Economic drivers of migration and climate change in LDCs

Environmental migration is a topic which has given rise to widespread debate and gloomy predictions about the state of the world in 2050, but where rigorous research and empirical evidence are unfortunately in short supply. In this paper, we review the existing research on and empirical evidence of how climate change and climate variability in Less Developed Countries (LDCs) affects two main drivers of migration identified by migration models in the economic literature, namely income level differentials between origin and destination areas and income variability in origin areas, and how they in turn affect migration. We find that there are serious gaps in both the economic and the environmental literature that render it impossible to make sound and robust predictions of how climate change and increased climate variability will affect the economic migration drivers, and of how these in turn may change existing migration patterns. There are some empirical indications that income differentials may increase due to lower income levels in the origin areas of LDCs, but virtually no evidence exists of the effects of climate change or increased climate variability on income variability. Furthermore, although a negative relationship between migration and rainfall has been established by many researchers, there is only very limited evidence as to what drives it. A clearer picture of the driving force behind the link between rainfall and migration would greatly benefit policymaking in this area.     

Trade in ‘virtual carbon’: Empirical results and implications for policy

The fact that developing countries do not have carbon emission caps under the Kyoto Protocol has led to the current interest in high income countries in border taxes on the ‘virtual’ carbon content of imports. We use GTAP data and input-output analysis to estimate the flows of virtual carbon implicit in domestic production technologies and the pattern of international trade. The results present striking evidence on the wide variation in the carbon-intensiveness of trade across countries, with major developing countries being large net exporters of virtual carbon. Our analysis suggests that a tax on virtual carbon could lead to very substantial effective tariff rates on the exports of the most carbon-intensive developing nations. As an illustration, we find that average tariff rates of 10%, 8% and 12% would be faced by imports from China, India and South Africa if carbon is taxed at $50/ton CO₂. Moreover, there is wide variation in intensiveness across sectors within countries with implications for the disparate effective tariff burdens on particulars parts of the economies of these countries. Such empirical findings, we argue, are useful for framing on-going discussions about the principles and practice of border taxes on virtual carbon.     

Efficient scheme for the shallow water equations on unstructured grids with application to the Continental Shelf

In this paper, a shallow-water flow solver is presented, based on the finite-volume method on unstructured grids The method is suitable for flows that occur in rivers, channels, sewer systems (1D), shallow seas, rivers, overland flow (2D), and estuaries, lakes and shelf breaks (3D). We present an outline of the numerical approach and show three 2D test cases and an application of tidal propagation on the Continental Shelf. The benefits of applying an unstructured grid were explored by creating an efficient model network that aims at keeping the number of grid cells per wavelength constant. The computational speed of our method was compared with that of WAQUA/TRIWAQ and Delft3D (the commonly used structured shallow-flow solvers in The Netherlands), and comparable performance was found.     

Constraining atmospheric oxygen and seawater sulfate concentrations during Paleoproterozoic glaciation: In situ sulfur three-isotope microanalysis of pyrite from the Turee Creek Group, Western Australia

