model due the increased speed of western boundary waves. However, the response of the Atlantic sea surface temperatures to MOC variations is relatively robust—in pattern if not in magnitude—across the two resolutions. The MOC also excites a coupled ocean-atmosphere response in the tropical Atlantic in both model versions. In the higher resolution model, but not the lower resolution model, there is evidence of a significant response in the extratropical atmosphere over the North Atlantic 6?years after a maximum in the MOC. In both models there is evidence of a weak negative feedback on deep density anomalies in the Labrador Sea, and hence on the MOC (with a time scale of approximately ten years). Our results highlight the need for further work to understand the decadal variability of the MOC and its simulation in climate models.