Short‐term flood inundation prediction using hydrologic‐hydraulic models forced with downscaled rainfall from global NWP

A short‐term flood inundation prediction model has been formulated based on the combination of the super‐tank model, forced with downscaled rainfall from a global numerical weather prediction model, and a one‐dimensional (1D) hydraulic model. Different statistical methods for downscaled rainfall have been explored, taking into account the availability of historical data. It has been found that the full implementation of a statistical downscaling model considering physically‐based corrections to the numerical weather prediction model output for rainfall prediction performs better compared with an altitudinal correction method. The integration of the super‐tank model into the 1D hydraulic model demonstrates a minimal requirement for the calibration of rainfall–runoff and flood propagation models. Updating the model with antecedent rainfall and regular forecast renewal has enhanced the model's capabilities as a result of the data assimilation processes of the runoff and numerical weather prediction models. The results show that the predicted water levels demonstrate acceptable agreement with those measured by stream gauges and comparable to those reproduced using the actual rainfall. Moreover, the predicted flood inundation depth and extent exhibit reasonably similar tendencies to those observed in the field. However, large uncertainties are observed in the prediction results in lower, flat portions of the river basin where the hydraulic conditions are not properly analysed by the 1D flood propagation model. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Variations in the environmental characteristics of groundwater slightly contaminated with petroleum: effects of enhanced bioremediation in northeast China

The objective of this paper was to investigate a petroleum-contaminated groundwater site in northeast China. Based on the monitoring and analysis of environmental characteristics of groundwater slightly contaminated with petroleum, microbes were added into the petroleum-contaminated groundwater via single-well and multiple-well models to enhance bioremediation. The effect of enhanced bioremediation was monitored and analyzed, and variations in the environmental characteristics of groundwater containing total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) were identified to provide a scientific basis for controlling and remediating petroleum-contaminated groundwater. Findings confirmed that this site was slightly contaminated and TPH levels exhibited a slight decreasing trend. After enhanced remediation, the microbial degradation effect was large, and the TPH concentration significantly reduced. In particular, near the wells treated by bioremediation, the amounts of electron acceptors, such as NO₃ ^?, Fe³⁺, and SO₄ ^2?, markedly decreased. The product of the microbial degradation process, HCO₃ ^?, gradually increased in the treated wells. Activities of the enzyme catechol 1, 2-dioxygenase decreased, while those of catalase increased. Reductions in pH, from 7.4 to 6.1, were recorded, and the groundwater environment became further deoxidized.     

干旱区绿洲城市城镇化发展状况及协调性浅析——以吐鲁番地区为例

城镇化是一个国家或地区经济发展的必经途径,同时也是衡量某地区经济发展水平的重要标志之一。城镇化进程不仅关系到区域人口、经济和环境的可持续发展,还关系到区域平衡与区域生产效率,以致关系到区域的综合竞争力。利用2001—2011年吐鲁番地区人口、经济、社会和生态方面的相关数据,剖析吐鲁番地区城镇化系统,选出并构建吐鲁番地区人口、经济、社会和生态4个城镇化系统的6个评价指标体系,对指标进行定量分析;计算城镇化4个系统以及城镇化发展水平的综合评价指数及其各系统的协调度,根据各子系统评价指数建立数学模型,分析吐鲁番地区城镇化驱动因子以及制约该地区城镇化进程的影响因素;并推算出吐鲁番地区城镇化的变化和发展趋势。     

Multi-hazard assessment using machine learning and remote sensing in the North Central region of Vietnam

