Early warning system for rainfall-triggered landslides based on real-time probabilistic hazard assessment

Natural Hazards - A methodology to define rainfall-landslide thresholds, using a probabilistic model in which the accumulated rainfall at any time is treated as a random variable, is proposed. The...     

Metal speciation and environmental impact on sandy beaches due to El Salvador copper mine, Chile

Several coastal rocky shores in northern Chile have been affected by the discharges of copper mine tailings. The present study aims to analyze the chemical speciation of heavy metals in relation to the diversity of sessile species in the rocky intertidal benthic community on the northern Chilean coast, which is influenced by the presence of copper mine tailings. In particular, the chemical forms of Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn in beach sediment samples collected in the area influenced by El Salvador mine tailings were studied using a sequential chemical extraction method. In general, all the elements present a maximum concentration in the area near the actual discharge point (Caleta Palito). With regard to Cu and Mn, the concentrations range between 7.2-985 and 746-22,739 microg/g respectively, being lower than background levels only in the control site of Caleta Zenteno. Moreover, the correlation coefficients highlight that Fe, Mn and Ni correlate significantly and positively in the studied area, showing a possible common, natural origin, whilst Cu shows a negative correlation with Fe, Mn and Ni. It could be possible that Cu has an anthropogenic origin, coming from mining activity in the area. Cd, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn are mostly associated with the residual phase, whilst Cu presents a different speciation pattern, as resulted from selective extractions. In fact, Cu is highly associated with organic and exchangeable phases in contaminated localities, whilst it is mainly bound to the residual phase in control sites. Moreover, our results, compared to local biological diversity, showed that those sites characterized by the highest metal concentrations in bioavailable phase had the lowest biodiversity.     

Effect of sub-indicator weighting schemes on the spatial dependence of multidimensional phenomena

Journal of Geographical Systems - The weighting of sub-indicators is widely debated in the composite indicator literature. However, these weighting schemes’ effects on the composite...     

“Normal” to adakite-like arc magmatism associated with the El Abra porphyry copper deposit,Central Andes,Northern Chile

International Journal of Earth Sciences - The El Abra porphyry copper deposit belongs to the Late Eocene—Early Oligocene metallogenic belt of northern Chile, which host several world-class...     

An example of fingerprint detection of greenhouse climate change

As an example of the technique of fingerprint detection of greenhouse climate change, a multivariate signal or fingerprint of the enhanced greenhouse effect is defined using the zonal mean atmospheric temperature change as a function of height and latitude between equilibrium climate model simulations with control and doubled CO₂ concentrations. This signal is compared with observed atmospheric temperature variations over the period 1963 to 1988 from radiosonde-based global analyses. There is a significant increase of this greenhouse signal in the observational data over this period.These results must be treated with caution. Upper air data are available for a short period only, possibly too short to be able to resolve any real greenhouse climate change. The greenhouse fingerprint used in this study may not be unique to the enhanced greenhouse effect and may be due to other forcing mechanisms. However, it is shown that the patterns of atmospheric temperature change associated with uniform global increases of sea surface temperature, with El NinoSouthern Oscillation events and with decreases of stratospheric ozone concentrations individually are different from the greenhouse fingerprint used here.     

华北北部中生代岩墙群

岩墙群是深源岩浆浅侵位的产物，它可提供有关壳-幔演化的重要信息。通过华北北部大同早中生代碳酸岩-煌斑岩岩墙群、赤峰早中生代闪长玢岩岩墙群、林西中生代辉绿岩岩墙群、京北晚中生代双峰式岩墙群的对比研究，揭示了华北中生代存在的两次底侵作用及其相关的伸展作用。华北早、晚中生代岩墙群与晋北地区元古代岩墙群的初步对比，从一个侧面反映了华北壳幔的演变。     

Spatial characterisation of the Benguela ecosystem for ecosystem-based management