Previous efforts to constrain the timing of Paleoproterozoic atmospheric oxygenation have documented the disappearance of large, mass-independent sulfur isotope fractionation and an increase in mass-dependent sulfur isotope fractionation associated with multiple glaciations. At least one of these glacial events is preserved in diamictites of the ∼2.4 Ga Meteorite Bore Member of the Kungarra Formation, Turee Creek Group, Western Australia. Outcrop exposures of this unit show the transition from the Boolgeeda Iron Formation of the upper Hamersley Group into clastic, glaciomarine sedimentary rocks of the Turee Creek Group. Here we report in situ multiple sulfur isotope and elemental abundance measurements of sedimentary pyrite at high spatial resolution, as well as the occurrence of detrital pyrite in the Meteorite Bore Member. The 15.3‰ range of Δ³³S in one sample containing detrital pyrite (−3.6‰ to 11.7‰) is larger than previously reported worldwide, and there is evidence for mass-independent sulfur isotope fractionation in authigenic pyrite throughout the section (Δ³³S from −0.8‰ to 1.0‰). The 90‰ range in δ³⁴S observed (−45.5‰ to 46.4‰) strongly suggests microbial sulfate reduction under non-sulfate limiting conditions, indicating significant oxidative weathering of sulfides on the continents. Multiple generations of pyrite are preserved, typically represented by primary cores with low δ³⁴S (<−20‰) overgrown by euhedral rims with higher δ³⁴S (4-7‰) and enrichments in As, Ni, and Co. The preservation of extremely sharp sulfur isotope gradients (30‰/<4 μm) implies limited sulfur diffusion and provides time and temperature constraints on the metamorphic history of the Meteorite Bore Member. Together, these results suggest that the Meteorite Bore Member was deposited during the final stages of the “Great Oxidation Event,” when pO₂ first became sufficiently high to permit pervasive oxidative weathering of continental sulfides, yet remained low enough to permit the production and preservation of mass-independent sulfur isotope fractionation.     

S/S fractionation by sulfate-reducing microbial communities in estuarine sediments

Sulfur isotope fractionation during microbial sulfate reduction in brackish estuarine sediments was studied using an experimental flow-through reactor approach designed to preserve the in situ physical, geochemical and microbial structure of the sediment. Concurrent measurements of potential sulfate reduction rates and ³⁴S/³²S fractionations were carried out using intact sediment slices (2 cm thick, 4.2 cm diameter) from unvegetated, intertidal sites adjoining a salt marsh along the Scheldt estuary, The Netherlands. A total of 30 reactor experiments were performed with sediments collected in February, May and October 2006. The effects of incubation temperature (10, 20, 30 and 50 °C) and sediment depth (0-2, 4-6 and 8-10 cm) were investigated. Sulfate was supplied in non-limiting concentrations via the reactor inflow solutions; no external electron donor was supplied. Isotope fractionations (ε values) were calculated from the measured differences in sulfate δ³⁴S between in- and outflow solutions of the reactors, under quasi-steady state conditions. Potential sulfate reduction rates (SRR) varied over one order of magnitude (5-49 nmol cm⁻³ h⁻¹) and were highest in the 30 °C incubations. They decreased systematically with depth, and were highest in the sediments collected closest to the vegetated marsh. Isotope fractionations ranged from 9‰ to 34‰ and correlated inversely with SRR, as predicted by the standard fractionation model for enzymatic sulfate reduction of Rees (1973). The ε versus SRR relationship, however, varied between sampling times, with higher ε values measured in February, at comparable SRRs, than in May and October. The observed ε versus SRR relationships also deviated from the previously reported inverse trend for sediments collected in a marine lagoon in Denmark (Canfield, 2001b). Thus, isotope fractionation during sulfate reduction is not uniquely determined by SRR, but is site- and time-dependent. Factors that may affect the ε versus SRR relationship include the structure and size of the sulfate-reducing community, and the nature and accessibility of organic substrates. Whole-sediment data such as those presented here provide a link between isotopic fractionations measured with pure cultures of sulfate-reducing prokaryotes and sulfur isotopic signatures recorded in sedimentary deposits.     

Thermodynamic study of the association and separation of copper and gold in the Shizishan ore field, Tongling, Anhui Province, China

