Squeezing information from regional climate change projections - results from a synthesis of CMIP5 results for south-east Queensland, Australia

We present a synthesis of CMIP5 model results for projected rainfall changes for a single region (south-east Queensland, Australia) and note that, as was evident in CMIP3 results, the multi-model mean projected changes for the late 21st century are not statistically significant for any season nor annually. Taking account of the number of statistically significant changes to mean rainfall, we find some evidence favouring a decrease in both spring and annual rainfall, but this is not compelling. In almost all cases the most frequent result is for no significant change. However, if we consider the number of results where there is a statistically significant change in the distributions of rainfall amounts, there appears to be slightly more information available for risk assessment studies. These numbers suggest an increase in the frequency of both wet and dry events during summer and spring, and a shift towards more frequent dry events during winter. There is no evidence for any significant changes to the distributions for either autumn or annually. The findings suggest that, in one respect, multi-model rainfall projections may contain more information than is evident from syntheses which focus on changes to the means and that, for some regions where changes in the frequency of wet and dry seasons/years have known impacts, the model projections may be more valuable than previously thought.     

The Petrography and composition of phlogopite micas from the Blue Ball Kimberlite,Arkansas: A record of chemical evolution during crystallization

Summary The Blue Ball kimberlite, Scott County, Arkansas, contains between 23 and 36 modal % phlogopite. Phlogopite is present as phenocrysts, a groundmass phase, and as coronas around serpentinized olivine phenocrysts. Intermediate and reverse pleochroism, seen in phenocryst cores and the majority of groundmass phlogopites, can be correlated with the mineral chemistry. Reverse pleochroism, exhibited by phenocryst rims, rare groundmass grains, and phlogopites forming coronas around olivine, is generally accompanied by an increase in total Fe (as FeO) and a decrease in Al₂ O₃. Analyses of those phlogopites whoch exhibit reverse pleochroism have high cation totals, indicative of the presence of Fe³⁺. We suggest that these pleochroic schemes are a function of Fe³⁺ in the tetrahedral site, which is expressed in terms of T = [8 - (Si + Al)]. All Blue Ball phlogopites have positive values for T, but reverse pleochroism is found only when T > 0.6, indicative of increased Fe³⁺ in the residual magma. It is concluded that phlogopite was on the liquidus throughout practically all of the kimberlite crystallization, because of the wide range in phlogopite compositions and the general decrease in Ba from micas exhibiting intermediate to reverse pleochroism. Variations of MG #, Ti, Ba, Si, and Al within the phlogopites have been used to trace the crystallization of other phases present in the kimberlite, namely olivine and spinel (chromite and titanomagnetite). Olivine was an early crystallizing phase, causing a decrease in MG # and Si, and an increase in Ti and Al in the phlogopites, a reflection of residual magma composition. Minor chromite also crystallized at this time, but was not of sufficient quantity to override the effect of olivine fractionation on the residual magma. Widespread Titano-magnetite crystallization occurred as olivine fractionation ceased, causing an increase in MG # and Si, and a decrease in Ti and Al. By examining these chemical variations with T, the evolution of the Blue Ball kimberlite has been determined.

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Petrographie und zusammensetzung phlogopitischer Glimmer aus dem Blue Ball Kimberlit, Arkansas: chemische evolution während der kristallisation

