From back-analysis to run-out prediction: a case study in the Western Italian Alps

Rock avalanches are complex phenomena that occur with a low frequency but which have a high destructive potential. As a consequence, the people who are responsible for the management of a territory are more and more interested in predicting the possible evolutions of well-known potential events. Tackling the above problems from a quantitative point of view, the RASH3D code, based on continuum mechanics concepts, has been here used to predict the evolution of a potential rock avalanche in the Western Italian Alps. A calibration-based approach, in which rheological parameters are constrained by systematic adjustment during trial-and-error back-analysis of past events similar to the landslide under investigation, is proposed to set rheological parameter values to be used for prediction purposes. The back-analysis of a 2?10⁶ m³ rock avalanche located in the Divedro Valley, close to the area of the potential event, has then been analysed using both a frictional and a Voellmy rheology. The characteristics of the slope and the dynamics of the event have made the frictional rheology more suitable to come to the correct simulation of the historical case. The back-analysis results have contributed not only in the selection of the rheological parameter values but also in the choice of the type of rheological law to use in the carried out forward-analyses.     

Genesis of zeolites in the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff: geological, volcanological and mineralogical evidence

 The study proposes a model by which a thick succession of volcanic tuffs can be zeolitized by alteration of pyroclastic material in the presence of sufficient eruptive water and at temperatures close to water vapour condensation. In the case of phreatomagmatic products, the model simplifies interpretation of problematic deposits that exhibit pronounced vertical and lateral variation in lithification grade. A major feature of the model is that thick zeolitized tuffs can be formed during emplacement of pyroclastic products, in marked contrast to later alteration in an open hydrologic system. Geological, volcanological and mineralogical data for the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff, a widespread trachytic pyroclastic deposit outcropping around Campi Flegrei (Southern Italy), have been used to infer the physico-chemical conditions that determined mineral genesis. This tuff shows a reduction in lithification grade towards the base, top and with distance from the vent and very variable zeolitization within the lithified portion. We suggest that during initial emplacement the erupted products chilled against the ground, inhibiting zeolite crystallization. During rapid deposition of the thick, wet succession thermal insulation allowed the persistence of elevated temperatures for a time sufficient for enhancement of hydration-dissolution processes in the volcanic glass. The highly reactive alkali-trachytic glass quickly buffered the acid pH of the system, favouring phillipsite crystallization followed by chabazite nucleation. The variable zeolite content reflects fluctuating emplacement conditions (e.g. changes in water content and temperature). Cooling of the upper and relatively thin distal deposits inhibited the zeolitization process, thereby preserving the primary unlithified deposit. Received: 25 May 1999 / Accepted: 28 October 1999     

Modelling of ground motion in the vicinity of massive structures

A two-dimensional elastic Chebyshev spectral element method (SPEM) is used to model the seismic wavefield within a massive structure and in its vicinity. We consider 2-D models where a linear elastic structure, with quadrangular cross-section, resting on an elastic homogeneous half-space, is impinged upon by the waves generated by a surface impulse at some distance. The scattering of Rayleigh waves and the response of the structure are extensively analysed in a parametric way, varying size, mechanical parameters and shape of the load. Some of the models considered are representative of embankments and earth dams. The simulation shows that some models resonate, storing part of the incoming energy. With realistic parameters, the lowest resonance frequency is due to pure shear deformation and is controlled by the shear velocity and height of the load. Flexural modes are excited only at higher frequencies. The acceleration at the top of the structure may be five/seven times higher than at the base, depending on the mass of the structure. The gradual release of trapped energy produces a ground roll lasting several seconds after the wave front has passed. The ground-roll amplitude depends on the sturcture's mass and can be as large as 30% of the peak acceleration. Outside resonance conditions, the ground motion is almost unaffected by the presence of the artefact; the horizontal motion on top of it is nearly twice the motion at ground level. Similar results should be expected when the incident field is an upcoming shear wave. A qualitative discussion shows that the presence of anelastic attenuation in the embankment does not significantly alter the preceding conclusions, unless it is of very low values (e.g. Q < 15).The modelling results that we discuss indicate that the soil-structure interaction may substantially alter the ‘free-field’ ground motion. From a practical point of view, the main conclusions are: (1) careful analysis is necessary when interpreting seismic records collected in the vicinity of large artefacts; (2) seismic hazard at a site may depend on the presence of man-made structures such as embankments, dams, tall and massive buildings.     

1999年欧洲圣诞节风暴数值模拟分析

对1999年圣诞期间发生在欧洲中西部的圣诞节风暴进行了分析,认为4个主要的低气压系统中的第二个给法国北部带来了强风暴雨,巴黎的Orly机场阵风速度〉47m／s;第四个低压系统沿法国西海岸产生相似的恶劣天气,并在西班牙的北部海岸及地中海沿岸国家造成了毁灭性的破坏。在法国中部风暴最剧烈的时候,最大阵风〉41m／s;在法国和德国之间的区域,达55m／s。圣诞节风暴造成欧洲国家大约140人死亡,其他损失包括树木、街道和房屋被毁,电力系统和电话中断时间长达数天,受影响的人数大约为1000万,财产损失大约为80亿美元。由于风暴的极端强度和快速发展速度,欧洲大多数国家的数值预报中心没有对这次剧烈天气提供足够的预警。为此,利用中尺度数值预报系统（RAMS）模拟圣诞节风暴,并与ECMWF分析资料以及实况观测资料进行了对比分析。结果表明,RAMS模式能够准确模拟风暴的主要特性、低气压的演变和位置移动、发展的关键时间点、风暴演化期间的平均风场;模拟的平均风场和气象观测网的观测结果相一致;模拟的风暴移动时间和主要新闻媒体的报道相吻合;模式计算的一些特定地区平均风速的时间趋势显示,在阿尔卑斯山脉地区,无论是上风区还是下风区,风暴的时间都被准确地预测;模拟的第一次风暴最低气压值较实际值偏低。     

