地温示踪地表暖化过程中的气候变化和城市热岛效应

对日本熊本平原城区和郊区28口观测井温度进行测量,利用一维非稳定水－热流运移方程解析解反演地表温度变化率,同时与研究区域7个气象站气温数据进行对比验证。结果表明：1987－2012年研究区域城区地表温度增加1.51°C,近地表气温增加1.13°C;郊区地表温度增加0.81°C,近地表气温增加0.59°C。研究区域气候变化和城市热岛效应对地表暖化过程的贡献率基本一致,通过对城区和郊区地温进行测量分析,能有效量化区分两者对地表暖化过程的影响。     

中国海南：从经济特区到综合复合型自由贸易港的嬗变

海南自由贸易试验区与自由贸易港规划建设不仅是海南发展的需要,也是中国深化改革,扩大开放,实现经济转型以及应对国际竞争与挑战的重要措施与战略部署。相关研究就海南自由贸易试验区建设的必要性、可行性、模式与实施对策进行了初步分析。为构建自由贸易区的学术研究体系,完善海南自由贸易港规划建设的理论与实践,集中几位长期从事相关研究的地理、经济与规划学者,就海南自由贸易港的类型与功能、产业发展、空间结构、政策与监管以及风险防控等方面进行探讨,以期引起决策者与学术界的深入研究与探讨。     

基于地理探测器的区域土壤耕层有机碳含量 多元复合模型构建——以珠三角核心区为例

区域土壤耕层有机碳含量的精确测算,对于研究全球碳循环至关重要,但其影响因素多,空间变异性强,现有插值测算方法精度偏低。从提高测算精度出发,基于地理探测器技术,改进传统的协同克里格插值方法,构建多元复合模型进行区域土壤耕层有机碳含量的测算,并以珠三角核心区为例进行实际验证。结果表明：1）珠三角核心区土壤耕层有机碳含量空间变异与地形、水文、土壤和农田利用方式等有关,不同因素的贡献力存在较大差异,各因素贡献力（q统计量）在0.076~0.201之间,其中土壤理化性状与农田利用方式的贡献力大于地形、水文,区别不同因素的贡献力进行土壤耕层有机碳含量的精确测算应是客观要求。2）依照地理探测器分析结果,基于不同因素贡献力构建土壤耕层有机碳含量多元复合模型,插值测算精度明显提升,在珠三角核心区普通克里格、地理加权回归克里格和BP神经网络克里格的土壤耕层有机碳含量插值结果精度较多元复合模型下降16.62%、23.86%和37.33% 。由结果发现,多元复合模型突破了现有算法中辅助因素数量的局限,有效抑制了区域SOCC测算过程中的影响因素耦合噪声,降低了测算结果的不确定性。     

Village-level multidimensional poverty measurement in China: Where and how

Village is an important implementation unit of national poverty alleviation and development strategies of rural China, and identifying the poverty degree, poverty type and poverty contributing factors of each poverty-stricken village is the precondition and guarantee of taking targeted measures in poverty alleviation strategies of China. To respond it, we construct a village-level multidimensional poverty measuring model, and use indicator contribution degree indices and linear regression method to explore poverty factors, while adopting Least Square Error (LSE) model and spatial econometric analysis model to identify the villages’ poverty types and poverty difference. The case study shows that: (1) Spatially, there is obvious territoriality in the distribution of poverty-stricken villages, and the poverty-stricken villages are concentrated in contiguous poverty-stricken areas. The areas with the highest VPI, in a descending order, are Gansu, Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi, Hunan, Qinghai, Sichuan, and Xinjiang. (2) The main factors contributing to the poverty of poverty-stricken villages in rural China include road construction, terrain type, frequency of natural disasters, per capita net income, labor force ratio, and cultural quality of labor force. The main causes of poverty include underdeveloped road construction conditions, frequent natural disasters, low level of income, and labor conditions. (3) Chinese poverty-stricken villages include six main subtypes, and most poverty-stricken villages are affected by multiple poverty-forming factors, reflected by a relatively high proportion of the three-factor dominant type, four-factor coordinative type, and five-factor combinative type. (4) There exist significant poverty differences in terms of geographical location and policy support, and the governments still need to carry out targeted poverty alleviation measures according to local conditions. The research can not only draw a macro overall poverty-reduction outline of impoverished villages in China, but also depict the specific poverty characteristics of each village, helping the government departments of poverty alleviation at all levels to mobilize all kinds of anti-poverty resources.     