Zusammenfassung Der Blue Ball Kimberlit, Scott County, Arkansas, enthält zwischen 23 und 36% Phlogopit (modal). Dieser kommt in idiomorphen Kristallen, als Grundmasse, und als Coronas um serpentinisierte Olivinkristalle vor. Verschiedene Arten von Pleochroismus, die man in den Kernen von Kristallen und in der Mehrzahl der Phlogopite in der Grundmasse erkennen kann, lassen sich mit der Mineralehemie korrelieren. Reverser Pleochroismus ist an den Rändern von Kristallen, selten in Grundkörnern der Grundmasse, und in Phlogopiten die Coronas in Olivin bilden, zu beobachten. Diese Erscheinung wird im allgemeinen von einer Zunahme des Gesamt-Eisens (als FeO) und einer Abnahme der Al₂ O₃-Gehalte begleitet. Analysen jener Phlogopite, die reversen Pleochroismus zeigen, haben hohe Gesamtwerte an Kationen und dies weist auf die Anwesenheit von Fe³⁺ hin. Wir interpretieren diesen Pleochroismus als eine Funktion des Fe³⁺ in der Tetraeder-Position, die sich als T = 8 - (Si + Al) ausdrücken läßt. Alle Phlogopite von Blue Ball haben positive Werte für T, aber reverser Pleochroismus tritt nur dort auf, wo T > 0.6, was widerum auf eine Zunahme von Fe³⁺ im residualen Magma hinweist. Phlogopit war praktisch während der gesamten Kristallisation des Kimberlits am Liquidus, und diese Annahme wird auch durch das weite Feld der PhlogopitZusammensetzungen und durch die allgemeine Abahme der Ba-Gehalte in Glimmern mit intermediärem bis reversem Pleochroismus unterstützt. Variationen von MG #, Ti, Ba, Si und Al in den Phlogopiten wurden benutzt, um die Kristallisation von Olivin und Spinellen (Chromit und Titanomagnetit) zu verfolgen. Olivin hat früh kristallisiert und führte zu einer Abnahme von MG# und Si und einer Zunahme von Ti und Al in den Phlogopiten. Auch kleinere Mengen von Chromit kristallisierten zu dieser Zeit, dies war jedoch nicht ausreichend, um den Effekt der Olivin-Fraktionierung auf die Restschmelze aufzuheben. Titanomagnetit-Kristallisation setzte mit aufhörender Olivinfraktionierung ein und führte zu einer Zunahme von Mg und Si und einer Abnahme von Ti und Al. Eine Überprüfung der chemischen Variationen und Vergleich mit T Werten tragen wesentlich zur Kenntnis der Evolution des Blue Ball Kimberlites bei.

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With 8 Figures     

Infrared surveillance of crater lakes using satellite data

Under optimum circumstances, thermal infrared data recorded from satellites can measure water surface temperatures to accuracies of a few tenths of a degree Celsius. Such techniques are applied here to evaluate volcanic crater lake temperatures. At present, band 6 of the Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) is the most pertinent sensor in this respect, although its nominal 120 × 120 m “footprint” only permits useful measurements of circular lakes exceeding 340 m in diameter. In addition, the radiative properties of the atmosphere between sensor and target at the instant of observation should be well-characterised in order to make confident measurements of surface temperatures with single-band infrared data.An analysis is presented of three TM band-6 images of the crater lake at Poás volcano, Costa Rica, recorded on February 6, 1986, March 13, 1987, and May 10, 1988. In the February 1986 scene, the band-6-derived water surface temperature is 36°C which is 3°C less than a field measurement made in the same month. Since the satellite measurement was integrated over some 14,400 m² of the lake surface, while the field measurement was obtained at a single point below the surface, the former may be more representative of surface heat losses. Subsequent TM data reveal an increasing discrepancy between contemporaneous field and satellite observations, probably because the lake diameter had decreased to 250 m by March 1987, and to less than 200 m by mid-1988, greatly reducing the likelihood of obtaining a pure “lake” pixel.The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) which is earmarked for orbit on the first of NASA's Earth Observing System satellite platforms later this decade has five discrete spectral bands in the thermal infrared region and will produce data composed of 90 × 90 m pixels. These specifications could enable the determination of water surface temperatures of > 250 m diameter crater lakes by algorithms that implicitly account for atmospheric effects.     

服务全球生物多样性和食物安全的可再生氮利用优先选择（英文）

The continuing use of petrochemicals in mineral nitrogen(N) production may be affected by supply or cost issues and climate agreements.Without mineral N,a larger area of cropland is required to produce the same amount of food,impacting biodiversity.Alternative N sources include solar and wind to power the Haber-Bosch process,and the organic options such as green manures,marine algae and aquatic azolla.Solar power was the most land-efficient renewable source of N,with using a tenth as much land as wind energy,and at least 100 th as much land as organic sources of N.In this paper,we developed a decision tree to locate these different sources of N at a global scale,or the first time taking into account their spatial footprint and the impact on terrestrial biodiversity while avoiding impact on albedo and cropland,based on global resource and impact datasets.This produced relatively few areas suitable for solar power in the western Americas,central southern Africa,eastern Asia and southern Australia,with areas most suited to wind at more extreme latitudes.Only about 2% of existing solar power stations are in very suitable locations.In regions such as coastal north Africa and central Asia where solar power is less accessible due to lack of farm income,green manures could be used,however,due to their very large spatial footprint only a small area of low productivity and low biodiversity was suitable for this option.Europe in particular faces challenges because it has access to a relatively small area which is suitable for solar or wind power.If we are to make informed decisions about the sourcing of alternative N supplies in the future,and our energy supply more generally,a decision-making mechanism is needed to take global considerations into account in regional land-use planning.     