The Shizishan ore field is the largest gold–copper ore field in the Tongling ore district of Anhui Province, China. Copper and gold deposits in the district are present as one-commodity deposits or as deposits with both commodities. Copper and gold mineralization are either cogenetic or are temporally and spatially distinct. We present the results of systematic geochemical analysis of fluid inclusions from typical Au–Cu deposits in the Shizishan ore field; these data are used to determine the solubility of Cu and Au in the ore-forming fluids and to ascertain the mechanisms and factors that controlled variations in the association and separation of copper and gold mineralization. Our results indicate that copper in the ore-forming fluids was transported as CuCl₂⁻ and CuCl⁰ complexes and that the solubility of copper was controlled by variations in Cl⁻ concentration. In addition, the precipitation of copper was controlled by changes in temperature, pH, fO₂, and fO₂. In comparison, gold in the ore-forming fluids was transported as Au(HS)₂⁻ and Au₂S(HS)₂²⁻ complexes, and the solubility of gold was controlled by variations in total sulfur concentration; the precipitation of gold was controlled by temperature, pH, fO₂, and fO₂. These differences between the two elements meant that copper and gold in the ore-forming fluids responded in different ways to changes in physicochemical conditions. Copper precipitated under relatively acidic conditions at high temperatures, while gold precipitated under weakly alkaline conditions at relatively low temperatures; this dissociation resulted in the temporal and spatial separation and zonation of copper and gold mineralization in the Shizishan ore field.     

Geogas transport in fractured hard rock – Correlations with mining seismicity at 3.54 km depth, TauTona gold mine, South Africa

An on-site gas monitoring study has been conducted in the framework of an earthquake laboratory (The International NELSAM–DAFGAS projects) at the TauTona gold mine, South Africa. Five boreholes up to 60 m long were drilled at 3.54 km depth into the highly fractured Pretorius Fault Zone and instruments for chemical and seismic monitoring installed therein. Over the span of 4 years sensitive gas monitoring devices were continuously improved to enable the direct observation of geogas concentration variations in the DAFGAS borehole. The major gas concentrations are constant and air-like with about 78% N₂, 21% O₂, 1% Ar. The geogas components CO₂, CH₄, He and H₂ show the most interesting trends and variations on the minute-by-minute basis and significantly correlate with seismic data, while the ²²²Rn activity remains constant. Time series and cross correlation analysis allow the identification of different gas components (geogas and tunnel air) and the identification of two processes influencing the borehole gas composition: (1) pumping-induced tunnel air breakthrough through networks of initially water-saturated fault fractures; and (2) seismicity induced permeability enhancement of fault fractures to above ∼5 × 10^-10 m². The current set-up of the gas monitoring system is sensitive enough to quantify the resulting geogas transport during periods of intense blasting activities (including recorded blasts with seismic moment ?1 × 10⁹ Nm, located within 1000 m of the cubby) and, it is suggested, also during induced earthquakes, a final goal of the project.     

雪峰山早中生代构造演化:构造学和年代学分析木

雪峰山主体地处湖南省境内,位于华南板块的中心区域,是一条典型的陆内造山带.通过详细的野外地质观察,我们将其分为3个构造单元:西部外区,主要以大型箱状褶皱为主;中部区,与西部区以主逆冲断层相分隔,劈理发育呈扇状,是雪峰山构造带的核心区域,也是变质级别最深、变形最强的区域;东部区,变形集中在脆韧性区域之上,以极性北西构造为...     

Hydrogeology and groundwater flow in a basalt-capped Mesozoic sedimentary series of the Ethiopian highlands

A hydrogeological study was undertaken in the Zenako-Argaka catchment, near Hagere Selam in Tigray, northern Ethiopia, during the rainy season of 2006. A geological map was produced through geophysical measurements and field observations, and a fracture zone identified in the north west of the catchment. A perched water table was found within the Trap Basalt series above the laterized upper Aram Aradam Sandstones. A map of this water table was compiled. Water-level variation during the measurement period was at least 4.5?m. Variation in basal flow for the whole catchment for the measurement period was between 12 and 276?m³/day. A groundwater flow model was produced using Visual MODFLOW, indicating the general direction of flow to be towards the south, and illustrating that the waterways have only a limited influence on groundwater flow. The soil water budget was calculated for the period 1995?C2006, which showed the important influence of the distribution of rainfall in time. Although Hagere Selam received some 724?mm of rainfall per year over this period, the strong seasonal variation in rainfall meant there was a water deficit for on average 10?months per year.