Using Statistical Downscaling to Quantify the GCM-Related Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change Scenarios： A Case Study of Swedish Precipitation

There are a number of sources of uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios. When statistical downscaling is used to obtain regional climate change scenarios, the uncertainty may originate from the uncertainties in the global climate models used, the skill of the statistical model, and the forcing scenarios applied to the global climate model. The uncertainty associated with global climate models can be evaluated by examining the differences in the predictors and in the downscaled climate change scenarios based on a set of different global climate models. When standardized global climate model simulations such as the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP2） are used, the difference in the downscaled variables mainly reflects differences in the climate models and the natural variability in the simulated climates. It is proposed that the spread of the estimates can be taken as a measure of the uncertainty associated with global climate models. The proposed method is applied to the estimation of global-climate-model-related uncertainty in regional precipitation change scenarios in Sweden. Results from statistical downscaling based on 17 global climate models show that there is an overall increase in annual precipitation all over Sweden although a considerable spread of the changes in the precipitation exists. The general increase can be attributed to the increased large-scale precipitation and the enhanced westerly wind. The estimated uncertainty is nearly independent of region. However, there is a seasonal dependence. The estimates for winter show the highest level of confidence, while the estimates for summer show the least.     

Potential spread of recently naturalised plants in New Zealand under climate change

Climate change and biological invasions are major causes of biodiversity loss and may also have synergistic effects, such as range shifts of invaders due to changing climate. Bioclimatic models provide an important tool to assess how the threat of invasive species may change with altered temperature and precipitation regimes. In this study, potential distributions of three recently naturalised plant species in New Zealand are modelled (Archontophoenix cunninghamiana, Psidium guajava and Schefflera actinophylla), using four different general circulation models (CCCMA-CGCM3, CSIRO-Mk3.0, GFDL-CM2.0 and UKMO-HADCM3) with two emission scenarios (A2 and B1) each. Based on a maximum entropy approach, models were trained on global data using a small set of uncorrelated predictors. The models were projected to the country of interest, using climate models that had been statistically downscaled to New Zealand, in order to obtain high resolution predictions. This study provides evidence of the potential range expansion of these species, with potentially suitable habitat increasing by as much as 169 % (A. cunninghamiana; with up to 115,805 km² of suitable habitat), 133 % (P. guajava; 164,450 km²) and 208 % (S. actinophylla; 31,257 km²) by the end of the century compared to the currently suitable habitat. The results show that while predictions vary depending on the chosen climate scenario, there is remarkable consistency amongst most climate models within the same emission scenario, with overlaps in areas of predicted presence ranging between 81 % and 99.5 % (excluding CSIRO-Mk3.0). By having a better understanding of how climate change will affect distribution of invasive plants, appropriate management measures can be taken.     

The effect of sampling rate and anti-aliasing filters on high-frequency response spectra

The most commonly used intensity measure in ground-motion prediction equations is the pseudo-absolute response spectral acceleration (PSA), for response periods from 0.01 to 10 s (or frequencies from 0.1 to 100 Hz). PSAs are often derived from recorded ground motions, and these motions are usually filtered to remove high and low frequencies before the PSAs are computed. In this article we are only concerned with the removal of high frequencies. In modern digital recordings, this filtering corresponds at least to an anti-aliasing filter applied before conversion to digital values. Additional high-cut filtering is sometimes applied both to digital and to analog records to reduce high-frequency noise. Potential errors on the short-period (high-frequency) response spectral values are expected if the true ground motion has significant energy at frequencies above that of the anti-aliasing filter. This is especially important for areas where the instrumental sample rate and the associated anti-aliasing filter corner frequency (above which significant energy in the time series is removed) are low relative to the frequencies contained in the true ground motions. A ground-motion simulation study was conducted to investigate these effects and to develop guidance for defining the usable bandwidth for high-frequency PSA. The primary conclusion is that if the ratio of the maximum Fourier acceleration spectrum (FAS) to the FAS at a frequency $f_{saa} $ corresponding to the start of the anti-aliasing filter is more than about 10, then PSA for frequencies above $f_{saa} $ should be little affected by the recording process, because the ground-motion frequencies that control the response spectra will be less than $f_{saa} $ . A second topic of this article concerns the resampling of the digital acceleration time series to a higher sample rate often used in the computation of short-period PSA. We confirm previous findings that sinc-function interpolation is preferred to the standard practice of using linear time interpolation for the resampling.     