Biodiversity Assessment of Mammal and Bird Species from Camera Trap Data in Yanchiwan National Nature Reserve,Gansu Province,China

Camera traps serve as an important tool for monitoring species diversity. We used data from camera traps set for capturing snow leopards (Panthera uncia) in the Yanchiwan National Nature Reserve, Gansu Province, China, to assess species richness with respect to mammal and birds species. We also assessed survey efficiency for species detection, and conducted an initial analysis of species interactions. The survey effort of 10, 171 camera workdays yielded 2, 868 suitable animal image events involving 17 mammal and 20 bird species. Among these, the dhole (Cuon alpinus) is considered to be Endangered, the snow leopard and white-lipped deer (Cervus albirostris) Vulnerable, and the Pallas’s cat (Feli smanul), mountain weasel (Mustela altaica), Himalayan griffon (Gyps himalayensis) and cinereous vulture (Aegypius monachus) Near Threatened under the IUCN red list. Fourteen species were also listed as key protected wild animals according to China national standards. Both the rarefaction curves and richness estimators suggested our sampling for mammal and pheasant species is sufficient, while more survey efforts are still needed to detect other bird species. With a focus on the dominant species Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), occupancy models were used to estimate site use and detection probability for selected species, and to investigate predator-prey relationships between lynx on the one hand and woolly hare (Lepus oiostolus), pika (Ochotona spp.) and Tibetan partridge (Perdix hodgsoniae) on the other. We give recommendations on how to increase efficiency in camera-based species inventory and biodiversity monitoring.     

基于组网观测的那曲土壤湿度不同时间尺度的变化特征

利用第三次青藏高原大气科学试验的土壤湿度观测数据,分析了那曲多空间尺度组网观测的28个站2、5、10、20和30 cm 5个不同深度土壤湿度的季节变化和日变化特征,并对比讨论了土壤湿度站点间的差异。分析表明,各层土壤湿度均存在显著的季节变化。冬春季节,20 cm以上土壤湿度随深度变浅而减小。夏秋季节土壤湿度随深度增加而减小,并分别在7月上、中旬和9月出现两个峰值。10月以后进入土壤湿度衰减期。土壤温度和土壤湿度存在协同变化关系。在一定的温度范围内,土壤发生冻结-融化过程,引起土壤湿度变化。在太阳辐射加热下,土壤表层水分蒸发,进而影响土壤温度。不同观测站间土壤湿度差异较大,夏秋季离散性大于冬春季。不同季节土壤湿度的日变化存在差异。春季10 cm以上土壤湿度日变化明显,08-10时（北京时）达到最低,19-20时达到最高。夏季土壤湿度日变化较为平缓。秋季2 cm深度土壤湿度日变化明显。线性拟合结果表明,1、4、10月土壤湿度和土壤温度为正相关关系。但是在夏季,土壤湿度与土壤温度为负相关。站点间土壤湿度变化的离散性表明,多测站才能全面体现青藏高原某区域的陆面状态。文中结果为青藏高原地区土壤湿度卫星参数验证和数值模式参数化提供了多角度的观测依据。      

Anomalous Western Pacific Subtropical High during El Ni ?no Developing Summer in Comparison with Decaying Summer

