Seismic expression of active extensional faults in northern Umbria (Central Italy)

This paper deals with the geometry and kinematics of the active normal faults in northern Umbria, and their relationship with the seismicity observed in the area. In particular, we illustrate the contribution of seismic reflection data (a network of seismic profiles, NNW–SSE and WSW–ENE trending) in constraining at depth the geometry of the different active fault systems and their reciprocal spatial relationships. The main normal fault in the area is the Alto Tiberina fault, NNW trending and ENE dipping, producing a displacement of about 5 km, and generating a continental basin (Val Tiberina basin), infilled by up to 1500 m with Upper Pliocene–Quaternary deposits. The fault has a staircase trajectory, and can be traced on the seismic profiles to a depth of about 13 km. A set of WSW-dipping, antithetic faults can be recognised on the profiles, the most important of which is the Gubbio fault, bordering an extensional Quaternary basin and interpreted as an active fault based on geological, geomorphologic and seismological evidence. The epicentral distribution of the main historical earthquakes is strictly parallel to the general trend of the normal faults. The focal mechanisms of the major earthquakes show a strong similarity with the attitude of the extensional faults, mapped at the surface and recognised on the seismic profiles. These observations demonstrate the connection between seismicity in the area and the activity of the normal faults. Moreover, the distribution of the instrumental seismicity suggests the activity of the Alto Tiberina fault as the basal detachment for the extensional tectonics of the area. Finally, the action of the Alto Tiberina fault was simulated using two dimensional finite element modelling: a close correspondence between the concentration of shear stresses in the model and the distribution of the present earthquakes was obtained.     

Comparing ARIMA and computational intelligence methods to forecast daily hospital admissions due to circulatory and respiratory causes in Madrid

Anticipating future workloads in a hospital may be of capital importance in order to distribute resources and improve patient attention. In this paper, we tackle the problem of predicting daily hospital admissions in Madrid due to circulatory and respiratory cases based on biometeorological indicators. A range of forecasting algorithms were proposed covering four model families: ensemble methods, boosting methods, artificial neural networks and ARIMA. Experiments show how the last two obtain better results in average, demonstrating that the problem can be properly solved with both approaches. Furthermore, a recently proposed technique known as stacked generalization was also used to dynamically combine the predictions from the four models, finally improving the performance with respect to the individual models.     

Inter-annual changes in fish communities of a tropical bay in southeastern Brazil: What can be inferred from anthropogenic activities?

We assessed inter-annual changes in fish assemblages of a tropical bay which experienced a heavily industrialized process in the last decades. A highly significant difference in community structure among the bay zones, and a decrease in fish richness and abundance over time were found. Changes in fish richness and abundance between the two first (1987–1988 and 1993–1995) and the two latter time periods (1998–2001 and 2012–2013) were sharpest in the inner bay zone, the most impacted bay area, and in the middle zone, whereas the outer zone remained comparatively stable over time. These changes coincided with increased metal pollution (mainly, Zn and Cd) in the bay and with the enlargement of the Sepetiba Port. Spatial changes in the fish community structure among the bay zones were related to differences in salinity, transparency and depth with this latter variable acting as a buffer stabilizing temporal community changes.     

Humic substances in estuarine soils colonized by Spartina maritima

This study characterizes humic substances (HS) from two soils colonized by Spartina maritima at different physiographical positions in estuarine environments on the north-western coast of the Iberian Peninsula: the Villaviciosa site, a stand close to the main tidal channel, and the Ortigueira site, located in the low salt marsh. Humic and fulvic acids were extracted from the soils and characterized qualitatively by the following spectroscopic techniques: Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, fluorescence spectroscopy and solid-state ¹³C nuclear magnetic resonance.The characterized HS showed a predominance of low humified compounds with a high proportion of aliphatic components and a low degree of aromaticity. The HS composition differed substantially between sites. In the Villaviciosa soil, the large amount of nonpolar aliphatic components and the very low degree of aromaticity may indicate a significant contribution of marine organic matter and/or microbial material to the HS. However, in the HS from the Ortigueira soil, the higher proportion of polysaccharides together with the presence of lignin-derived compounds may indicate greater inputs of vascular plant material. The δ¹³C isotopic composition of the bulk soils highlights the large input of Spartina maritima debris to the Ortigueira site, whereas in the Villaviciosa site, organic contributions from this C4 vascular plant were not so evident.The results indicate that in these soils colonized by Spartina maritima, physiographical position has an important effect on the composition of soil HS and, therefore, must be considered in the study of organic matter characteristics in such estuarine environments.     

The influence of seasonality on estimating return values of significant wave height

A time-dependent generalized extreme value (GEV) model for monthly significant wave heights maxima is developed. The model is applied to several 3-hour time series from the Spanish buoy network. Monthly maxima show a clear non-stationary behavior within a year, suggesting that the location, scale and shape parameters of the GEV distribution can be parameterized using harmonic functions. To avoid a possible over-parameterization, an automatic selection model, based on the Akaike Information Criterion, is carried out. Results show that the non-stationary behavior of monthly maxima significant wave height is adequately modeled, drastically increasing the significance of the parameters involved and reducing the uncertainty in the return level estimation. The model provides new information to analyze the seasonal behavior of wave height extremes affecting different natural coastal processes.     

