The Holocene–Anthropocene transition in lakes of western Spitsbergen,Svalbard (Norwegian High Arctic): climate change and nitrogen deposition

Lake sediments from four small lakes on western Spitsbergen (Svalbard Archipelago, Norwegian High Arctic) preserve biostratigraphic and isotopic evidence for a complex suite of twentieth century environmental changes. At Lake Skardtjørna and Lake Tjørnskardet on Nordenskiöldkysten, there is a marked diatom floristic change coupled to increased diatom concentrations beginning around 1920. At Lake Istjørna and Lake Istjørnelva, 25 km southwest of Longyearbyen, both diatom total valve and chrysophyte stomatocyst concentrations have increased dramatically since the beginning of the 1900s. The early twentieth century changes are probably related to climate warming after the Little Ice Age. However, the most pronounced changes in diatom assemblages seem to have occurred in the last few decades. At the same time, nitrogen stable isotopes in sediment organic matter in two of the lakes became progressively depleted by ~2‰, which is consistent with diffuse atmospheric inputs from anthropogenic sources and attendant fertilization. These data suggest that climate change and nitrogen deposition may be acting together in driving these lakes towards new ecological states that are unique in the context of the Holocene.     

A late Pleistocene and Holocene mineral magnetic record from sediments of Lake Aibi,Dzungarian Basin,NW China

We studied mineral magnetic properties of a 6-m-long, late Pleistocene through Holocene sediment sequence from Lake Aibi in Dzungaria (Zunggary, Junggar), northern Xinjiang, China. Results were used to infer environmental changes and are compared with previously studied cores from Lake Manas. Both water bodies occupy the deepest parts of the Dzungarian Basin and are remnants of large Holocene lakes. During the Late Pleistocene, the magnetic mineralogy in both lakes was dominated by detrital, iron oxide minerals. Oxic conditions, which dominated during sedimentation and early diagenesis, persisted over the Pleistocene–Holocene transition. Later, during the middle Holocene, lake bottom conditions enabled authigenic formation of iron sulphide minerals such as pyrite (FeS₂) in Lake Aibi, and pyrite and greigite (Fe₃S₄) in Lake Manas. This iron sulphide mineralogy suggests increased biological activity in stagnant, anoxic bottom waters. Anoxic bottom conditions started about 9.8 cal kyr BP in Lake Manas and at about 7.2 cal kyr BP in Lake Aibi. A short dry event recorded in Lake Manas between 6.8 and 5.2 cal kyr BP is not clearly observed in Lake Aibi. In the late Holocene, i.e. the last 2.8 cal kyr, sediments of both lakes are again characterised by iron oxides, suggesting well-mixed, shallow water bodies. For this recent period, it seems that the detrital material in the two lakes had a common origin. Magnetic properties of sediments in Lakes Aibi and Manas show broadly similar environmental evolution during the late Pleistocene and Holocene. Nevertheless, despite the close proximity of the two lakes (~200 km) in the same basin, they display some different magnetic properties and record environmental changes at different times.     

辽宁省港口城市地带空间结构及区域作用研究

以辽宁省港口城市地带作为研究对象,从区域作用格局和内部空间组织两方面考察其空间结构。引入场强模型,以城市综合实力水平和最短时间距离为评价变量,通过区域作用力的评价反映港口城市的区域作用格局;运用网络分析方法,通过β指数、γ指数和α指数分析构建港口城市内部空间组织拓扑结构来反映港口城市地带内部组织结构。研究结果:①区域作用格局可将辽宁省港口城市区域作用划分为实力型、区位型和弱势型3种类型;②内部空间组织结构上,丹东空间联系能力相对较好,大连、营口、盘锦、锦州空间联系能力各有侧重,葫芦岛能力较差;③大连市在港口城市地带中处于核心地位,带动6市协调互动共同形成和发挥对外窗口的作用。     

Has climate change driven spatio-temporal changes of cropland in northern China since the 1970s?

