筒桩基础的地震反应分析

本文基于Biot动力固结方程，在BDWF模型的基础上，通过等价线性迭代不断修正土体模量以逼近土体的非线性动态响应，对建筑筒桩基础的地震反应进行了动力分析。为了分析筒桩基础的地震反应，考虑桩-土-结构的动力相互作用，将桩-土-结构地震反应分析的空间体系简化为二维问题计算。结果表明，筒桩基础桩基相对桩基于桩基有较好的抗震性能，筒桩基础的柔性改善了结构的基本周期。     

A Multiscale Assessment of Shallow Groundwater Salinization in Michigan

Managing nonpoint-source (NPS) pollution of groundwater systems is a significant challenge because of the heterogeneous nature of the subsurface, high costs of data collection, and the multitude of scales involved. In this study, we assessed a particularly complex NPS groundwater pollution problem in Michigan, namely, the salinization of shallow aquifer systems due to natural upwelling of deep brines. We applied a system-based approach to characterize, across multiple scales, the integrated groundwater quantity–quality dynamics associated with the brine upwelling process, assimilating a variety of modeling tools and data—including statewide water well datasets scarcely used for larger scientific analysis. Specifically, we combined (1) data-driven modeling of massive amounts of groundwater/geologic information across multiple spatial scales with (2) detailed analysis of groundwater salinity dynamics and process-based flow modeling at local scales. Statewide “hotspots” were delineated and county-level severity rankings were developed based on dissolved chloride (Cl⁻) concentration percentiles. Within local hotspots, the relative impact of upwelling was determined to be controlled by: (1) streams—which act as “natural pumps” that bring deeper (more mineralized) groundwater to the surface; (2) the occurrence of nearly impervious geologic material at the surface—which restricts fresh water dilution of deeper, saline groundwater; and (3) the space–time evolution of water well withdrawals—which induces slow migration of saline groundwater from its natural course. This multiscale, data-intensive approach significantly improved our understanding of the brine upwelling processes in Michigan, and has applicability elsewhere given the growing availability of statewide water well databases.     

An iterative pressure‐stabilized fractional step algorithm in saturated soil dynamics

This paper presents an iterative, incremental pressure‐stabilized fractional step algorithm for coupled hydro‐mechanical problems with mixed formulations of the displacement–pressure ( u –p) model in saturated soil dynamics that allows the use of finite elements with equal low order of interpolation approximation of u and p. In comparison with the original fractional step algorithm, the distinct features of the proposed algorithm lie in its enhanced stability owing to the introduction of both an iteration procedure and a finite increment calculus (FIC) process into the algorithm. The introduction of the iterative procedure makes the velocity term satisfy the momentum conservation equation in an implicit sense and allows much larger time step sizes to be used than those limited in existing explicit and semi‐implicit versions of the algorithm. The introduction of the FIC process removes the dependence of the stability of the proposed algorithm on the time step size, as a result it allows to using the incremental version of the algorithm and evades the minimum time step size requirement presented in the existing versions of the fractional step algorithm that restricts the application of the algorithm to saturated soil dynamics problems with high frequencies. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness and improved performance of the proposed iterative pressure‐stabilized fractional step algorithm. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Uncertainty in projections of the South Asian summer monsoon under global warming by CMIP6 models: Role of tropospheric meridional thermal contrast

本文基于第六次国际耦合模式比较计划共18个模式的工业革命前实验和CO₂浓度突然四倍实验,发现在CO₂四倍强迫下,南亚夏季风环流呈显著减弱趋势,但减弱强度存在较大模式间差异.利用Webster-Yang指数和经向哈得莱环流指数的下降趋势表征SASM减弱强度,发现该下降趋势与欧亚大陆-印度洋之间对流层上层经向温度梯度的变化值(EUTT-IUTT)高度相关.进一步利用气候反馈-响应分析方法进行分析,发现EUTT-IUTT变化的模式间差异主要来自于大气动力过程,其次是云的短波辐射效应的贡献.地表潜热通量和云的长波辐射效应缩小了EUTT-IUTT变化的模式间差异.     

