Ground water flow analysis of a mid-Atlantic outer coastal plain watershed, Virginia, U.S.A

Models for ground water flow (MODFLOW) and particle tracking (MODPATH) were used to determine ground water flow patterns, principal ground water discharge and recharge zones, and estimates of ground water travel times in an unconfined ground water system of an outer coastal plain watershed on the Delmarva Peninsula, Virginia. By coupling recharge and discharge zones within the watershed, flowpath analysis can provide a method to locate and implement specific management strategies within a watershed to reduce ground water nitrogen loading to surface water. A monitoring well network was installed in Eyreville Creek watershed, a first-order creek, to determine hydraulic conductivities and spatial and temporal variations in hydraulic heads for use in model calibration. Ground water flow patterns indicated the convergence of flow along the four surface water features of the watershed; primary discharge areas were in the nontidal portions of the watershed. Ground water recharge zones corresponded to the surface water features with minimal development of a regional ground water system. Predicted ground water velocities varied between < 0.01 to 0.24 m/day, with elevated values associated with discharge areas and areas of convergence along surface water features. Some ground water residence times exceeded 100 years, although average residence times ranged between 16 and 21 years; approximately 95% of the ground water resource would reflect land use activities within the last 50 years.     

Water Circulation Off the Northeastern Coast of Sakhalin during the Passage of Three Types of Deep Cyclones over the Sea of Okhotsk

Based on the numerical simulation of water circulation in the Sea of Okhotsk in 1986 to 2015, the impact of deep cyclones on the circulation off the northeastern coast of Sakhalin is studied. The circulation in the Sea of Okhotsk is simulated with the COSMO-Ru-INMOM-CICE model configuration, where the COSMO-Ru and INMOM resolve explicitly the mesoscale atmosphere and ocean dynamics and the CICE resolves the ice cover evolution. The extreme atmospheric events associated with the intensive cyclone activity over the Sea of Okhotsk during the cold season are classified. It is found that high velocity is typical of the cyclones coming to the sea from Sakhalin, and wind speed on the periphery is higher for the cyclones coming to the Sea of Okhotsk from the south and southwest. The analysis of water circulation response off the northeastern coast of Sakhalin demonstrates that the meridional current velocity on the shelf increased by several times from the sea surface to the bottom for all types of cyclones. On the edge of the shelf, southern currents intensified in the surface and bottom layers during the passage of cyclones and at the intermediate depths during the passage of fronts. On the continental slope, southern currents intensified in the surface, intermediate, and bottom layers depending on the type of extreme events.

     

Approaches to analyse and model changes in impacts: reply to discussions of “How to improve attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts”*

ABSTRACT

We thank the authors, Brunella Bonaccorso and Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen for their constructive contributions to the discussion about the attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts. We appreciate that they support our opinion, but in particular their additional new ideas on how to better understand changes in impacts. It is great that they challenge us to think a step further on how to foster the collection of long time series of data and how to use these to model and project changes. Here, we elaborate on the possibility to collect time series of data on hazard, exposure, vulnerability and impacts and how these could be used to improve e.g. socio-hydrological models for the development of future risk scenarios.     

Influence of rainfall on the deformation and stability of a slope in overconsolidated clays: a case study

The behaviour of an instrumented unstable slope in a profile of weathered overconsolidated clay has been analysed. Available field investigation data and laboratory tests were integrated in a coupled hydromechanical model of the slope. Particular attention was given to the unsaturated soil conditions above the water table and to the influence of the rainfall record. Recorded pore-water pressures helped to identify the hydrogeological conditions of the slope. The coupled model was used to compute slope deformations and the variation of safety with time. Actual rainfall records were also integrated into the analysis. Comparison of measurements and calculations illustrate the nature of the slope instability and the complex relationships between mechanical and hydraulic factors. Electronic Publication     

Petrology and Geochemistry of the Volcanic Rocks Dredged from the Geophysicist Seamount in the Kurile Basin: Evidence for the Existence of Thinned Continental Crust

Dredged samples from the Geophysicist seamount volcano in the northeastern part of the Kurile Basin include volcanic and volcanoclastic rocks ranging from basalt to andesite. The rocks have geochemical features typical of high-K island-arc calc-alkaline volcanism. They are enriched in LILE and depleted in Zr, Ti, Nb, Ta and Y. The chondrite-normalized REE patterns are characterized by enrichment of LREE similar to those of island-arc lava from the submarine volcanoes of rear-arc zone of the Kurile Island Arc. The volcanic rocks have a wide range of ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios (0.70287-0.70652), varying ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd and Pb isotopic ratios. Their trace-element compositions and Sr-Nd-Pb isotope signatures may be explained by a small addition of crustal continental component to mantle-derived magmas that suggest the existence of thinned continental basement under the eastern part of the Kurile Basin.     

Masses of stellar black holes and testing theories of gravitation

The paper analyzes the mass distribution of stellar black holes derived from the light and radial-velocity curves of optical stars in close binary systems using dynamical methods. The systematic errors inherent in this approach are discussed. These are associated primarily with uncertainties in models for the contribution from gaseous structures to the optical brightness of the systems under consideration. The mass distribution is nearly flat in the range 4–15M _⊙. This is compared with the mass distribution for black holes in massive close binaries, which can be manifest as ultrabright X-ray sources (L _x >10³⁹ erg/s) observed in other galaxies. If the X-ray luminosities of these objects correspond to the Eddington limit, the black-hole mass distribution should be described by a power law, which is incompatible with the flat shape derived dynamically from observations of close binaries in our Galaxy. One possible explanation of this discrepancy is the rapid evaporation of stellar-mass black holes predicted in recent multi-dimensional models of gravity. This hypothesis can be verified by refining the stellar black-hole mass spectrum or finding isolated or binary black holes with masses below ～3M _⊙.     

Energy spectra and relative abundances of ions of C,O, and Fe at 1 AU during the quiet sun

The ion composition of fluxes of charged particles in interplanetary space with energies ∼0.03–10 MeV/nucleon are studied during quiet periods in the 23rd solar-activity cycle using data from the ACE spacecraft. Apart from the activity minimum, the Fe/O ratio during such periods corresponds to either the relative abundances of ions in particle fluxes accelerated in solar flares or the mean abundances of elements in the solar corona. At the cycle minimum, this ratio takes on values characteristic for the solar wind. These results indicate that the background fluxes of low-energy particles in the phases of the growth, maximum, and decay of the solar cycle include significant contributions from both coronal particles accelerated to suprathermal energies and particles accelerated in small impulsive solar flares. The particle fluxes from such flares are distinguished by an enhanced abundance of iron ions.