Validation and evaluation of two multivariate statistical models for predictive shallow landslide susceptibility mapping of the Eastern Pyrenees (Spain)

This paper deals with the quality of two multivariate statistical models based on the Geographical Information System for shallow landslide susceptibility assessment in a test area at La Pobla de Lillet (Eastern Pyrenees, Spain). The quality, which was guaranteed by a rigorous methodology based on a suitable diagnosis, validation, and evaluation of the models, ensured a reliable contrast of the final susceptibility maps. This enables us to transfer the best results to the end user. Landslide susceptibility models were carried out by logistic regression and discriminant analysis of the significant conditioning factors related to the characteristics of the slope and the upslope contributing area captured from the digital elevation model and landslide distribution. The explanatory variables were tested (KS test, principal components and one-way and T-test) to select the most statistically significant ones before being introduced into the logistic and discriminant analyses. Accuracy statistics and the receiver operating characteristic curve used for diagnosis and validation showed similar prediction skills and a good fit to the data with more than 85% of unfailed cells properly classified for the two models. The evaluation of the study area and the correlation function (R ² = 0.83) between the models revealed that the discriminant model overestimated the susceptibility of the most stable zones with respect to the logistic model. Different methods of producing susceptibility maps showed marked differences in matching the models. Substantial spatial agreement (Kappa = 0.741) between binary maps produced by the standard cut-off value descended moderately (Kappa = 0.540) as a result of superimposing maps with five susceptibility levels defined by landslide percentage. Despite the fact that the two statistical models are similar in assessing susceptibility in the study area, the implications for hazard and risk management can be different because of the conservative nature of the discriminant model.     

Relationship between electrical conductivity, <Superscript>18</Superscript>O of water and NO<Subscript>3</Subscript> content in different streamflow stages

The Ballenera Creek has 160 km² being a small catchment in the Pampa Plain in Argentina. This area has been deeply modified by human action through agricultural activities. From 2013 to 2017, electrical conductivity, stable isotopes of water and nitrate concentration monitoring program were conducted. The sampling included weekly and bimonthly samples in two sites along the stream, several groundwater wells and monthly precipitation. Chemical and isotopic tracers are used to discriminate the streamflow components and to evaluate their incidence in the nitrate concentration. The easiest conceptual model for gaining streams contemplates two main elements: direct runoff and groundwater (baseflow and pre-event water). The direct runoff has the lowest electrical conductivity and ¹⁸O_w variable content. The baseflow component is characterized by the highest electrical conductivity and isotope composition quite constant. Finally, pre-event water has an intermediate electrical conductivity and isotopic content close to the rainfall-weighted average composition. The nitrate concentration obtained was in general related to the different stream stages and was a useful indicator to evaluate the fertilization in agricultural zones.     

Extra-tropical atmospheric response to ENSO in the CMIP5 models

The seasonal mean extra-tropical atmospheric response to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is assessed in the historical and pre-industrial control CMIP5 simulations. This analysis considers two types of El Niño events, characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in either the central equatorial Pacific (CP) or eastern equatorial Pacific (EP), as well as EP and CP La Niña events, characterized by negative SST anomalies in the same two regions. Seasonal mean geopotential height anomalies in key regions typify the magnitude and structure of the disruption of the Walker circulation cell in the tropical Pacific, upper tropospheric ENSO teleconnections and the polar stratospheric response. In the CMIP5 ensembles, the magnitude of the Walker cell disruption is correlated with the strength of the mid-latitude responses in the upper troposphere i.e., the North Pacific and South Pacific lows strengthen during El Niño events. The simulated responses to El Niño and La Niña have opposite sign. The seasonal mean extra-tropical, upper tropospheric responses to EP and CP events are indistinguishable. The ENSO responses in the MERRA reanalysis lie within the model scatter of the historical simulations. Similar responses are simulated in the pre-industrial and historical CMIP5 simulations. Overall, there is a weak correlation between the strength of the tropical response to ENSO and the strength of the polar stratospheric response. ENSO-related polar stratospheric variability is best simulated in the “high-top” subset of models with a well-resolved stratosphere.     

