Fast and Accurate Approximation to Kriging Using Common Data Neighborhoods

Unknown values of a random field can be predicted from observed data using kriging. As data sets grow in size, the computation times become large. To facilitate kriging with large data sets, an approximation where the kriging is performed in sub-segments with common data neighborhoods has been developed. It is shown how the accuracy of the approximation can be controlled by increasing the common data neighborhood. For four different variograms, it is shown how large the data neighborhoods must be to get an accuracy below a chosen threshold, and how much faster these calculations are compared to the kriging where all data are used. Provided that variogram ranges are small compared to the domain of interest, kriging with common data neighborhoods provides excellent speed-ups (2–40) while maintaining high numerical accuracy. Results are presented both for data neighborhoods where the neighborhoods are the same for all sub-segments, and data neighborhoods where the neighborhoods are adapted to fit the data densities around the sub-segments. Kriging in sub-segments with common data neighborhoods is well suited for parallelization and the speed-up is almost linear in the number of threads. A comparison is made to the widely used moving neighborhood approach. It is demonstrated that the accuracy of the moving neighborhood approach can be poor and that computational speed can be slow compared to kriging with common data neighborhoods.     

The effect of radioactive waste storage in Andreev Bay on contamination of the Barents Sea ecosystem

Doklady Earth Sciences - The effect of temporary radioactive waste storage on the ecological status of the sea and biota in the littoral of Andreev and Malaya Andreev bays and near the shore of...     

Seismic hazard assessment for Guatemala City

Guatemala is one of the Central American countries that for some years now have been participating in a regional program for natural hazard assessment and disaster reduction, funded by the Nordic countries and coordinated by a regional institution (CEPREDENAC). Recent work related to seismic hazard has included the standardization, reporting and processing of seismicity data across the borders, followed by regional hazard modeling. The work presented here for Guatemala City represents a step from a regional to a more local level, based on reevaluation of historical seismicity, geological data related to active faults, and attenuation relations recently derived from analysis of strong motion records from the region. The site specific hazard calculations indicate that expected values of peak ground acceleration are ranging from less than 2 to more than 6 m s^–2, corresponding to annual exceedence probabilities ranging from 0.1 to 0.001, respectively.

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Long-period ground-motions for large European earthquakes, 1905–1992, and comparisons with stochastic predictions

Data from European earthquakes in themagnitude range 5 to 8 between 1905 and1992 have been collected and collated, fordistances between 200 and 3400 km. The datainclude both analog and digital records,with priority on wave paths traversingnorthern Europe. Historical analog recordsfrom Uppsala and De Bilt have beendigitised, and appropriate responsefunctions established. New estimates ofseismic moments and moment magnitudes havebeen obtained, which together with momentmagnitudes from other sources have beencompared to surface wave magnitudes. Thelocation of the largest north Europeanearthquakes substantiate earliersuggestions that rifted regions (passivemargins, rifts and grabens) may have thelargest seismic potentials. Arandom-vibration (stochastic) model forprediction of observed peak amplitude,period and Fourier acceleration spectra hasbeen developed and calibrated againstintermediate and long-period observations.Reasonably good correspondence betweenpredictions and observations are obtainedwhen using a simple Brune source spectrum,new values for seismic moments andmoment-magnitude relations, together withreasonable assumptions for stress drop,geometrical spreading and anelasticattenuation. The model is useful first ofall for predicting broad regional averages,but as such it is robust, and it also hasthe potential to be used in an engineeringcontext for predicting spectral responseand peak ground accelerations. Some of theempirical data have also been studied interms of pseudo-relative spectral velocityand compared to strong-motion responsespectral prediction models established fornorthwestern Europe, again for lowfrequencies. Irrespective of these prediction models we emphasize, however, thatthe establishment of the data base itselfhas been an independent and importantpurpose of this study.     

Geological modeling and simulation of CO2 injection in the Johansen formation

The Johansen formation is a candidate site for large-scale CO₂ storage offshore of the south-western coast of Norway. An overview of the geology for the Johansen formation and neighboring geological formations is given, together with a discussion of issues for geological and geophysical modelling and integrated fluid flow modelling. We further describe corresponding simulation models. Major issues to consider are capacity estimation and processes that could potentially cause CO₂ to leak out of the Johansen formation and into the formations above. Currently, these issues can only be investigated through numerical simulation. We consider the effect of different boundary conditions, sensitivity with respect to vertical grid refinement and permeability/transmisibility data, and the effect of residual gas saturations, since these strongly affect the CO₂-plume distribution. The geological study of the Johansen formation is performed based on available seismic and well data. Fluid simulations are performed using a commercial simulator capable of modelling CO₂ flow and transport by simple manipulation of input files and data. We provide details for the data and the model, with a particular focus on geology and geometry for the Johansen formation. The data set is made available for download online.     

