融合像素—多尺度区域特征的高分辨率遥感影像分类算法

针对基于像素多特征的高分辨率遥感影像分类算法的"胡椒盐"现象和面向对象影像分析方法的"平滑地物细节"现象,提出了一种融合像素特征和多尺度区域特征的高分辨率遥感影像分类算法。(1)首先采用均值漂移算法对原始影像进行初始过分割,然后对初始过分割结果进行多尺度的区域合并,形成多尺度分割结果。根据多尺度区域合并RMI指数变化和分割尺度对分类精度的影响,确定最优分割尺度。(2)融合光谱特征、像元形状指数PSI(Pixel Shape Index)、初始尺度和最优尺度区域特征,并对多类型特征进行归一化,最后结合支持向量机(SVM)进行分类。实验结果表明该算法既能有效减少基于像素多特征的高分辨率遥感影像分类算法的"胡椒盐"现象,又能保持地物对象的完整性和地物细节信息,提高易混淆类别(如阴影和街道,裸地和草地)的分类精度。     

地理国情监测中地理格网的生成方法与应用

地理国情监测除获取基础地理信息之外,更加关注社会专题信息,因此,需要将基础地理信息与社会专题信息进行有效整合。该文根据最新的地理格网国家标准文件,按照区域内的具体情况和统计分析要求,制作地理格网文件,并以川西城市群人口数据为例,生成了人口格网化专题地图,为接下来的综合地理国情信息的统计分析与评估给予了一定的启示,促进了地理国情监测工作的开展。     

天津市北辰区设施农业温光气候资源变化分析

利用北辰区气象站近40 a(1971-2010年)冬季的气象观测资料,对影响设施农业生产的温光气候资源和主要气象灾害变化进行了分析.结果认为:温度资源变化利于设施农业生产,光照资源的变化则与之相反,低温、连阴天等农业气象灾害对设施农业的影响加剧,尤以中度和重度灾害的发生明显,北辰区的这一变化对研究我国北方大城市郊区设施农业生产的气候资源变化具有借鉴意义.     

Numerical simulation and evaluation of Asian dust events observed in Mongolia in spring 2011

The Asian dust forecasting model, Mongolian Asian Dust Aerosol Model (MGLADAM), has been operated by the National Agency for Meteorology and Environmental Monitoring of Mongolia since 2010, for the forecast of Asian dust storms. In order to evaluate the performance of the dust prediction model, we simulated Asian dust events for the period of spring 2011. Simulated features were compared with observations from two sites in the dust source region of the Gobi desert in Mongolia, and in the downstream region in Korea. It was found that the simulated wind speed and friction velocity showed a good correlation with observations at the Erdene site (one of the sites in the Gobi desert). The results show that the model is proficient in the simulation of dust concentrations that are within the same order of magnitude and have similar start and end times, compared with PM₁₀ observed at two monitoring sites in the Gobi regions. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of the dust simulation ranges up to 200 μg m^?3 because of the high concentrations in source regions, which is three times higher than that in the downstream region. However, the spatial pattern of dust concentration matches well with dust reports from synoptic observation. In the downwind regions, it was found that the model simluated all reported dust cases successfully. It was also found that the RMSE in the downwind region increased when the model integration time increased, but that in the source regions did not show consistent change. It suggests that MGLADAM has the potential to be used as an operational dust forecasting model for predicting major dust events over the dust source regions as well as predicting transported dust concentrations over the downstream region. However, it is thought that further improvement in the emission estimation is necessary, including accurate predictions in surface and boundary layer meteorology. In the downwind regions, background PM₁₀ concentration is considerably affected by other aerosol species, suggesting that a consideration of anthropogenic pollutants will be required for accurate dust forecasting.     

Statistical decadal predictions for sea surface temperatures: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions

Accurate decadal climate predictions could be used to inform adaptation actions to a changing climate. The skill of such predictions from initialised dynamical global climate models (GCMs) may be assessed by comparing with predictions from statistical models which are based solely on historical observations. This paper presents two benchmark statistical models for predicting both the radiatively forced trend and internal variability of annual mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on a decadal timescale based on the gridded observation data set HadISST. For both statistical models, the trend related to radiative forcing is modelled using a linear regression of SST time series at each grid box on the time series of equivalent global mean atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The residual internal variability is then modelled by (1) a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) and (2) a constructed analogue model (CA). From the verification of 46 retrospective forecasts with start years from 1960 to 2005, the correlation coefficient for anomaly forecasts using trend with AR1 is greater than 0.7 over parts of extra-tropical North Atlantic, the Indian Ocean and western Pacific. This is primarily related to the prediction of the forced trend. More importantly, both CA and AR1 give skillful predictions of the internal variability of SSTs in the subpolar gyre region over the far North Atlantic for lead time of 2–5 years, with correlation coefficients greater than 0.5. For the subpolar gyre and parts of the South Atlantic, CA is superior to AR1 for lead time of 6–9 years. These statistical forecasts are also compared with ensemble mean retrospective forecasts by DePreSys, an initialised GCM. DePreSys is found to outperform the statistical models over large parts of North Atlantic for lead times of 2–5 years and 6–9 years, however trend with AR1 is generally superior to DePreSys in the North Atlantic Current region, while trend with CA is superior to DePreSys in parts of South Atlantic for lead time of 6–9 years. These findings encourage further development of benchmark statistical decadal prediction models, and methods to combine different predictions.     

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.     

大珠母贝人工苗育成研究

采用剥落、不剥落、特制附着基 3种育成方式对大珠母贝人工苗进行了研究。结果表明 :在雷州白蝶贝自然保护区 ,用海底沉笼方法对大珠母贝人工苗育成 ,2 10d后壳高达 (5 3.4 0± 0 .5 8)mm时成活率为 76 .5 %。在海南黎安港 ,用 3种不同的育成方式进行对比试验 ,其中 2 0 0 2年特制附着基组 ,成活率明显高于剥落苗组和不剥落苗组 ,180d后在壳高达 (5 8.2 0± 0 .6 3)mm时成活率为70 1% ,批量生产出壳高 5 0mm以上的大珠母贝 11.2× 10 4 个 ,为大珠母贝苗育成开辟了新途径。     

WCDMA直放站的应用分析

对WCDMA直放站的原理、主要技术指标、覆盖半径计算及其对系统的干扰进行分析和阐述，并就如何最大限度发挥直放站作用进行了必要的工程和理论探讨，同时结合工程实际情况提出了相应的解决方案。