Validation and evaluation of two multivariate statistical models for predictive shallow landslide susceptibility mapping of the Eastern Pyrenees (Spain)

This paper deals with the quality of two multivariate statistical models based on the Geographical Information System for shallow landslide susceptibility assessment in a test area at La Pobla de Lillet (Eastern Pyrenees, Spain). The quality, which was guaranteed by a rigorous methodology based on a suitable diagnosis, validation, and evaluation of the models, ensured a reliable contrast of the final susceptibility maps. This enables us to transfer the best results to the end user. Landslide susceptibility models were carried out by logistic regression and discriminant analysis of the significant conditioning factors related to the characteristics of the slope and the upslope contributing area captured from the digital elevation model and landslide distribution. The explanatory variables were tested (KS test, principal components and one-way and T-test) to select the most statistically significant ones before being introduced into the logistic and discriminant analyses. Accuracy statistics and the receiver operating characteristic curve used for diagnosis and validation showed similar prediction skills and a good fit to the data with more than 85% of unfailed cells properly classified for the two models. The evaluation of the study area and the correlation function (R ² = 0.83) between the models revealed that the discriminant model overestimated the susceptibility of the most stable zones with respect to the logistic model. Different methods of producing susceptibility maps showed marked differences in matching the models. Substantial spatial agreement (Kappa = 0.741) between binary maps produced by the standard cut-off value descended moderately (Kappa = 0.540) as a result of superimposing maps with five susceptibility levels defined by landslide percentage. Despite the fact that the two statistical models are similar in assessing susceptibility in the study area, the implications for hazard and risk management can be different because of the conservative nature of the discriminant model.     

Large-Eddy Simulation of Coherent Flow Structures within a Cubical Canopy

Instantaneous flow structures “within” a cubical canopy are investigated via large-eddy simulation. The main topics of interest are, (1) large-scale coherent flow structures within a cubical canopy, (2) how the structures are coupled with the turbulent organized structures (TOS) above them, and (3) the classification and quantification of representative instantaneous flow patterns within a street canyon in relation to the coherent structures. We use a large numerical domain (2,560 m × 2,560 m × 1,710 m) with a fine spatial resolution (2.5 m), thereby simulating a complete daytime atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), as well as explicitly resolving a regular array of cubes (40 m in height) at the surface. A typical urban ABL is numerically modelled. In this situation, the constant heat supply from roof and floor surfaces sustains a convective mixed layer as a whole, but strong wind shear near the canopy top maintains the surface layer nearly neutral. The results reveal large coherent structures in both the velocity and temperature fields “within” the canopy layer. These structures are much larger than the cubes, and their shapes and locations are shown to be closely related to the TOS above them. We classify the instantaneous flow patterns in a cavity, specifically focusing on two characteristic flow patterns: flushing and cavity-eddy events. Flushing indicates a strong upward motion, while a cavity eddy is characterized by a dominant vortical motion within a single cavity. Flushing is clearly correlated with the TOS above, occurring frequently beneath low-momentum streaks. The instantaneous momentum and heat transport within and above a cavity due to flushing and cavity-eddy events are also quantified.     

Ordinary chondrite-like colors in small Koronis family members

A survey of small (<5-10 km diameter) members of the Koronis family shows some objects with visible-wavelength broadband colors consistent with membership in the Q-class (Tholen, D.J. [1984]. Asteroid taxonomy from cluster analysis of photometry. Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; Bus, S.J., Binzel, R.P. [2002]. Icarus 158, 146-177). This agrees with an ordinary chondritic composition for this family and suggests the timescale for changing Q-class to S-class spectra in the main belt is roughly comparable to the regolith refresh time in the 2-5 km size range.     

Demersal fishes in a tropical bay in southeastern Brazil: Partitioning the spatial, temporal and environmental components of ecological variation

This study analyzed the factors structuring demersal fish community in a tropical bay in southeastern Brazil. The results were used to quantify the partitioning of ecological variation among the environmental, spatial and temporal components molding the fish community. Three bay zones (inner, middle and outer) were defined according to depth and salinity gradient. Monthly samplings were conducted by bottom trawl tows during daylight hours, between October 1998 and September 1999. In each zone, three replicate samples were taken. Ninety-three fish species from 73 genera and 37 families were recorded in the 108 samples. Two demersal fish assemblages were evidenced, one in the inner and the other in the outer zone. These assemblages were characterized by changes in species composition and relative abundance. Depth, followed by transparency and salinity, influenced spatial pattern of fish assemblages. The largest part of the explained variation occurred as a result of the spatial structure of environmental variables, which means that both species and environmental variables presented similar spatial structure. The spatial effect, not the seasonal, explained the highest part of species variations. The amount of unexplained variation was relatively high (76%), even assuming that part of it is due to nondeterministic fluctuation, which could be due to local effects of unmeasured (biotic and abiotic) controlling variables. Knowing the relative importance of these factors can be of decisive importance when applying casual hypotheses in the framework of some precise ecological theory and should facilitate management, planning, and usage of bay resources.     