Natural hazards constitute a diverse category and are unevenly distributed in time and space. This hinders predictive efforts, leading to significant impacts on human life and economies. Multi-hazard prediction is vital for any natural hazard risk management plan. The main objective of this study was the development of a multi-hazard susceptibility mapping framework, by combining two natural hazards—flooding and landslides—in the North Central region of Vietnam. This was accomplished using support vector machines, random forest, and AdaBoost. The input data consisted of 4591 flood points, 1315 landslide points, and 13 conditioning factors, split into training (70%), and testing (30%) datasets. The accuracy of the models' predictions was evaluated using the statistical indices root mean square error, area under curve (AUC), mean absolute error, and coefficient of determination. All proposed models were good at predicting multi-hazard susceptibility, with AUC values over 0.95. Among them, the AUC value for the support vector machine model was 0.98 and 0.99 for landslide and flood, respectively. For the random forest model, these values were 0.98 and 0.98, and for AdaBoost, they were 0.99 and 0.99. The multi-hazard maps were built by combining the landslide and flood susceptibility maps. The results showed that approximately 60% of the study area was affected by landslides, 30% by flood, and 8% by both hazards. These results illustrate how North Central is one of the regions of Vietnam that is most severely affected by natural hazards, particularly flooding, and landslides. The proposed models adapt to evaluate multi-hazard susceptibility at different scales, although expert intervention is also required, to optimize the algorithms. Multi-hazard maps can provide a valuable point of reference for decision makers in sustainable land-use planning and infrastructure development in regions faced with multiple hazards, and to prevent and reduce more effectively the frequency of floods and landslides and their damage to human life and property.     

Geochemistry and origin of the giant Quaternary shallow gas accumulations in the eastern Qaidam Basin, NW China

This study provided an overview of the geological setting and geochemical characteristics of the Pleistocene shallow gas accumulations in the eastern Qaidam Basin, NW China. The five largest gas accumulations discovered in this region have a combined enclosure area of about 87 km² and 7.9 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of proven gas reserves. The dominance of methane (mostly more than 99.9%) and the δ¹³C and δD values of methane (−68.51 to −65.00‰ and −227.55 to −221.94‰, respectively) suggest that these gases are biogenic, derived from the degradation of sedimentary organic matter by methanogens under relatively low temperatures (<75 °C). A sufficient supply and adequate preservation of organic matter in the Pleistocene sediments was made possible by the lake basin’s high altitude (2600–3000 m), high water salinity (>15% TDS) and strong stratification. The deposition and extensive lateral occurrence of lacustrine – shoreline sands/silts in beach sand sheets and sand bars provided excellent reservoirs for the biogenic gas generated from adjacent rocks. Effective but dynamic gas seals are provided by a combination of factors, such as the intermittent vertical variation in the sediment lithologies, hydraulic trapping due to the mudstone water saturation, the hydrocarbon gradient created as the result of gas generation from potential caprocks, and the presence of a regional caprock consisting of 400–800 m of muds and evaporites. It appears that the most favorable traps for large gas accumulations occur on structural slopes near the major gas kitchen, and the prolific gas pools are often those large gentle anticlines with little faulting complication.     

地理信息系统在中国粮食总产空间变化研究中的应用

本文针对前人研究粮食生产系统空间变化的不足,选择１９８５与１９９４两个年份的分县粮食生产统计数据为依据,运用地理信息系统（ＣＡＳ／ＧＩＳ）做为分析手段,从空间变化特征,变化成因及变化趋势３个方面,着重对１９８４年以来的我国粮食总产的空间变化进行了定量研究。结果表明：在过去十年里,我国粮食增产量主要来自北方,南方粮食产量地位明显下降;今后,南方粮食减产区将会进一步扩大,北方将成为我国粮食生产发展的重     

渤海湾盆地及周边的古生古储油气藏——以双洞背斜古油藏与刘其营、苏桥潜山油气藏为例

双洞背斜古油藏、刘其营潜山油气藏、苏桥潜山油气藏均为古生古储或自生自储的油气藏(古油藏)。双洞古油藏位于燕山褶皱带山海关隆起北部,邻近渤海湾盆地,其含油层为中—上元古界铁岭组,而该处根本没有下第三系生油层,说明中—上元古界和古生界是其生烃层。刘其营油气藏位于冀中坳陷,储层为奥陶系,盖层为石炭系—二叠系,其上部新生界主要生油层为沙河街组三段,中间相隔厚度约1000～3000m的沙河街组四段和孔店组隔层。沙河街组三段所生之油气,无法穿过这一隔层及不整合面向下运移到奥陶系储层中,因此刘其营潜山油气藏也不可能是新生古储的。苏桥油气藏是一复式油气藏,上部石炭系—二叠系气藏与下部奥陶系油藏叠合,根据油、气、水性质的对比也可以排除新生古储的成藏模式。渤海湾盆地古生界和中—上元古界具有生烃能力,其中的临清坳陷具备在深部古老地层寻找原生油气藏的条件。     