Improving the understanding of cropland change and its driving factors is a current focus for policy decision-makers in China. The datasets of cropland and cropland changes from the 1970s to the 2000s were used to explore whether climate change has produced spatio-temporal changes to cropland in northern China since the 1970s. Two representative indicators of heat and water resources, which are important determinants of crop growth and productivity, were considered to track climate change, including active accumulated temperatures ≥10 °C (AAT10) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). Our results showed that rapid cropland change has occurred in northern China since the 1970s, and the area of cropland reclamation (10.23 million ha) was much greater than that of abandoned cropland (2.94 million ha). In the 2000s, the area of cropland with AAT10 higher than 3,000 °C·d increased, while the area of cropland with an SPEI greater than 0.25 decreased compared to the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. It appears that climate warming has provided thermal conditions that have aided rapid cropland reclamation in northern China since the 1970s, and drier climatic conditions did not become a limiting factor for cropland reclamation, especially from the 1990s to the 2000s. Approximately 70 % of cropland reclamation areas were located in warmer but drier regions from the 1990s to the 2000s, and approximately 40 % of cropland abandonment occurred in warmer and wetter conditions that were suitable for agriculture during the periods from the 1970s to the 1980s and the 1990s to the 2000s. Our results suggest that climate change can be considered a driving factor of cropland change in the past several decades in northern China, in addition to socioeconomic factors.     

Spatial Pair-Copula Modeling of Grade in Ore Bodies: A Case Study

A real-world mining application of pair-copulas is presented to model the spatial distribution of metal grade in an ore body. Inaccurate estimation of metal grade in an ore reserve can lead to failure of a mining project. Conventional kriged models are the most commonly used models for estimating grade and other spatial variables. However, kriged models use the variogram or covariance function, which produces a single average value to represent the spatial dependence for a given distance. Kriged models also assume linear spatial dependence. In the application, spatial pair-copulas are used to appropriately model the non-linear spatial dependence present in the data. The spatial pair-copula model is adopted over other copula-based spatial models since it is better able to capture complex spatial dependence structures. The performance of the pair-copula model is shown to be favorable compared to a conventional lognormal kriged model.     

Knowledge-Driven Prospectivity Mapping for Granite-Related Polymetallic Sn–F–(REE) mineralization,Bushveld Igneous Complex,South Africa

This paper presents mineral prospectivity mapping to identify potential new exploration ground for polymetallic Sn–F–REE mineralization associated with the Bushveld granites of the Bushveld Igneous Complex, South Africa. The Lebowa Granite Suite, commonly known as the Bushveld granites, is host to a continuum of polymetallic mineralization with a wide range of metal assemblages (Sn–Mo–W–Cu–Pb–Zn–As–Au–Ag–Fe–F–U–REE), ranging from a high-temperature to a low-temperature magmatic hydrothermal mineralizing environment. The prospectivity map was generated by fuzzy logic modeling and a selection of targeting criteria (or spatial proxies) based on a conceptual mineral system highlighting critical processes responsible for the formation of the polymetallic mineralization. The spatial proxies include proximity to differentiated granites (as heat and metal-rich fluid sources), Rb geochemical map (fluid-focusing mechanism such as fractionation process), principal component maps (PC 4 Y–Th and PC 14 Sn–W, fluid pathways for both high- and low-temperature mineralization) and proximity to roof rocks (traps for fluids). Logarithmic functions were used to rescale rasterized evidential maps into continuous fuzzy membership scores in a range of [0, 1]. The evidential maps were combined in two-staged integration matrix using fuzzy AND, OR and gamma operators to produce the granite-related polymetallic Sn–F–(REE) prospectivity map. The conceptual mineral system model and corresponding prospectivity model developed in this study yielded an encouraging result by delineating the known mineral deposits and occurrences of Sn–F–(REE) mineralization that were not used to assign weights to the evidential maps. The prospectivity model predicted, on average, 77% of the known mineral occurrences in the BIC (i.e., 56 of 73 Sn occurrences, 12 of 15 F occurrences and 6 of 8 REE occurrences). Based on this validation, 13 new targets were outlined in this study.     