The three countries of the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem (BCLME), namely Angola, Namibia and South Africa, have committed to implementing ecosystem-based management (EBM) including an ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF) in the region, to put in practice the principles of sustainable development in ocean-related matters. There is also recognition of the need for marine spatial planning (MSP) as a process for informing EBM with regard to the allocation and siting of ocean uses so that ecosystem health is ensured and trade-offs between ecosystem services are appropriately dealt with. Marine spatial planning is both an integrated and an area-based process, and this paper produces a spatial characterisation of the BCLME for achieving a common basis for MSP in the region, focusing on the oceanography, biology and fisheries. Recognising spatial variation in physical driving forces, primary and secondary production, trophic structures and species richness, four different subsystems are characterised: (1) north of the Angola–Benguela Front, (2) from the Angola–Benguela Front to Lüderitz, (3) from Lüderitz to Cape Agulhas, and (4) from Cape Agulhas to Port Alfred on the south-east coast of South Africa. Research and monitoring requirements of relevance for MSP and EBM in the region are identified, focusing on understanding variability and change, including with regard to the boundary areas identified for the system. To this end, 14 cross-shelf monitoring transects are proposed (including seven that are already being monitored) to estimate fluxes of biota, energy and materials within and between the subsystems. The usefulness of models for understanding ecosystem variability and changes is recognised and the need for fine-scale resolution of both sampling and modelling for adequate MSP as input to EBM for the often-conflicting interests of conserving biodiversity, and managing fisheries, recreation, offshore oil and gas exploration and exploitation, offshore mining and shipping routes, is emphasised.     

Modelling non-stationary water ages in a tropical rainforest: A preliminary spatially distributed assessment

Pristine tropical forests play a critical role in regional and global climate systems. For a better understanding of the eco-hydrology of tropical “evergreen” vegetation, it is essential to know the partitioning of water into transpiration and evaporation, runoff and associated water ages. For this purpose, we evaluated how topography and vegetation influence water flux and age dynamics at high temporal (hourly) and spatial (10 m) resolution using the Spatially Distributed Tracer-Aided Rainfall-Runoff model for the tropics (STARRtropics). The model was applied in a tropical rainforest catchment (3.2 km²) where data were collected biweekly to monthly and during intensive monitoring campaigns from January 2013 to July 2018. The STARRtropics model was further developed, incorporating an isotope mass balance for evapotranspiration partitioning into transpiration and evaporation. Results exhibited a rapid streamflow response to rainfall inputs (water and isotopes) with limited mixing and a largely time-invariant baseflow isotope composition. Simulated soil water storage showed a transient response to rainfall inputs with a seasonal component directly resembling the streamflow dynamics which was independently evaluated using soil water content measurements. High transpiration fluxes (max 7 mm/day) were linked to lower slope gradients, deeper soils and greater leaf area index. Overall water partitioning resulted in 65% of the actual evapotranspiration being driven by vegetation with high transpiration rates over the drier months compared to the wet season. Time scales of water age were highly variable, ranging from hours to a few years. Stream water ages were conceptualized as a mixture of younger soil water and slightly older, deeper soil water and shallow groundwater with a maximum age of roughly 2 years during drought conditions (722 days). The simulated soil water ages ranged from hours to 162 days and for shallow groundwater up to 1,200 days. Despite the model assumptions, experimental challenges and data limitation, this preliminary spatially distributed model study enhances knowledge about the water ages and overall young water dominance in a tropical rainforest with little influence of deeper and older groundwater.     

End member and Bayesian mixing models consistently indicate near-surface flowpath dominance in a pristine humid tropical rainforest

The impacts of forest conversion on runoff generation in the tropics have received much interest, but scientific progress is still hampered by challenging fieldwork conditions and limited knowledge about runoff mechanisms. Here, we assessed the runoff generation, flow paths and water source dynamics of a pristine rainforest catchment in Costa Rica using end member mixing analysis (EMMA) and a Bayesian mixing model (MixSIAR). Geochemical tracer data collected over a 4-week field campaign were combined with tritium data used to assess potential deeper groundwater flow pathways to the perennial stream. The streamflow composition was best captured using three end-members, namely throughfall, shallow (5–15 cm) and deeper (15–50 cm) soil water. We estimated the end-member contributions to the main stream and two tributaries using the two mixing approaches and found good agreement between results obtained from EMMA and MixSIAR. The system was overwhelmingly dominated by near-surface sources, with little evidence for deeper and older groundwater as tritium-derived baseflow mean transit time was between 2.0 and 4.4 years. The shallow soil flow pathway dominated streamflow contributions in the main stream (median 39% and 49% based on EMMA and MixSIAR, respectively), followed by the deeper soil (32% and 31%) and throughfall (25% and 19%). The two tributaries had even greater shallow soil water contributions relative to the main stream (83% and 74% for tributary A and 42% and 63% for tributary B). Tributary B had no detectable deep soil water contribution, reflecting the morphology of the hillslope (steeper slopes, shallower soils and lower vegetation density compared to hillslope A). Despite the short sampling campaign and associated uncertainties, this study allowed to thoroughly assess runoff generation mechanisms in a humid tropical catchment. Our results also provide a first comparison of two increasingly used mixing models and suggest that EMMA and MixSIAR yield comparable estimates of water source partitioning in this tropical, volcanic rainforest environment.