世界气象中心(北京)全球预报服务共享平台设计与实现

世界气象中心(北京)建设是中国气象局承担世界气象组织(WMO)的全球数据处理和预报系统(GDPFS)要求的任务,为全球实时气象预报预测业务提供高效丰富的无缝隙天气气候监测、预报、预测分析指导产品及数据产品服务共享,提高区域性国际天气业务会商交流效率,国家气象中心设计并实现了世界气象中心(北京)全球预报服务共享平台,通过分析全球监测、预报预测等业务数据海量、异构、实时性强等特征,采用浏览器/服务器(B/S结构)多层架构和分布式实时处理、任务调度等关键技术实现了全球实况监测、天气模式、气候模式、模式检验数据的高效加工预处理、产品分析制作、产品自动流转、网络服务共享和业务指导等全流程业务功能,并提供了国际天气预报会商等专业化功能。平台自2018年6月6日业务运行以来,已有13个国家和地区注册会商用户,超过15万次全球访问量,为全球专业用户高效提供了全球实时天气监测、预报服务产品业务指导,未来将成为中国气象局对外气象业务指导和气象服务的重要窗口和纽带。     

最佳气候相似法及在短期气候预测中的应用

本文采用了最佳气候找相似的预报方法来制作长期天气预报。由于这种方法使用了地面、高空、太阳活动和海温资料,具有长时段,多要素,综合性强的特点,所以预报较客观,对预报年的年景能作出较为准确的判断。由于不同站点资料代表着不同地区的气候背景,因而能分片制作短期气候预测,为解决目前短期预报中小尺度天气难的问题提供了较为详实的气候背景和可靠的预报依据。此方法虽属统计方法,但与中、短期数值预报有某些相似之处,主要体现在预测因子的同时性和连续性,对要素的预测如同数值预报产品的释用。     

大庆市环境地质问题及防治对策研究

通过统计、对比等方法,在大庆市环境地质问题调查研究的基础上,分析、归纳了大庆市存在环境地质问题的类型、规模、产生原因、危害程度等;并有针对性地提出了相应的防治对策.     

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捷联式海洋重力数据的小波阈值滤波

基于捷联式海洋重力测量数据,对比不同小波、阈值及施加方式对滤波效果的影响。结果表明,db6、db7、db8、db9、db10、sym6、sym7、sym8、sym9、sym10、coif3、coif4和coif5小波较适用于海洋重力测量,小波分解层次可取至8层或9层,采用史坦无偏风险阈值滤波效果较好;小波分解至第8、9层时,阈值滤波结果与截止频率为0.005 Hz和0.003 3 Hz的Butterworth低通滤波器的滤波结果吻合较好,但小波阈值滤波结果更加平滑,两者差值的RMSE在0.25 mGal以内,且小波阈值滤波更容易分解出噪声成分,可以更有效地消除重力畸变。     

A PCSWMM/GIS-based water balance model for the Reesor Creek watershed

This paper presents the results of a study of a watershed experiencing the pressures of land-use change resulting from urban development. The study was undertaken to facilitate an understanding of the water balance of the watershed by developing and implementing watershed procedures that are to be addressed in a watershed plan. There were three components to the research: firstly, observation of the effects of spatially distributed rainfall measurements and their effect on modelling were assessed. Secondly, the model was then calibrated by observing how differing techniques can discretize both the landscape (e.g. land-use and soil type) and incoming precipitation. Finally, a modelling methodology was developed to integrate a Geographic Information System and a hydrologic model (e.g. Storm Water Management Model) in a water balance analysis on a watershed basis. Results show that, under certain conditions, kriging spatially distributed rainfall values can help predict rainfall at ungauged (virtual) sites. Discretization of a watershed was found to affect the differences between measured and generated runoff volumes; however, this can be refined with calibration. It was seen that a strong correlation between measured and predicted rainfall values did not always guarantee a strong relationship between measured and generated runoff Recommendations include the use of a longer time series of rainfall, streamflow and predicted rainfall to observe temporal variations, and the need to assess the differences in modelled rainfall values generated by various surface interpolation methods (e.g. Inverse Distance Weighting and other kriging options) currently available in GIS packages.