An approximate petroleum hydrocarbon budget for the Hudson Raritan estuary—New York

The quantities of petroleum hydrocarbons being discharged to the Hudson Raritan estuary have been estimated, in tonnes day^?1, from data in the literature as: sewage discharges (35), oil refinery discharges (1.3), non-oil refinery industrial discharges (17), oil spills (1.5), atmospheric deposition (0.002), urban and rural run-off (37). Losses have been estimated in a somewhat similar manner as: permanent deposition in sediments (11), dredging (5.8), advection (6.5), bed sedimentary transport (0.007), decomposition in water and sediments (42), evaporation (0.4), movement of surface slicks (0.4). The results are approximate but suggest that petroleum hydrocarbons originate principally from sewage as well as urban and rural run-off and only moderate proportions are discharged through the estuary mouth. However, this discharge combined with that due to dredging spoil disposal operations results in a considerable quantity of petroleum hydrocarbon entering the adjacent New York Bight.     

Kerosene-like tainting in Australian mullet

A preliminary report on the chemical composition of substances causing a kerosene-like taint in mullet. These substances are kerosene-like in composition and may originate from similar substances isolated from aquatic areas.     

Long-term declines in two apex predators,bull sharks (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Carcharhinus leucas</Emphasis>) and alligator gar (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Atractosteus spatula</Emphasis>), in Lake Pontchartrain,an oligohaline estuary in southeastern Louisiana

We analyzed historic and current fishery independent data to determine if the abundance of two apex predators, bull sharks (Carcharhinus leucas) and alligator gar (Atractosteus spatula), in Lake Pontchartrain had changed significantly over the last half century. Lake Pontchartrain is an environmentally degraded oligohaline estuary in southeastern Louisiana that has experienced considerable changes in fish assemblage composition over this interval. Using gillnet, beach seine, and trawl data collected during three time periods (1953–1955, 1977–1978, and 1996–2005), we analyzed trends in abundance forC. leucas andA. spatula using generalized linear models with a negative binomial error structure and a log link. Lake Pontchartrain data were divided into four spatial locations (northwest, northeast, southwest, southeast) since each region represents a unique combination of anthropogenic and natural influences that could affect catches. For each species and gear type, we produced log-likelihood profiles for the instantaneous rate of change in relative abundance through time. Raw catches were generally lower for both species in the later surveys.C. leucas were not captured in beach seines since the 1950s andA. spatula were rarely captured in trawls or seines since the 1970s. Likelihood profiles of changes in abundance forC. leucas andA. spatula showed very large declines in both species since 1953.C. leucas declined by 98.6% (95% CI: 73.4–99.9%) in gillnets and became functionally extirpated in beach seines with a decline of 99.9% (95% CI: 23–99.9%). Among all gears,C. leucas declined by the same rate as in gillnets. The decline inA. spatula was also large with a decrease of 98.6% (95% CI: 73.4–99.9%) in beach seines and a decline of 99.2% (95% CI: 54.8–99.9%) in trawls since 1953. Catches ofA. spatula in gillnets did not show a significant change over the study period. The continued decline of these two apex predators could seriously affect efforts to restore this degraded estuarine ecosystem.     

A theoretical model for gas adsorption-induced coal swelling

Swelling and shrinkage (volumetric change) of coal during adsorption and desorption of gas is a well-known phenomenon. For coalbed methane recovery and carbon sequestration in deep, unminable coal beds, adsorption-induced coal volumetric change may cause significant reservoir permeability change. In this work, a theoretical model is derived to describe adsorption-induced coal swelling at adsorption and strain equilibrium. This model applies an energy balance approach, which assumes that the surface energy change caused by adsorption is equal to the elastic energy change of the coal solid. The elastic modulus of the coal, gas adsorption isotherm, and other measurable parameters, including coal density and porosity, are required in this model. Results from the model agree well with experimental observations of swelling. It is shown that the model is able to describe the differences in swelling behaviour with respect to gas species and at very high gas pressures, where the coal swelling ratio reaches a maximum then decreases. Furthermore, this model can be used to describe mixed-gas adsorption induced-coal swelling, and can thus be applied to CO₂-enhanced coalbed methane recovery.     

Devensian glacial events in Buchan (NE Scotland): A progress report on new OSL dates and their implications

Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of a series of glaciofluvial/glaciodeltaic sediments in central Buchan and Aberdeen has recently been undertaken. The aims of this project are to test the chronological model proposed by the most recent regional review and the suggestion that parts of Buchan may have remained ice-free during the last glacial maximum (late marine isotope stage (MIS) 3 and MIS 2 29–15 ka). The preliminary results indicate that during the Devensian (ca. 116–12 ka), extensive areas of Buchan may have been glaciated earlier than previously believed (possibly during MIS 4, 72–60 ka), but parts of the region show no depositional evidence of later glaciation. Some waterlain sediments from the Ugie Valley have yielded OSL ages indicating deposition during MIS 5d to MIS 5a (116–72 ka). We discuss whether the absence of overlying glaciogenic sediments at these locations raises questions about the reliability of the OSL ages or about existing models of the Devensian glaciation of Buchan.     

