RECOGNISING THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE QUANTIFICATION OF THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE

A widely used method of evaluating effects of climate change on flow regime is to perturb the climate inputs to a rainfall–runoff model and examine the effect on a statistic of the modelled flows. Such studies require four elements: a method of perturbing the climate, a rainfall–runoff model, a study catchment and a flow index. In practice the direction and magnitude of the estimated effects depend on each of the four elements, leading to concern over the usefulness and generality of the results. To investigate these uncertainties two climate scenarios and eight climate sensitivity tests have been applied to three UK catchments using two conceptual rainfall–runoff models in order to quantify effects of climate change on three flow indices representing mean runoff, flood magnitudes and low flows. The sensitivity tests were found to be useful to assess the suitability of the models to simulate flows outside the conditions experienced in their calibration. Both models gave internally consistent results but, on close examination, one model was found inappropriate for this application. Results show that the effect of climate change on flow varies between catchments and that different flow response indices can change in opposite directions, e.g. floods increased in magnitude while low flows reduced. Contrasting results were obtained from the two climate scenarios.     

Photometric monitoring of 2060 Chiron''s brightness at perihelion

The results of photometric and spectroscopic observations of comet/asteroid 2060 Chiron carried on at the Observatório do Pico-dos-Dias (Brazil), at the European Southern Observatory (Chile) and at the Mauna Kea Observatory (Hawaii) during 1996 are presented. The analysis of the photometric data shows that even at a minimum of brightness 2060 Chiron presents some activity. The absolute magnitude, H_v, varied from 6.79 in February to 6.22 in March. Therefore 2060 Chiron is still in a minimum of activity close to that of 1983–1985 and of 1994–1995.     

Evaluation of riverbed magnetic susceptibility for mapping biogeochemical hot spots in groundwater-impacted rivers

Redox hot spots occurring as metal-rich anoxic groundwater discharges through oxic wetland and river sediments commonly result in the formation of iron (Fe) oxide precipitates. These redox-sensitive precipitates influence the release of nutrients and metals to surface water and can act as ‘contaminant sponges’ by absorbing toxic compounds. We explore the feasibility of a non-invasive, high-resolution magnetic susceptibility (MS) technique to efficiently map the spatial variations of magnetic Fe oxide precipitates in the shallow bed of three rivers impacted by anoxic groundwater discharge. Laboratory analyses on Mashpee River (MA, USA) sediments demonstrate the sensitivity of MS to sediment Fe concentrations. Field surveys in the Mashpee and Quashnet rivers (MA, USA) reveal several discrete high MS zones, which are associated with likely anoxic groundwater discharge as evaluated by riverbed temperature, vertical head gradient, and groundwater chemistry measurements. In the East River (CO, USA), widespread cobbles/rocks exhibit high background MS from geological ferrimagnetic minerals, thereby obscuring the relatively small enhancement of MS from groundwater induced Fe oxide precipitates. Our study suggests that, in settings with low geological sources of magnetic minerals such as lowland rivers and wetlands, MS may serve as a complementary tool to temperature methods for efficiently mapping Fe oxide accumulation zones due to anoxic groundwater discharges that may function as biogeochemical hot spots and water quality control points in gaining systems.     

Statistical models for the assessment of nitrate contamination in urban groundwater using GIS

The purpose of this study is to develop statistical models for groundwater quality assessment in urban areas using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). To develop the models, the concentrations of nitrate (expressed as nitrogen, NO₃-N), which are different according to the type of land use, well depth and distribution of rainfall, were analyzed in the Seoul (the capital of South Korea) area. Data such as land use, location of wells and groundwater quality data for nitrate contamination were collected and a database constructed within GIS. The distribution of NO₃-N concentrations is not normal, and the results of the Mann-Whitney U-test analysis show the difference of NO₃-N concentration by well depth and by distribution of rainfall. In both the shallow and deep wells, the radius of influence is 200 m in the dry season and 250 m in the rainy season, showing the tendency to increase in the rainy season. The results of correlation and regression analysis indicate that mixed residential and business areas and cropped field areas are likely to be the major contributor of increasing NO₃-N concentration. Land uses are better correlated with NO₃-N in deep wells than in shallow wells.     