CSAMT测量中磁场对测量结果的影响

CSAMT的标量测量中常采用共磁道测量方式,即同步观测测量剖面上多个电道信号和垂直测量剖面的一个磁道信号,由此计算各测点的Cagniard视电阻率。因磁场测量位置的不同,势必对测量结果产生影响。计算了均匀半空间条件下不同测量位置的磁场强度,以及对视电阻率的影响;模拟了存在局部三维异常体时,赤道装置下不同位置的磁场对视电阻率的影响。结合野外实测资料分析认为,由磁场测量位置偏差引起的视电阻率误差难以校正,在实际工作中应尽量采用单电单磁的测量方式;当在大收发距且浅层电性结构单一的条件下,可以采用三电一磁的测量方式。研究对CSAMT标量测量方式的改进及实际勘查工作具有一定的指导意义。     

一次飑线过程的雷达回波分析与数值模拟

2003年4月12日, 一条飑线袭击了江西、福建、浙江三省, 所到之处出现冰雹、大风等强烈天气, 这次过程强度强, 影响范围大, 三省交界及附近区域有二十多个测站出现冰雹、大风, 冰雹直径有的达3 cm以上, 最大风速达32 m/s。该文利用建阳新一代天气雷达探测到的回波以及中尺度非静力数值模式 (MM5) 对这次过程进行数值模拟, 分析此次强对流过程。结果表明:雷达回波显示出飑线的带状强回波, 线状回波上呈现波型特征; 在数值模拟结果中看到在系统发生的带状区域内有多个中尺度涡旋存在, 在飑线内有中尺度涡旋簇和弓形回波。     

Inspirations from the scientific discovery of the anammox bacteria: A classic example of how scientific principles can guide discovery and development

Anaerobic ammonium oxidation(anammox) is a relatively new pathway within the N cycle discovered in the late 1990 s. This eminent discovery not only modified the classical theory of biological metabolism and matter cycling, but also profoundly influenced our understanding of the energy sources for life. A new member of chemolithoautotrophic microorganisms capable of carbon fixation was found in the vast deep dark ocean. If the discovery of the chemosynthetic ecosystems in the deep-sea hydrothermal vent environments once challenged the old dogma "all living things depend on the sun for growth," the discovery of anammox bacteria that are widespread in anoxic environments fortifies the victory over this dogma. Anammox bacteria catalyze the oxidization of NH_4~+ by using NO_2~- as the terminal electron acceptor to produce N_2. Similar to the denitrifying microorganisms, anammox bacteria play a biogeochemical role of inorganic N removal from the environment. However, unlike heterotrophic denitrifying bacteria, anammox bacteria are chemolithoautotrophs that can generate transmembrane proton motive force, synthesize ATP molecules and further carry out CO_2 fixation through metabolic energy harvested from the anammox process. Although anammox bacteria and the subsequently found ammonia-oxidizing archaea(AOA), another very important group of N cycling microorganisms are both chemolithoautotrophs, AOA use ammonia rather than ammonium as the electron donor and O_2 as the terminal electron acceptor in their energy metabolism. Therefore, the ecological process of AOA mainly takes place in oxic seawater and sediments, while anammox bacteria are widely distributed in anoxic water and sediments, and even in some typical extreme marine environments such as the deep-sea hydrothermal vents and methane seeps. Studies have shown that the anammox process may be responsible for 30%–70% N_2 production in the ocean. In environmental engineering related to nitrogenous wastewater treatment, anammox provides a new technology with low energy consumption, low cost, and high efficiency that can achieve energy saving and emission reduction. However, the discovery of anammox bacteria is actually a hard-won achievement. Early in the 1960 s, the possibility of the anammox biogeochemical process was predicted to exist according to some marine geochemical data. Then in the 1970 s, the existence of anammox bacteria was further predicted via chemical reaction thermodynamic calculations. However, these microorganisms were not found in subsequent decades. What hindered the discovery of anammox bacteria, an important N cycling microbial group widespread in hypoxic and anoxic environments? What are the factors that finally led to their discovery? What are the inspirations that the analyses of these questions can bring to scientific research? This review article will analyze and elucidate the above questions by presenting the fundamental physiological and ecological characteristics of the marine anammox bacteria and the principles of scientific research.