The importance of data discovery and management in advancing ecosystem-based management

The aim of the Geospatial Assessment of Marine Ecosystems (GAME) project is to develop an inventory of habitat-related data within the Gulf of Mexico and East coast of Florida. This will serve as a foundation to develop a spatial framework for ecosystem-based management associated with regulatory and planning programs and areas of governmental coordination.     

Copper complexation capacity in surface waters of the Venice Lagoon

Total copper (Cu(T)), copper ion activity (pCu) and the copper complexation capacity (CuCC) were determined in samples of seawater collected in July 2003 from the Venice Lagoon. Cu(T) and CuCC showed considerable spatial variability: Cu(T) ranged from 1.8 to 70.0nM, whereas the CuCC varied from 195 to 573nM. pCu values varied from 11.6 to 12.6 and are consistent with those previously reported in estuarine and coastal areas (10.9-14.1). The range of Cu(T) values compares well with those reported in the past in the lagoon and in the adjacent Adriatic Sea. The highest concentrations of Cu(T) were found in samples collected near the industrial area of Porto Marghera, whereas the lowest were measured near the Chioggia and Malamocco inlets, where an intense tidally-driven renewal of seawater takes place. Although CuCC showed a high degree of spatial variability, the values recorded in the Venice Lagoon are comparable to those reported in other estuarine systems. In addition, CuCC was positively correlated with dissolved organic carbon (DOC), suggesting that organic ligands responsible for Cu complexation are part of the bulk organic matter pool in the lagoon. The CuCC:Cu(T) molar ratio was, on average 55:1, indicating that a large excess of complexation capacity exists in the Venice Lagoon. The high levels of CuCC and the narrow range of pCu indicates the importance of the role played by organic ligands in controlling the free ion Cu concentrations in the lagoon, and as a consequence, regulating its availability and/or toxicity.     

The impact of heat waves on surface urban heat island and local economy in Cluj-Napoca city,Romania

The association between heat waves and the urban heat island effect can increase the impact on environment and society inducing biophysical hazards. Heat stress and their associated public health problems are among the most frequent. This paper explores the heat waves impact on surface urban heat island and on the local economy loss during three heat periods in Cluj-Napoca city in the summer of 2015. The heat wave events were identified based on daily maximum temperature, and they were divided into three classes considering the intensity threshold: moderate heat waves (daily maximum temperature exceeding the 90th percentile), severe heat waves (daily maximum temperature over the 95th percentile), and extremely severe heat waves (daily maximum temperature exceeding the 98th percentile). The minimum length of an event was of minimum three consecutive days. The surface urban heat island was detected based on land surface temperature derived from Landsat 8 thermal infrared data, while the economic impact was estimated based on data on work force structure and work productivity in Cluj-Napoca derived from the data released by Eurostat, National Bank of Romania, and National Institute of Statistics. The results indicate that the intensity and spatial extension of surface urban heat island could be governed by the magnitude of the heat wave event, but due to the low number of satellite images available, we should consider this information only as preliminary results. Thermal infrared remote sensing has proven to be a very efficient method to study surface urban heat island, due to the fact that the synoptic conditions associated with heat wave events usually favor cloud free image. The resolution of the OLI_TIRS sensor provided good results for a mid-extension city, but the low revisiting time is still a drawback. The potential economic loss was calculated for the working days during heat waves and the estimated loss reached more than 2.5 mil. EUR for each heat wave day at city scale, cumulating more than 38 mil. EUR for the three cases considered.     

Experimental study of the zooplankton impact on the trophic structure of phytoplankton and the microbial assemblages in a temperate wetland (Argentina)

An experimental study using mesocosms was conducted in the main shallow lake of a temperate wetland (Otamendi Natural Reserve, Argentina) to analyse the impact of zooplankton on phytoplankton and the microbial assemblages. The lake is characterised by the presence of a fluctuating cover of floating macrophytes, whose shading effects shape the phytoplakton community and the ecosystem functioning, which was absent during the study period. The experiment was run in situ using polyethylene bags, comparing treatments with and without zooplankton. The cascade effect of zooplankton on phytoplankton and the lower levels of the microbial food web (ciliates, heterotrophic nanoflagellates (HNF) and picoplankton) were analysed.A significant zooplankton grazing on the nano-phytoplankton fraction (3–30 μm) was observed. Conversely, large algae (filamentous cyanobacteria, colonial chlorophytes and large diatoms) increased in all mesocosms until day 10, suggesting that they were not actively grazed by zooplankton during this period. However, from day 10 until day 17 this fraction decreased in the enclosures with mesozooplankton, probably due to an increase in the abundance of large herbivores.The results of the experiment would also indicate a trophic cascade effect on the lower levels of the microbial community. In the treatment where zooplankton was removed, the abundance of ciliates followed the same increasing pattern as the abundance of HNF, but with a time lag in its response. In the enclosures without zooplankton, HNF remained relatively constant throughout the experiment, whereas ciliates strongly decrease during the last week. Total picoplankton abundance increased in the enclosures with mesozooplankton, thus supporting the existence of a four-link trophic cascade (copepods–microzooplankton–HNF–picoplankton). Zooplankton composition changed significantly from the beginning until the end of the experiment; cyclopoid nauplii and rotifers were notoriously dominant at t₀, whereas 10 days later the community showed a more equitable proportion of cyclopoids, calanoids, nauplii, cladocerans and rotifers.