Assessment of long term change in sediment condition after organic enrichment: defining recovery

Sediment condition at an Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) culture site in S.E. Tasmania, Australia was evaluated to determine the rate and extent of recovery after removal of farmed fish. By local standards the cage sediment at the start of this survey was markedly degraded but comparison with results from impact studies in Scotland, Canada and Norway suggests that the sediments were considerably less impacted than in northern temperate areas. The impact at the cages diminished rapidly with both time and distance; after only 2 months conditions were markedly improved. The macrobenthos indicated a slower recovery than chemical measures, after 36 months the benthic faunal community structure under the cages still differed from reference conditions even though other sediment measures had recovered. This study highlighted two other key issues in relation to monitoring and management of sediment recovery. First, techniques used to determine impact may not be appropriate for evaluation of recovery. Second, establishment of local baseline standards is extremely important to ensure appropriate evaluation of both impact and recovery.     

Signatures in flowing fluid electric conductivity logs

Flowing fluid electric conductivity logging provides a means to determine hydrologic properties of fractures, fracture zones, or other permeable layers intersecting a borehole in saturated rock. The method involves analyzing the time-evolution of fluid electric conductivity (FEC) logs obtained while the well is being pumped and yields information on the location, hydraulic transmissivity, and salinity of permeable layers. The original analysis method was restricted to the case in which flows from the permeable layers or fractures were directed into the borehole (inflow). Recently, the method was adapted to permit treatment of both inflow and outflow, including analysis of natural regional flow in the permeable layer. A numerical model simulates flow and transport in the wellbore during flowing FEC logging, and fracture properties are determined by optimizing the match between simulation results and observed FEC logs. This can be a laborious trial-and-error procedure, especially when both inflow and outflow points are present. Improved analyses methods are needed. One possible tactic would be to develop an automated inverse method, but this paper takes a more elementary approach and focuses on identifying the signatures that various inflow and outflow features create in flowing FEC logs. The physical insight obtained provides a basis for more efficient analysis of these logs, both for the present trial and error approach and for a potential future automated inverse approach. Inflow points produce distinctive signatures in the FEC logs themselves, enabling the determination of location, inflow rate, and ion concentration. Identifying outflow locations and flow rates typically requires a more complicated integral method, which is also presented in this paper.     

MTBE in Drinking Water Production – Occurrence and Efficiency of Treatment Technologies

In Germany, the gasoline additive methyl tert‐butyl ether (MTBE) is almost constantly detected in measurable concentrations in surface waters and is not significantly removed during riverbank filtration. The removal of MTBE from water has been the focus of many studies that mostly were performed at high concentration levels and centred in understanding the mechanisms of elimination. In order to assess the performance of conventional and advanced water treatment technologies for MTBE removal in the low concentration range further studies were undertaken. Laboratory experiments included aeration, granulated activated carbon (GAC) adsorption, ozonation and advanced oxidation processes (AOP). The results show that the removal of MTBE by conventional technologies is not easily achieved. MTBE is only removed by aeration at high expense. Ozonation at neutral pH values did not prove to be effective in eliminating MTBE at all. The use of ozone/H₂O₂ (AOP) may lead to a partly elimination of MTBE. However, the ozone/H₂O₂ concentrations required for a complete removal of MTBE from natural waters is much higher than the ozone levels applied nowadays in waterworks. MTBE is only poorly adsorbed on activated carbon, thus GAC filtration is not efficient in eliminating MTBE. A comparison with real‐life data from German waterworks reveals that if MTBE is detected in the raw water it is most often found in the corresponding drinking water as well due to the poor removal efficiency of conventional treatment steps.     

Evaluation of short-term fallowing as a strategy for the management of recurring organic enrichment under salmon cages

Rotation of cages within fish farm leases and the subsequent fallowing of areas of seabed is commonly used to allow recovery of infaunal communities following periods of organic enrichment. To investigate the effect of different background environmental conditions on recovery response, two Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) fish farm sites in southeast Tasmania were sampled over two commercial fallowing cycles. Despite similar stocking levels and feed input there were significant differences in the way in which sediment at each farm responded to the cessation of fish stocking. Sediments at both farms showed some improvement in the community structure over a three month fallow period, but the community structure only recovered to that present before stocking not to that at the reference sites. The similarity of the impact sites to the reference sites increased from ca. 25% to 31% at one site and 11% to 27% at the other after fallowing. Rate and extent of recovery were affected by farm location, initial impact of the sediments, and length of fallow period. Initial recovery was faster at the more sheltered site than at the more exposed site, possibly reflecting differences in environmental resilience with the more sheltered location better able to assimilate organic inputs. Accordingly general fallowing management protocols may need to be adapted to reflect differences between sites. The findings of this study suggest that the recovery response of benthic communities can be predicted once baseline conditions are understood.