Islands, idylls and the detours of development

A passing parade of paradigms imported from distant places has failed to bring development to small islands and island states in the Pacific. Insularity might once have suggested purity, but more extended resource frontiers and other external pressures have challenged illusory benefits of 'isolation'. Failures of development, seemingly crystallized in the 'arc of instability', have brought new and more direct external intervention as regional geopolitics have been recast, despite the failure of earlier 'foreign flowers'. These have been paralleled by a new outward urge and simultaneous emergence of alternative indigenous responses at various scales, mostly encapsulated within indigenous 'cultural turns' and 'economic turns'. Older versions of syncretism and hybridity have taken more cultural and economic forms, in various contexts of disengagement and restructuring, which offer positive development outcomes and suggest the need for new, more culturally relevant dimensions and directions for development practice and theory.     

Errors and uncertainty in physically-based rainfall-runoff modelling of catchment change effects

The error in physically-based rainfall-runoff modelling is broken into components, and these components are assigned to three groups: (1) model structure error, associated with the model’s equations; (2) parameter error, associated with the parameter values used in the equations; and (3) run time error, associated with rainfall and other forcing data. The error components all contribute to “integrated” errors, such as the difference between simulated and observed runoff, but their individual contributions cannot usually be isolated because the modelling process is complex and there is a lack of knowledge about the catchment and its hydrological responses. A simple model of the Slapton Wood Catchment is developed within a theoretical framework in which the catchment and its responses are assumed to be known perfectly. This makes it possible to analyse the contributions of the error components when predicting the effects of a physical change in the catchment. The standard approach to predicting change effects involves: (1) running “unchanged” simulations using current parameter sets; (2) making adjustments to the sets to allow for physical change; and (3) running “changed” simulations. Calibration or uncertainty-handling methods such as GLUE are used to obtain the current sets based on forcing and runoff data for a calibration period, by minimising or creating statistical bounds for the “integrated” errors in simulations of runoff. It is shown that current parameter sets derived in this fashion are unreliable for predicting change effects, because of model structure error and its interaction with parameter error, so caution is needed if the standard approach is to be used when making management decisions about change in catchments.     

The scientific legacy of Harold Edwin Hurst (1880–1978)

ABSTRACT

Emanating from his remarkable characterization of long-term variability in geophysical records in the early 1950s, Hurst’s scientific legacy to hydrology and other disciplines is explored. A statistical explanation of the so-called “Hurst Phenomenon” did not emerge until 1968 when Mandelbrot and co-authors proposed fractional Gaussian noise based on the hypothesis of infinite memory. A vibrant hydrological literature ensued where alternative modelling representations were explored and debated, e.g. ARMA models, the Broken Line model, shifting mean models with no memory, FARIMA models, and Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics, acknowledging a link with the work of Kolmogorov in 1940. The diffusion of Hurst’s work beyond hydrology is summarized by discipline and citations, showing that he arguably has the largest scientific footprint of any hydrologist in the last century. Its particular relevance to the modelling of long-term climatic variability in the era of climate change is discussed. Links to various long-term modes of variability in the climate system, driven by fluctuations in sea surface temperatures and ocean dynamics, are explored. Several issues related to the Hurst Phenomenon in hydrology remain as a challenge for future research.

Editor M. Acreman; Associate editor A. Carsteanu     

Chlorohydrocarbon pesticides in the Australian marine environment after banning in the period from the 1970s to 1980s

The chlorohydrocarbon pesticides (CHPs) (principally DDT, dieldrin, hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) including lindane, chlordane, heptachlor and heptachlorepoxide, aldrin and hexachlorobenzene (HCB)) were used extensively in Australia during the 1960s and 1970s. These were progressively banned from the 1970s with DDT being totally banned in 1987. The levels in marine waters are believed to have progressively declined as indicated by water in the Brisbane River, which consistently fell from maximum concentrations of about 1.7 μg/l in 1972–1973 to not detectable in 1986–1987. In some urban areas sediment concentrations, up to 1700 μg/kg dry weight, were recorded in the early 1990s which may reflect the reworking and exposure of older more contaminated material. Fish exhibited consistent occurrence of DDT, HCH, dieldrin and HCB through the 1970s to the 1990s. Maximum concentrations of DDT and dieldrin occurred generally in the 1970s at 40.3 and 8.8 μg/g wet weight, and minimums in the 1990s at 2.4 and 0.041 μg/g wet weight respectively. Inputs of dialdrin from sewage and DDT from the broad environment, reflected by the calculated daily human uptake in the diet, were shown to decline with half-lives of 1.1–1.5 and about 3 years respectively. This evidence suggests that banning of the CHPs has greatly reduced the inputs into the marine environment with consequent reductions in concentrations in biota but there is the occasional occurrence of relatively high concentrations.