Arsenic and other Trace Metals in Sediments from the Kara Sea and the Ob and Yenisey Estuaries, Russia

Major (Al and Fe), minor (Mn) andtrace (As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Li, Mo, Ni, Pb, Sb, Vand Zn) metals along with material of grain size<63 m, TOC and TN have been determined insediment grab and core samples from the Kara Sea, andthe Ob and Yenisey estuaries, Russia. Surprisingly,the levels of trace metals, with the exception of As,were much lower than was anticipated from speculativereports of extensive contamination in the Arcticmarine areas adjacent to the Siberian coastline ofRussia. Lithium normalization indicates that theabundance and distribution of the metals, with theexception of As and Mo, are controlled by theaccumulation of their fine grained aluminosilicatehost minerals at sites determined by hydrodynamicconditions in the Kara Sea and in the estuaries. Metallevels in the Kara Sea and the Ob and Yeniseyestuaries, except for some anomalous As, Cu and Nivalues, are close to natural baseline levels of otherEurasian Arctic shelf sediments. High levels of As,however, occur in surface and subsurface sediments.The accumulation of As, as well as Mo, can beattributed to the post-depositional diagenetic effectsof Fe-Mn cycling both at and near the sediment waterinterface. Subsurface As and Fe maxima and minimasuggest alternating oxic and anoxic water conditionsduring post-glacial rises in sea level. In contrast tothe results from the adjacent Pechora Sea, in the KaraSea there is no correlation between the levels of Asand radionuclides in the sediments.     

Sedimentation and mixing rates of radionuclides in Barents Sea sediments off Novaya Zemlya

Radionuclide measurements have been conducted on sediment cores collected in 1992 in the south-eastern region of the Barents Sea, known as the Pechora Sea. Cesium-137 and ^239,24OPu activities in surface sediments are generally less than 30 Bq/kg, with the highest levels being measured in sediments off the southwestern coastline of the island of Novaya Zemlya. High correlations between both ¹³⁷Cs and ^239,24OPu and the concentration of fine (< 63 μm) particles in surface sediments indicate that much of the variance in radionuclide concentrations throughout the Pechora Sea can be explained by particle size fractionation. However, elevated activities of ¹³⁷Cs (138 Bq/kg), ⁶⁰Co (92 Bq/kg), ²⁴¹Am (433 Bq/kg), and especially ^239,24OPu (8.47 × 103 Bq/kg) were measured in one surface sediment sample from the fjord of Chernaya Bay on the southern coast of Novaya Zemlya. The source of radioactive contamination is two underwater nuclear tests conducted in Chernaya Bay in 1955 and 1957.The ²³⁸Pu/^239,240Vu activity ratio of 0.0245 in Chernaya Bay is equivalent to values measured in global fallout. The ²⁴⁰Pu/²³⁹Pu atom ratio (0.0304), measured by mass spectrometry, is much lower than values (0.18) typical of global fallout, but is consistent with ratios measured for fallout from the early (1951–1955) series of weapons tests at the Nevada Test Site. The timing of the Chernaya Bay source term, estimated from the ²⁴¹Am/²⁴¹Pu ratio, is consistent with the timing of the 1955 and 1957 underwater nuclear tests. Relatively low initial yields of ²⁴¹Pu (²⁴¹Pu/²³⁹Pu atom RATIO = 0.00 123) in these tests have resulted in relatively low ²⁴¹Am/^239,240Pu activity ratios (0.05) in recent sediments in Chernaya Bay.Radionuclide tracer profiles in cores from the Pechora Sea can be simulated using a two-layer biodiffusion model with rapid, near-homogeneous mixing in the surface mixed layer and reduced mixing in the deep layer. Lead-210 profiles are consistent with a wide range of sedimentation and mixing rates in the deep sediment layer. However, the ¹³7Cs and ^239,240Pu results further constrain the model parameters and indicate that the downward transport of radionuclides in the sediments is governed primarily by sediment mixing, with sediment burial playing a secondary role.