An Advanced Puff Model Based On A Mixed Eulerian/Lagrangian Approach For Turbulent Dispersion In The Convective Boundary Layer

An advanced model aimed at describing the problem of dispersion in theconvective boundary layer is proposed. The pollutant particles are groupedin clusters and modelled as Gaussian puffs. The expansion of each puff ismodelled according to the concept of relative dispersion and expressed interms of the spectral properties of the energy containing eddies of the turbulent field. The centre of mass of each puff is moved along a stochastic trajectory, obtained using a Lagrangian stochastic model and filtering the velocity with a recursive Kalman filter. At any instant, a filtering procedure, depending both on travel time and on puff size, acts to select spectral components involved in the expansion and in the meandering of the puff. Such an approach requires only a moderate number of puff releases, so that the proposed model is faster to run than a standard Lagrangian model. On the other hand, unlike the traditional puff model, it allows us to simulate both expansion and meandering of the puff. Therefore, it is well suited to simulate dispersion when the turbulent structures are larger thanthe plume dimensions, as for example in convective conditions. Being based onspectral formulations in both Eulerian and Lagrangian parts, the model is consistent in all the turbulent parameterizations utilised. Comparisons with a standard Lagrangian particle model as well as with a classical convective experimental dataset show good performance of the proposed model.     

A Numerical Study of Wind-Turbine Wakes for Three Atmospheric Stability Conditions

The effects of atmospheric stability on wind-turbine wakes are studied via large-eddy simulations. Three stability conditions are considered: stable, neutral, and unstable, with the same geostrophic wind speed aloft and the same Coriolis frequency. Both a single 5-MW turbine and a wind farm of five turbines are studied. The single-turbine wake is strongly correlated with stability, in terms of velocity deficit, turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) and temperature distribution. Because of the Coriolis effect, the wake shape deviates from a Gaussian distribution. For the wind-farm simulations, the separation of the core region and outer region is clear for the stable and neutral cases, but less distinct for the unstable case. The unstable case exhibits strong horizontal variations in wind speed. Local accelerations such as related to aisle jets are also observed, whose features depend on stability. The added TKE in the wind farm increases with stability. The highest power extraction and lowest power deficit are observed for the unstable case.     

Vibrios in association with sedimentary crustaceans in three beaches of the northern Adriatic Sea (Italy)

In the marine environment, vibrios adhere to a number of substrates including chitin-rich organisms such as crustaceans. Their wide diffusion in coastal waters and pathogenic potential require knowledge of the lifestyle and environmental reservoirs of these bacteria. To test the presence of culturable vibrios in coastal areas and their association with benthic crustaceans, vibrios were isolated from water, sediments and crustaceans (copepods and anphipods) at three stations placed in front of heavily used tourist beaches of the Adriatic Sea. We observed significant correlations between vibrios and temperature. Benthic and planktonic copepods harboured vibrios in summer, while benthic amphipods harboured these bacteria in spring and autumn. Vibrio alginolyticus and Vibrio parahaemolyticus strains gave positive results using primers for Vibrio cholerae toxR and toxS. Sedimentary crustaceans may extend Vibrio persistence in seawater and may represent an additional aquatic reservoir of these bacteria.     

Lateglacial and Holocene palaeoenvironments at Sierra La Madera,northwestern Mexico: Sharp signals of Younger Dryas and North American monsoon

During the last glacial termination, the climate system experienced intense global variations whose causes and impacts are not fully defined, particularly for low latitudes. The northwestern Mexico Sky Islands present a climate-sensitive ideal setting to record palaeoecological and palaeoclimatic changes due to their physiographic complexity and location in the ecotone between temperate and tropical ecosystems. High-resolution pollen analysis and a detailed sedimentological study were conducted at the Ciénega Tonibabi tropical thorn scrub site. The 15 540–0 cal a bp nearly continuous record shows that the North Atlantic Ocean did have a cold and humid climatic influence during the glacial stages of the end of the Pleistocene, including a sharp pulse during the Younger Dryas. However, a shift to the Pacific Ocean influence occurred during the Holocene, which led to the development of the El Niño conditions prevailing today. Colder and warmer phases follow one another with higher or lower winter precipitation, including a sharp Bølling–Allerød and development and intensification of the North American monsoon. They are reflected in hydrological changes as well as in the advances, retreats and intermingling of coniferous forests and tropical thorn scrub.