Marine mammals from northeast Atlantic: relationship between their trophic status as determined by delta13C and delta15N measurements and their trace metal concentrations

The relationship between trophic position through delta13C and delta15N and trace metal concentrations (Zn, Cd, Cu and Hg) was investigated in the tissues of six marine mammal species from the Northeast Atlantic: striped dolphin Stenella coeruleoalba, common dolphin, Delphinus delphis, Atlantic white-sided dolphin Lagenorhynchus acutus, harbour porpoise Phocoena phocoena, white beaked-dolphin Lagenorhynchus albirostris, grey seal Halichoerus grypus stranded on French Channel and Irish coasts. White-beaked dolphins, harbour porpoises, white-sided dolphins, common and striped dolphins display the same relative and decreasing trophic position, as measured by delta15N values, along both the Irish and French channel coasts, reflecting conservative trophic habits between these two places. Hepatic and renal Cd concentrations were significantly correlated to muscle delta13C and delta15N values while Hg, Zn and Cu did not. These results suggest that Cd accumulation is partly linked to the diet while other factors such as age or body condition might explain Hg, Zn or Cu variability in marine mammals. Combined stable isotope and trace metal analyses appear to be useful tools for the study of marine mammal ecology.     

Assessment of Submarine Groundwater Discharge (SGD) as a Source of Dissolved Radium and Nutrients to Moorea (French Polynesia) Coastal Waters

Previous work has documented large fluxes of freshwater and nutrients from submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) into the coastal waters of a few volcanic oceanic islands. However, on the majority of such islands, including Moorea (French Polynesia), SGD has not been studied. In this study, we used radium (Ra) isotopes and salinity to investigate SGD and associated nutrient inputs at five coastal sites and Paopao Bay on the north shore of Moorea. Ra activities were highest in coastal groundwater, intermediate in coastal ocean surface water, and lowest in offshore surface water, indicating that high-Ra groundwater was discharging into the coastal ocean. On average, groundwater nitrate and nitrite (N + N), phosphate, ammonium, and silica concentrations were 12, 21, 29, and 33 times greater, respectively, than those in coastal ocean surface water, suggesting that groundwater discharge could be an important source of nutrients to the coastal ocean. Ra and salinity mass balances indicated that most or all SGD at these sites was saline and likely originated from a deeper, unsampled layer of Ra-enriched recirculated seawater. This high-salinity SGD may be less affected by terrestrial nutrient sources, such as fertilizer, sewage, and animal waste, compared to meteoric groundwater; however, nutrient-salinity trends indicate it may still have much higher concentrations of nitrate and phosphate than coastal receiving waters. Coastal ocean nutrient concentrations were virtually identical to those measured offshore, suggesting that nutrient subsidies from SGD are efficiently utilized.     

Age and Geochemical Characteristics of a Mafic Dyke Swarm in the Archaean Vestfold Block, Antarctica: Inferences about Proterozoic Dyke Emplacement in Gondwana

