Conditional spectrum‐based ground motion selection. Part I: Hazard consistency for risk‐based assessments

The conditional spectrum (CS, with mean and variability) is a target response spectrum that links nonlinear dynamic analysis back to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for ground motion selection. The CS is computed on the basis of a specified conditioning period, whereas structures under consideration may be sensitive to response spectral amplitudes at multiple periods of excitation. Questions remain regarding the appropriate choice of conditioning period when utilizing the CS as the target spectrum. This paper focuses on risk‐based assessments, which estimate the annual rate of exceeding a specified structural response amplitude. Seismic hazard analysis, ground motion selection, and nonlinear dynamic analysis are performed, using the conditional spectra with varying conditioning periods, to assess the performance of a 20‐story reinforced concrete frame structure. It is shown here that risk‐based assessments are relatively insensitive to the choice of conditioning period when the ground motions are carefully selected to ensure hazard consistency. This observed insensitivity to the conditioning period comes from the fact that, when CS‐based ground motion selection is used, the distributions of response spectra of the selected ground motions are consistent with the site ground motion hazard curves at all relevant periods; this consistency with the site hazard curves is independent of the conditioning period. The importance of an exact CS (which incorporates multiple causal earthquakes and ground motion prediction models) to achieve the appropriate spectral variability at periods away from the conditioning period is also highlighted. The findings of this paper are expected theoretically but have not been empirically demonstrated previously. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Conditional spectrum‐based ground motion selection. Part II: Intensity‐based assessments and evaluation of alternative target spectra

In a companion paper, an overview and problem definition was presented for ground motion selection on the basis of the conditional spectrum (CS), to perform risk‐based assessments (which estimate the annual rate of exceeding a specified structural response amplitude) for a 20‐story reinforced concrete frame structure. Here, the methodology is repeated for intensity‐based assessments (which estimate structural response for ground motions with a specified intensity level) to determine the effect of conditioning period. Additionally, intensity‐based and risk‐based assessments are evaluated for two other possible target spectra, specifically the uniform hazard spectrum (UHS) and the conditional mean spectrum (CMS, without variability).It is demonstrated for the structure considered that the choice of conditioning period in the CS can substantially impact structural response estimates in an intensity‐based assessment. When used for intensity‐based assessments, the UHS typically results in equal or higher median estimates of structural response than the CS; the CMS results in similar median estimates of structural response compared with the CS but exhibits lower dispersion because of the omission of variability. The choice of target spectrum is then evaluated for risk‐based assessments, showing that the UHS results in overestimation of structural response hazard, whereas the CMS results in underestimation. Additional analyses are completed for other structures to confirm the generality of the conclusions here. These findings have potentially important implications both for the intensity‐based seismic assessments using the CS in future building codes and the risk‐based seismic assessments typically used in performance‐based earthquake engineering applications. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantity, composition, and source of sediment collected in sediment traps along the fringing coral reef off Molokai, Hawaii

Sediment traps were used to evaluate the frequency, cause, and relative intensity of sediment mobility/resuspension along the fringing coral reef off southern Molokai (February 2000-May 2002). Two storms with high rainfall, floods, and exceptionally high waves resulted in sediment collection rates>1000 times higher than during non-storm periods, primarily because of sediment resuspension by waves. Based on quantity and composition of trapped sediment, floods recharged the reef flat with land-derived sediment, but had a low potential for burying coral on the fore reef when accompanied by high waves. The trapped sediments have low concentrations of anthropogenic metals. The magnetic properties of trapped sediment may provide information about the sources of land-derived sediment reaching the fore reef. The high trapping rate and low sediment cover indicate that coral surfaces on the fore reef are exposed to transient resuspended sediment, and that the traps do not measure net sediment accumulation on the reef surface.     

Testing the effects of ocean heat transport on climate

An atmospheric general circulation model is run with boundary conditions representing different amounts of equator-to-pole oceanic heat transport. Oceanic heat transport underneath sea ice is held fixed, minimizing positive feedbacks due to sea ice and thereby providing a lower bound on the effects of oceanic heat transport on climate. When oceanic heat transport is reduced, some compensating increases in atmospheric heat transport occur, but tropical surface temperatures increase and atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns undergo significant changes. We conclude that the ability of the oceans to generate past and future climatic changes through transport of heat is substantial, even though it is limited by a tendency of the atmosphere to partly compensate for changes in oceanic heat transport.     

A late Holocene paleoclimatic history of Lake Tanganyika, East Africa

A nearshore core (LT03-05) from the north basin of Lake Tanganyika provides diatom, pollen, and sedimentary time series covering the last ca. 3800 yr at 15-36 yr resolution. A chronology supported by 21 AMS dates on terrestrial and lacustrine materials allows us to account for ancient carbon effects on ¹⁴C ages and to propose refinements of the region's climatic history. Conditions drier than those of today were followed after ca. 3.30 ka by an overall wetting trend. Several century-scale climate variations were superimposed upon that trend, with exceptionally rainy conditions occurring 1.70-1.40 ka, 1.15-0.90 ka, 0.70-0.55 ka, and 0.35-0.20 ka. Around 0.55-0.35 ka, during the Spörer sunspot minimum, drier conditions developed in the northern Tanganyika basin while more humid conditions were registered at Lakes Victoria and Naivasha. This indicates significant variability in the nature and distribution of near-equatorial rainfall anomalies during much of the Little Ice Age.