Temporal constraints on the growth and decay of large-scale mobilized mud masses and implications for fluid flow mapping in sedimentary basins

Seismic-stratigraphic analysis of the Cretaceous to succession of the Uer Terrace, North Sea seabed Basin, Norway, demonstrates that the Upper Oligocene succession has undergone large-scale mobilization of mudstone-dominated units due to the upward migration of water and associated hydrocarbons into the interval, which is in some way linked to a period of gas expulsion from adjacent deep basins. Seismic-stratigraphic analysis of units overlying the mobilized zones indicates they created positive seafloor topography during the Late Miocene implying gaseous fluids were expelled at the seabed. Loading by the overlying Pliocene succession caused the mobilized mud masses to deflate and resulted in the formation of low-relief, fault-bounded craters. The results of this study have implications for understanding the location and timing of fluid flow in sedimentary basins.     

Large-scale slope failure involving Triassic and Middle Miocene salt and shale in the Gulf of Cádiz (Atlantic Iberian Margin)

Sheets of salt and ductile shale advancing beyond the thrust front of the Gibraltar Arc (Iberian–Moroccan Atlantic continental margin) triggered downslope movements of huge allochthonous masses. These allochthons represent the Cádiz Nappe, which detached from the Gibraltar Arc along low‐angle normal faults and migrated downslope from the Iberian and Moroccan continental margins towards the Atlantic Ocean. Extensional tectonics initiated upslope salt withdrawal and downslope diapirism during large‐scale westward mass wasting from the shelf and upper slope. Low‐angle salt and shale detachments bound by lateral ramps link extensional structures in the shelf to folding, thrusting and sheets of salt and shale in the Gulf of Cádiz. From backstripping analyses carried out on the depocentres of the growth‐fault‐related basins on the shelf, we infer two episodes of rapid subsidence related to extensional collapses; these were from Late Tortonian to Late Messinian (200–400 m Myr^?1) and from Early Pliocene to Late Pliocene (100–150 m Myr^?1). The extensional events that induced salt movements also affected basement deformation and were, probably, associated with the westward advance of frontal thrusts of the Gibraltar Arc as a result of the convergence between Africa and Eurasia. The complexities of salt and/or shale tectonics in the Gulf of Cádiz result from a combination of the deformations seen at convergent and passive continental margins.     

Developing seasonal rainfall scenarios for food security early warning

Rainfed agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for 95 % of the local cereal production, impacting hundreds of millions of people. Early identification of poor rainfall conditions is a critical indicator of food security. As such, monitoring accumulated seasonal rainfall gives an important mid-season estimate of final accumulated totals. However, characterizing the remaining uncertainty in a season has largely been ignored by the food security community. This paper presents a new technique describing rainfall conditions over the duration of a crop-growing cycle by combining estimated rainfall-to-date with potential scenarios for the remaining season based on available satellite rainfall estimates, the common tool for rainfall analysis in Africa. The limited historical record provided by satellite rainfall estimates using previous seasons provides only a coarse view of likely seasonal totals. To combat this, scenarios developed by bootstrapping dekadal data to create synthetic seasons allow for a finer understanding of potential seasonal accumulations. Updating this throughout the season shows a narrowing envelope of seasonal totals, converging on the final seasonal result. The resulting scenarios inform the expectations for the final seasonal rainfall accumulation, allowing analysts to quantify and visualize the uncertainty in seasonal totals. Giving decision makers a tool for understanding the likelihood of specific rainfall amounts provides additional time to enact and mobilize efforts to reduce the impact of agricultural drought.     

Sea‐level response at Nain,Labrador, to atmospheric pressure and wind

Abstract

Two years of subtidal sea‐level data from Nain, Labrador, are analysed in terms of local atmospheric pressure and the two components of geostrophic wind or stress. Frequency‐dependent response coefficients are determined by multiple regression analysis involving inversion of the cross‐spectral matrix of the inputs. At very low frequencies the response to pressure is isostatic and the wind stress coefficients are consistent with those determined by Thompson et al. (1985) from analysis of a longer series of monthly means. There is very little change in the response between icy and ice‐free seasons. The wind, or stress, coefficients correspond to geostrophic set‐up by a narrow longshore current but do not show as much of an increase of phase lag with increasing frequency as expected. The pressure response is less than isostatic and lags as the frequency increases from zero to about 0.02 cph. Possible reasons for this are discussed. Removal of wind as well as pressure effects ffom the sea‐level data makes only minor changes to the monthly mean residual sea‐level.     

Stochastic models of severe weather watches and warnings: transition probabilities

To alert the public to the possibility of tornado (T), hail (H), or convective wind (C), the National Weather Service (NWS) issues watches (V) and warnings (W). There are severe thunderstorm watches (SV), tornado watches (TV), and particularly dangerous situation watches (PV); and there are severe thunderstorm warnings (SW), and tornado warnings (TW). Two stochastic models are formulated that quantify uncertainty in severe weather alarms for the purpose of making decisions: a one-stage model for deciders who respond to warnings, and a two-stage model for deciders who respond to watches and warnings. The models identify all possible sequences of watches, warnings, and events, and characterize the associated uncertainties in terms of transition probabilities. The modeling approach is demonstrated on data from the NWS Norman, Oklahoma, warning area, years 2000–2007. The major findings are these. (i) Irrespective of its official designation, every warning type {SW, TW} predicts with a significant probability every event type {T, H, C}. (ii) An ordered intersection of SW and TW, defined as reinforced warning (RW), provides additional predictive information and outperforms SW and TW. (iii) A watch rarely leads directly to an event, and most frequently is false. But a watch that precedes a warning does matter. The watch type \(\{SV\), TV, \(PV\}\) is a predictor of the warning type \(\{SW\), RW, \(TW\}\) and of the warning performance: It sharpens the false alarm rate of the warning and the predictive probability of an event, and it increases the average lead time of the warning.