Assessment of toxicological status of a SW Mediterranean segment population of striped dolphin (Stenella coeruleoalba) using skin biopsy

Various studies have revealed high concentrations of contaminants such as organochlorines (OCs) and heavy metals in Mediterranean cetaceans. A geographical trend of contamination (PCBs and DDTs) has been found for striped dolphin (Stenella coeruleoalba). In this study we used a non-lethal approach (skin biopsy) to investigate bioaccumulation of OCs, including polychlorobiphenyls (PCBs), DDTs, polychlorodibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorodibenzofurans (PCDFs), trace elements (Hg, Cd, Pb) and CYP1A activity (BPMO) in nine striped dolphins sampled in the Aeolian area (Sicily - Italy) in summer 2002. The arithmetic mean value of BPMO activity in this group was 43.46 AUF/g tissue/h. This value is approximately 3 times and 5 times lower, respectively, than the value found in the Ionian and in the Ligurian groups. Skin biopsies of striped dolphins emerged as a suitable material for assessing the toxicological status of the various Mediterranean groups.     

Do endocrine disrupting chemicals threaten Mediterranean swordfish? Preliminary results of vitellogenin and Zona radiata proteins in Xiphias gladius

Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals (EDCs) have the potential to alter hormone pathways that regulate reproductive processes in wildlife and fishes. In this research the hypothesis that Mediterranean top predator species (such as large pelagic fish) are potentially at risk due to EDCs is investigated. These marine organisms tend to accumulate high concentrations of EDCs such as polyhalogenated aromatic hydrocarbons (PHAHs). The potential effects of EDCs on a fish species of commercial interest, the top predator Xiphias gladius (swordfish), were investigated using vitellogenin (Vtg) and Zona radiata proteins (Zrp) as diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers. Dramatic induction of typically female proteins (Vtg and Zrp) was detected by ELISA and Western Blot in adult males of the species. These results are the first warning of the potential risk for reproductive function of Mediterranean top predators, and suggest the need for continuous monitoring of this fragile marine environment.     

The Schwarzschild Problem in Astrophysics

The Schwarzschild problem (the two-body problem associated to apotential of the form A/r + B/r³ has been qualitativelyinvestigated in an astrophysical framework, exemplified by two likelysituations: motion of a particle in the photogravitational field ofan oblate, rotating star, or in that of a star which generates aSchwarzschild field. Using McGehee-type transformations, regularizedequations of motion are obtained, and the collision singularity isblown up and replaced by the collision manifold (a torus)pasted on the phase space. The flow on is fullycharacterized. Then, reducing the 4D phase space to dimension 2, theglobal flow in the phase plane is depicted for all possible values ofthe energy and for all combinations of nonzero A and B. Eachphase trajectory is interpreted in terms of physical motion,obtaining in this way a telling geometric and physical picture of themodel.     

Synoptic hydrography of a highly stratified estuary

This study investigates the hydrodynamic characteristics of the lower, middle, and upper sectors of a highly stratified estuary, the Itajaí-Açu river estuary (south of Brazil ∼27° S/48.5° W). The study is based on a 25-h field campaign with three sampling stations positioned at 2, 17, and 38 km inward from the river mouth, during low river discharge condition and spring tide. The experimental data gathered was reduced and analyzed in terms of distribution of variables in time and space tide average vertical profiles and decomposition of the advective transport of salt and suspended particulate matter (SPM). Tidal range was nearly constant along the estuary, presenting time lag of about 2 h between lower and upper estuary. The ebb discharge peaks were about twice the discharge flood peaks and occurred simultaneously. The tide was the main determining agent in the lower estuary, where currents, salt stratification, and SPM distributions presented a repetitive behavior. In the middle estuary, the tide effects were also observed, but the presence of saline waters decreased along the time due to increasing river discharge during the campaign. The distribution of SPM in the mid- and upper estuary presented patched pattern not associated with tides and may be attributed to short-term flood contributions of tributaries. Currents presented ebb dominance in all three sectors; in the middle and upper estuary, they presented also a time asymmetry, with ebb currents longer than flood. The advective transport of salt in the lower estuary was upstream, with dominance of gravitational circulation term. In the mid-estuary, there was practically no transport, with balance between fluvial discharge (downstream) and tidal correlation (upstream). The advective transport of SPM was upstream in the lower estuary and downstream in the mid- and upper estuary, being dominated by gravitational circulation in the former and fluvial discharge in the others.