Deep tunnel fronts in cohesive soils under undrained conditions: a displacement-based approach for the design of fibreglass reinforcements

The fronts of tunnels excavated under particularly difficult ground conditions by employing conventional tunnelling methods are commonly supported: the stabilization is usually achieved either by improving the mechanical properties of the soil (injections, jet grouting, soil freezing, etc.) or by introducing linear inclusions. This last technique, consisting in the introduction of pipes (usually made of fibreglass reinforced polymers) in the front, is particularly popular since it is very simple to adapt the reinforcement geometry, length and number to the different conditions encountered during the excavation. The design of this reinforcement technique is nowadays based on very simplified approaches: on either empirical formula or the limit equilibrium method. In a previous paper, the authors numerically studied the mechanical response of unreinforced fronts in cohesive soils and defined a non-dimensional front characteristic curve. In this paper, the authors intend to take into consideration the role of reinforcements by following the same approach. A procedure allowing the definition of the reinforced non-dimensional front characteristic curve, once the reinforcement pattern is assigned, is introduced. The practical use of this curve is described.

     

Hierarchical simulation of aquifer heterogeneity: implications of different simulation settings on solute-transport modeling

The fine-scale heterogeneity of porous media affects the large-scale transport of solutes and contaminants in groundwater and it can be reproduced by means of several geostatistical simulation tools. However, including the available geological information in these tools is often cumbersome. A hierarchical simulation procedure based on a binary tree is proposed and tested on two real-world blocks of alluvial sediments, of a few cubic meters volume, that represent small-scale aquifer analogs. The procedure is implemented using the sequential indicator simulation, but it is so general that it can be adapted to various geostatistical simulation tools, improving their capability to incorporate geological information, i.e., the sedimentological and architectural characterization of heterogeneity. When compared with a standard sequential indicator approach on bi-dimensional simulations, in terms of proportions and connectivity indicators, the proposed procedure yields reliable results, closer to the reference observations. Different ensembles of three-dimensional simulations based on different hierarchical sequences are used to perform numerical experiments of conservative solute transport and to obtain ensembles of equivalent pore velocity and dispersion coefficient at the scale length of the blocks (meter). Their statistics are used to estimate the impact of the variability of the transport properties of the simulated blocks on contaminant transport modeled on bigger domains (hectometer). This is investigated with a one-dimensional transport modeling based on the Kolmogorov-Dmitriev theory of branching stochastic processes. Applying the proposed approach with diverse binary trees and different simulation settings provides a great flexibility, which is revealed by the differences in the breakthrough curves.     

Southern elephant seal trajectories, fronts and eddies in the Brazil/Malvinas Confluence

This study describes the association between transient, mesoscale hydrographic features along the axis of the Brazil–Malvinas Confluence, in the SW Atlantic, and the foraging behavior of 2–3-year-old (focal) juvenile southern elephant seals, Mirounga leonina, from Península Valdés, Argentina. Departing from the dominant pattern of foraging on predictable bathymetric fronts on the Patagonian shelf and slope, three females out of 12 satellite-tracked juveniles remained at the edge of young warm-core eddies and near the outer core of cold-core eddies, coinciding with the most productive areas of these temperature fronts. Seal trajectories along high-temperature gradients were always consistent with the speed and direction of surface currents inferred from the temperature distribution and confirmed by surface drifters. Movements of foraging seals were compared with those of surface drifters, coinciding in time and space and yielding independent and consistent data on regional water circulation parameters. The diving pattern recorded for one focal seal yielded shallower dives and a loose diel pattern in the eddy, and a marked diurnal cycle compatible with foraging on vertically migrating prey in the cold waters of the Malvinas Current. Pre-reproductive females that use the mesoscale fronts of the Argentine Basin as an alternative foraging area would benefit from lower competition with more experienced seals and with other top predators that reproduce along the coast of Patagonia.     

Assessment and compensation of inconsistent coupling conditions in point-receiver land seismic data

We introduce a method to detect and compensate for inconsistent coupling conditions that arise during onshore seismic data acquisitions. The reflected seismic signals, the surface waves, or the ambient-noise records can be used for the evaluation of the different coupling conditions of closely spaced geophones. We derive frequency-dependent correction operators using a parametric approach based upon a simple model of the interaction between geophone and soil. The redundancy of the measurements available permits verification of the assumptions made on the input signals in order to derive the method and to assess the validity of the model used. The method requires point-receiver data in which the signals recorded by the individual geophones are digitized. We have verified the accuracy of the method by applying it to multicomponent ambient-noise records acquired during a field experiment in which the coupling conditions were controlled and modified during different phases of the experiment. We also applied the method to field data, which were acquired without the coupling conditions being controlled, and found that only a few geophones showed an anomalous behaviour. It was also found that the length of the noise records routinely acquired during commercial surveys is too short to provide enough statistics for the application of our method.