Archaean gneisses in the Vestfold Block, Antarctica are cutby abundant tholeiite and rare alkaline dykes. At least fivegenerations of dykes have been recognized on the basis of intrusiverelationships, petrography and geochemistry. Rb-Sr isotopicdata indicate that intrusion of the tholeiites occurred overa period of c. 1000 Ma, during three clearly defined events(viz. c. 2400, 1800, and 1400 Ma). Dykes in the southwesternpart of the Vestfold Block were recrystallized during a lateProterozoic (c. 1000-1100 Ma) high-grade event. Mineral-wholerock Rb-Sr isotopic data show that the terrain was also variablyaffected by an even younger thermal event c. 500 Ma ago whichis correlated with the Pan-African Orogeny. Isotopic, major element and trace element data suggest thatthe tholeiite dyke suites were derived by varying degrees ofpartial melting of compositionally distinct, in some cases ratherheterogeneous subcontinental mantle source regions, combinedwith variations in the extent and nature of crystal fractionation.Extensive crustal contamination does not appear to have playeda significant role in determining compositional trends withinthe different suites, although minor contamination cannot bediscounted. The oldest dykes, a diverse group of high-Mg tholeiites,and the youngest, c. 1400 Ma tholeiites, appear to have beenderived from isotopically similar source regions, which werenevertheless characterized by quite different abundances ofhighly incompatible elements (Pb, Rb, Ba, Th, K, La, and Ce).1800 Ma tholeiites were derived from a more radiogenic mantlesource region, characterized by long-term enrichment in incompatibleelements. Such enrichment is interpreted to be a consequenceof metasomatism of their mantle source region. 2400 Ma high-Mg dykes in Enderby Land have virtually identicalchemical and isotopic compositions to those in the VestfoldBlock, indicating generation from a similar source region; however,1200 Ma tholeiites were apparently derived from a more radiogenicsource region like that of the c. 1800 Ma Vestfold Block dykes.Hence, both Sr isotopic and geochemical data indicate that theancient subcontinental lithospheric mantle beneath Gondwanawas extremely heterogeneous.     

Petrography, chemistry and origin of early diagenetic concretions in the Lower Carboniferous of the Isle of Man

Three silicified limestone horizons of D1 age from the Visean of the Isle of Man contain calcitic concretions with peripheral silica crusts, occasionally surrounded by a further calcitic layer. Components of the original sediment include carbonate skeletons, carbonaceous grains, sponge spicules and muscovite. Diagenetic products include calcite, dolomite, pyrite, sphalerite, clays, feldspar and quartz. The concretions are composed of neomorphic calcite. The time of recrystallization and the identity of the neomorphic precurosor are both unknown. Displacive, fibrous calcite is chemically similar to neomorphic calcite and both are of early diagenetic age. Granular and rhombic ferroan calcites are of late diagenetic age and were precipitated from pore-waters with Sr/Ca, Mg/Ca and Fe/Ca ratios unlike those of seawater. The difference between early silicification which produced silica crusts and later diffuse silicification of the host sediment is related to a change in sediment transmissivity between the two silicification periods. A four-fold scheme of concretionary growth is proposed. The supply of silica is from sponge spicules and that of carbonate from seawater via porewater. The distribution of organic matter, either as sporadic large carcasses or as small carcasses concentrated in particular horizons, is believed to be vital for carbonate precipitation and controls the distribution of concretions. Awareness of the multiplicity of diagenetic changes is essential in interpretation of early porewater systems and in the origin of products which are often metastable and destined to subsequent changes. No single model is an explanation for all types of concretionary growth.     

Seasonal Diatom Variability and Paleolimnological Inferences – A Case Study

The seasonality of physical, chemical, and biological water variables is a major characteristic of temperate, dimictic lakes. Yet, few investigations have considered the potential information that is encoded in seasonal dynamics with respect to the paleolimnological record. We used a one-year sequence of diatoms obtained from sediment traps and water samples, as well as the sedimentary diatom record covering the past ca. 1000 years in Bates Pond, Connecticut (USA), to investigate which variables influence the seasonal distribution of diatoms and how this can be used for the interpretation of the fossil record. The seasonal patterns in diatom assemblages were related to stratification and, to a lesser extent, to nitrate, silica, and phosphorus. During mixing periods in spring and autumn, both planktonic and benthic species were collected in the traps, while few lightly silicified, spindle-shaped planktonic diatoms dominated during thermal stratification in summer. Changes in fossil diatom assemblages reflected human activity in the watershed after European settlement and subsequent recovery in the 20th century. A long-term trend in diatom assemblage change initiated before European settlement was probably related to increased length of mixing periods during the Little Ice Age, indicated by the increase of taxa that presently grow during mixing periods and by application of a preliminary seasonal temperature model. We argue that the analysis of seasonal diatom dynamics in temperate lakes may provide important information for the refinement of paleolimnological interpretations. However, investigations of several lakes and years would be desirable in order to establish a more robust seasonal data set for the enhancement of paleolimnological interpretations.