The anomalous behavior of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH) in El Nio developing summer is studied based on the composite results of eight major El Nio events during 1979–2013. It is shown that the WPSH tends to retreat eastwards with weak intensity during the developing summer. The anomaly exhibits an intraseasonal variation with a weaker anomaly in June and July and a stronger anomaly in August, indicating that different underlying physical mechanisms may be responsible for the anomalous WPSH during early and late summer periods. In June and July, owing to the cold advection anomaly characterized as a weak northerly anomaly from high latitudes, geopotential height in East Asia is reduced and the WPSH tends to retreat eastwards slightly. By contrast, enhanced convection over the warm pool in August makes the atmosphere more sensitive to El Nio forcing. Consequently, a cyclonic anomaly in the western Pacific is induced, which is consistent with the seasonal march of atmospheric circulation from July to August. Accordingly, geopotential height in the western Pacific is reduced significantly, and the WPSH tends to retreat eastwards remarkably in August. Different from the developing summer, geopotential height in the decaying summer over East Asia and the western Pacific tends to enhance and extend northwards from June to August consistently, reaching the maximum anomaly in August. Therefore, the seasonal march plays an important role in the WPSH anomaly for both the developing and decaying summer.     

2013—2016年北京朝阳站PM2.5质量浓度变化特征

利用2013年2月至2016年1月北京朝阳环境气象站PM2.5质量浓度和同步地面风数据,重点分析了PM2.5质量浓度的变化特征及受地面风的影响情况。观测期间测点PM2.5年平均质量浓度为80.6±4.0 μg·m-3,为环境空气质量标准(GB3095—2012)二级年均浓度限值(35 μg·m-3)的约2.3倍,季节变化特征明显,冬季最高（115.1 μg·m-3）、夏季最低（58.5 μg·m-3）。测点主导风向为ENE—E—ESE,风速主要集中在0.2~2.0 m·s-1。当地面风来自ENE—E—ESE方向时PM2.5质量浓度最高（109.1 μg·m-3）,来自WNW—NW—NNW方向时最低（39.5 μg·m-3）。PM2.5质量浓度随风速增大先上升后下降,在0.4 m·s-1时达最高,为139.2 μg·m-3。风速在0.2~2.0 m·s-1时主要受ENE—E—ESE方向影响,而2~6 m·s-1时主要受ESE方向影响较大。通过与其他站点的比较发现,不同站点各方向污染源和地面风的差异导致了PM2.5质量浓度在各方向分布的差异。     

地热勘探地质录井几个注意的问题

目前,北京市地热井的性质以探采结合为主,首先是“探”,其次是“采”。地质录井是地热勘探过程中获得原始资料最直接的方式,地质录井成果的质量对成井质量起着至关重要的作用。本文以北京市顺史区后沙峪地区顺后热-8地热井为例,针对地质录井工作中需要注意的岩样采集、钻进异常、地球物理测井和试井问题,进行了初步探讨。     

基于综合指标法的中国生态系统服务保护有效性评价研究

将生态系统服务保护纳入到传统的以保护区为基础的自然保护之中是生态保护研究的新领域。利用综合指标方法,分析了中国从2000-2010年的4种生态系统服务时空变化特征;并对中国的七大生态保护和恢复区域的服务空间保护成效进行评价,提出了国家尺度上的生态系统服务保护优先性分级。主要结论为：① 中国的生态系统服务自西北向东南逐渐增加,显著增加区主要分布在黄土高原地区,显著减少区主要分布在东北及华北地区。黄土高原的生态系统服务提高主要是农田向草地和林地、草地向林地的转换引的;华北地区的降低主要是耕地的减少以及人工用地的增加引起的;东北地区是由于林地向耕地草地、耕地向湿地与人工用地的转换引起的。② 七大生态保护和恢复区的生态系统服务均为增加趋势而且显著增加面积大于减少面积;显著增加面积最大的为三北防护林工程区、最小的为重点生态功能区;显著减少最大为重要生态功能区、最小的为三北防护林工程区。而且,对服务的保护成效在重要生态功能区最高,其次为天然林保护工程区,其余区域均小于全国平均水平。③ 提出的生态系统服务保护优先性等级中,极高级别占到了国土面积的26.18%,保护的生态系统服务量占到全国总量的64.19%,保护成效为全国平均水平的2.47倍。