Drought characteristics of Henan province in 1961-2013 based on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

Drought is one of the most complex natural hazards affecting agriculture, water resources, natural ecosystems, and society. The negative societal consequences of drought include severe economic losses, famine, epidemics, and land degradation. However, few studies have analyzed the complexity of drought characteristics, both at multiple time scales and with variations in evapotranspiration. In this study, drought occurrences were quantified using a new drought index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), based on observed data of monthly mean temperature and precipitation from 1961 to 2013 in Henan province, central China. Based on the SPEI values of each weather station in the study, the frequency and severity of meteorological droughts were computed, and the monthly, seasonal, and annual drought frequency and intensity over a 53-year period were analyzed. The spatial and temporal evolution, intensity, and the primary causes of drought occurrence in Henan were revealed. The results showed that the SPEI values effectively reflected the spatial and temporal pattern of drought occurrence. As the time scale decreased, the amplitude of the SPEI increased and droughts became more frequent. Since 1961, drought has occurred at the annual, seasonal, and monthly scales, and the occurrence of drought has increased. However, regional distribution has been uneven. The highest drought frequency, 35%, was observed in the Zhoukou region, while the lowest value, ~26%, was measured in central and western Henan. The most severe droughts occurred in the spring and summer, followed by autumn. Annually, wide-ranging droughts occurred in 1966–1968, 1998–2000, and 2011–2013. The drought intensity showed higher values in north and west Henan, and lower values in its east and south. The maximum drought intensity value was recorded in Anyang, and the minimum occurred in Zhumadian, at 22.18% and 16.60%, respectively. The factors with the greatest influence on drought occurrence are increasing temperatures, the Eurasian atmospheric circulation patterns, and the El Niño effect.     

Reponses and sensitivities of maize phenology to climate change from 1981 to 2009 in Henan Province,China

With the global warming, crop phenological shifts in responses to climate change have become a hot research topic. Based on the long-term observed agro-meteorological phenological data (1981–2009) and meteorological data, we quantitatively analyzed temporal and spatial shifts in maize phenology and their sensitivities to key climate factors change using climate tendency rate and sensitivity analysis methods. Results indicated that the sowing date was significantly delayed and the delay tendency rate was 9.0 d·10a^-1. But the stages from emergence to maturity occurred earlier (0.1 d·10a^-1<θ<1.7 d·10a^-1, θ is the change slope of maize phenology). The length of vegetative period (VPL) (from emergence to tasseling) was shortened by 0.9 d·10a^-1, while the length of generative period (GPL) (from tasseling to maturity) was lengthened by 1.7 d·10a^-1. The growing season length (GSL) (from emergence to maturity) was lengthened by 0.4 d·10a^-1. Correlation analysis indicated that maize phenology was significantly correlated with average temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration and growing degree days (GDD) (p<0.01). Average temperature had significant negative correlation relationship, while precipitation, sunshine duration and growing degree days had significant positive correlations with maize phenology. Sensitivity analysis indicated that maize phenology showed different responses to variations in key climate factors, especially at different sites. The conclusions of this research could provide scientific supports for agricultural adaptation to climate change to address the global food security issue.     

中国入境旅游的经济增长效应与空间差异性研究

在旅游业与经济增长作用关系分析基础上,探究了旅游溢出理论,将其产生机制归纳为知识溢出、市场溢出和竞争效应3个方面。实证分析中,构建了包括入境旅游、物质资本、人力资本、科技创新和对外开放的分析框架,运用中国大陆31个省域2000~2014年面板数据对入境旅游的经济增长效应进行实证检验。全局分析得出中国入境旅游在邻近省市以集聚与合作为主,邻近省域入境旅游发展对本地经济增长具有辐射带动作用,且这种空间溢出效应大于直接效应;入境旅游业发达的地区,入境旅游的经济增长效应更大。局部分析发现,随着入境旅游的发展,入境旅游的经济增长效应不断强化,中部部分地区提升幅度最大;入境旅游的经济增长效应存在空间差异性,东部沿海地区贡献最大,西北地区相对最小。