Fault Seal Analysis in an Onshore Unconventional Gas Target,North Perth Basin

During the 1980s, hydrocarbons were logged in aquifers during drilling of conventional gas wells in the Woodada gasfield. The gasfield is located in the North Perth Basin in Western Australia. Using Fault Seal Analysis Technology, our goal was to test the hypothesis that faults in the Kockatea Shale that are currently being reactivated may be leak prone. Wells proximal to faults with a fracture stability of greater than 5 MPa logged only methane. Wells proximal to faults with a fracture stability ≤5 MPa logged both methane and condensate in aquifers confirming that hydrocarbon leakage is correlated with critically stressed faults. This assessment assumes that fault rocks in the Kockatea Shale, which is a regional source rock and seal, comprise uncemented phyllosilicate rock. For the normal stress case, faults oriented west-north-west with moderate dip have the lowest integrity. For the strike slip stress case, faults oriented north-west and west-south-west, with moderate to steep dip have the lowest integrity. If the Kockatea Shale fault rock is assumed to be a cemented phyllosilicate, then the fracture stability increases to 14 MPa for both the normal and strike slip case. In this case, Jurassic-Permian fault intersections may be contributing to hydrocarbon leakage, however, this would require numerical modeling for confirmation. Based on leak off tests, the increase in pressure required to hydraulically fracture the formation varies between 10.7 and 13.8 MPa. The treatment pressures used during hydraulic fracturing may potentially exacerbate leakage in areas such as the Woodada gasfield.     

Extended search for correlation between solar mean magnetic field Bison data and coronal mass ejections

The Birmingham Solar-Oscillations Network (BiSON) has acquired high-precision solar mean magnetic field (SMMF) data on a 40-s cadence for a decade. We present attempts to compare such data from recent years with the occurrence of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as recorded by LASCO, using correlation techniques applied to measurements from different BiSON instruments to maximise the sensitivity to CME-related SMMF responses. SMMF measurements were recorded at the time of occurrence of several hundred CMEs. No CME event shows a convincing response in our SMMF data at short periods setting a threshold amplitude of 12 mG. By averaging data sets we are able to set lower thresholds, which depend somewhat on the distribution of response strengths. A brief summary of the very first results of this study is also given in Chaplin et al.     

Water quality and Cryptosporidium distribution in an upland water supply catchment,Cumbria, UK

Four micro‐catchment (MC) areas were identified to represent the main terrain types of a remote, sparsely populated upland valley catchment of 18 km² in Cumbria, UK. These were improved land with good grazing (IB), steeply sloping land with rough grazing (SG), wet moorland with sparse grazing (WM) and enclosed woodland that excluded livestock and deer (EW). Each MC contained the origin of a small stream that flowed into Swindale Beck, the river draining the valley. The water quality during the 14‐month study, as judged by chemical and physical parameters, was excellent, but it could not be regarded as pristine because of the frequent presence of Cryptosporidium oocysts arising from livestock and wild mammal faeces. Oocysts (0·2–5·6 l^?1) detected by genus‐specific immunofluorescent antibody were found in 32% of 188 water samples tested: ranking order EW 44%, IB 34%, Beck 30%, SG and WM 26%. Similarly, oocysts were identified in 9·5% of 1730 faecal samples. Small wild mammals (28%), calves (15·7%) and lambs (8·1%) were the dominant sources, whereas adult livestock (1·8%) and large wild mammals (4·8%) were less important. Autumn showed the highest occurrence of oocysts for both water and faecal samples. No hydrological controls were found to have a significant impact on the occurrence or concentration of oocysts in the main river or in the MCs, suggesting that their presence is controlled by seasonal changes in pathogen prevalence in the animal reservoir. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.