An investigation of tropical Atlantic bias in a high-resolution coupled regional climate model

Coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) commonly fail to simulate the eastern equatorial Atlantic boreal summer cold tongue and produce a westerly equatorial trade wind bias. This tropical Atlantic bias problem is investigated with a high-resolution (27-km atmosphere represented by the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, 9-km ocean represented by the Regional Ocean Modeling System) coupled regional climate model. Uncoupled atmospheric simulations test climate sensitivity to cumulus, land-surface, planetary boundary layer, microphysics, and radiation parameterizations and reveal that the radiation scheme has a pronounced impact in the tropical Atlantic. The CAM radiation simulates a dry precipitation (up to ?90%) and cold land-surface temperature (up to ?8?K) bias over the Amazon related to an over-representation of low-level clouds and almost basin-wide westerly trade wind bias. The Rapid Radiative Transfer Model and Goddard radiation simulates doubled Amazon and Congo Basin precipitation rates and a weak eastern Atlantic trade wind bias. Season-long high-resolution coupled regional model experiments indicate that the initiation of the warm eastern equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) bias is more sensitive to the local rather than basin-wide trade wind bias and to a wet Congo Basin instead of dry Amazon—which differs from AOGCM simulations. Comparisons between coupled and uncoupled simulations suggest a regional Bjerknes feedback confined to the eastern equatorial Atlantic amplifies the initial SST, wind, and deepened thermocline bias, while barrier layer feedbacks are relatively unimportant. The SST bias in some CRCM simulations resembles the typical AOGCM bias indicating that increasing resolution is unlikely a simple solution to this problem.     

Russian eruption warning systems for aviation

More than 65 potentially active volcanoes on the Kamchatka Peninsula and the Kurile Islands pose a substantial threat to aircraft on the Northern Pacific (NOPAC), Russian Trans-East (RTE), and Pacific Organized Track System (PACOTS) air routes. The Kamchatka Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT) monitors and reports on volcanic hazards to aviation for Kamchatka and the north Kuriles. KVERT scientists utilize real-time seismic data, daily satellite views of the region, real-time video, and pilot and field reports of activity to track and alert the aviation industry of hazardous activity. Most Kurile Island volcanoes are monitored by the Sakhalin Volcanic Eruption Response Team (SVERT) based in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk. SVERT uses daily moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite images to look for volcanic activity along this 1,250-km chain of islands. Neither operation is staffed 24 h per day. In addition, the vast majority of Russian volcanoes are not monitored seismically in real-time. Other challenges include multiple time-zones and language differences that hamper communication among volcanologists and meteorologists in the US, Japan, and Russia who share the responsibility to issue official warnings. Rapid, consistent verification of explosive eruptions and determination of cloud heights remain significant technical challenges. Despite these difficulties, in more than a decade of frequent eruptive activity in Kamchatka and the northern Kuriles, no damaging encounters with volcanic ash from Russian eruptions have been recorded.     

Geochemical constraints on the origin of the Permian Baimazhai mafic–ultramafic intrusion,SW China

The ∼260 Ma Baimazhai mafic–ultramafic intrusion is considered to be part of the Emeishan large igneous province and consists of orthopyroxenite surrounded by websterite and gabbro. The intrusion is variably mineralized with a massive sulfide ore body (∼20 vol.%) in the core of the intrusion. Silicate rocks have Ni/Cu ratios ranging from 0.3 to 46 with majority less than 7 and are rich in LREE relative to HREE and show Nb and Ta anomalies in primitive mantle-normalized trace element patterns, with low Nb/Th (1.0–4.5) and Nb/La (0.3–1.0) ratios. Their ɛ Nd(t) values range from −3.3 to −8.4. Uniform Pd/Pt (0.7–3.5) and Cu/Pd (100,000–400,000) ratios throughout the intrusion indicate that all the sulfides in the rocks were formed in a single sulfide-saturation event. Modeling suggests that the Baimazhai rocks were formed when an Mg-rich magma became crustally contaminated in a deep-seated staging chamber. Crustal contamination (up to ∼35%) drove the magma to S-saturation and forced orthopyroxene (Opx) onto the liquidus. The crystal-bearing magma forced out of the staging chamber was migrated by flow differentiation and consequently, the denser sulfide melt and the Opx crystals became centrally disposed in the flowing magma to form the Baimazhai intrusion.Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available to authorised users in the online version of this article at .     

Northern African climate at the end of the twenty-first century: an integrated application of regional and global climate models

A method for simulating future climate on regional space scales is developed and applied to northern Africa. Simulation with a regional model allows for the horizontal resolution needed to resolve the region’s strong meridional gradients and the optimization of parameterizations and land-surface model. The control simulation is constrained by reanalysis data, and realistically represents the present day climate. Atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) output provides SST and lateral boundary condition anomalies for 2081–2100 under a business-as-usual emissions scenario, and the atmospheric CO₂ concentration is increased to 757 ppmv. A nine-member ensemble of future climate projections is generated by using output from nine AOGCMs. The consistency of precipitation projections for the end of the twenty-first century is much greater for the regional model ensemble than among the AOGCMs. More than 77% of ensemble members produce the same sign rainfall anomaly over much of northern Africa. For West Africa, the regional model projects wetter conditions in spring, but a mid-summer drought develops during June and July, and the heat stoke risk increases across the Sahel. Wetter conditions resume in late summer, and the likelihood of flooding increases. The regional model generally projects wetter conditions over eastern Central Africa in June and drying during August through September. Severe drought impacts parts of East Africa in late summer. Conditions become wetter in October, but the enhanced rainfall does not compensate for the summertime deficit. The risk of heat stroke increases over this region, although the threat is not projected to be as great as in the Sahel.     

Shifting post production patterns: exploring changes in New Zealand's seafood processing industry

This paper examines the changing nature of New Zealand's seafood companies' production practices. The past 15 years has seen the offshore outsourcing of post-harvest fish gain unprecedented momentum. The growth in offshore processing is a further stage in an increasingly globalised fisheries value chain. Fish is head and gutted, frozen and then transported to processing sites in China where it is thawed, value-added processed and refrozen for export to the original sourcing country or third country markets. Reasons advanced by the industry for this shift in production practices include quota reductions, increasing production costs and the sale of trawlers.     

Vulnerability of water supply from the Oregon Cascades to changing climate: Linking science to users and policy

Despite improvements in understanding biophysical response to climate change, a better understanding of how such changes will affect societies is still needed. We evaluated effects of climate change on the coupled human-environmental system of the McKenzie River watershed in the Oregon Cascades in order to assess its vulnerability. Published empirical and modeling results indicate that climate change will alter both the timing and quantity of streamflow, but understanding how these changes will impact different water users is essential to facilitate adaptation to changing conditions. In order to better understand the vulnerability of four water use sectors to changing streamflow, we conducted a series of semi-structured interviews with representatives of each sector, in which we presented projected changes in streamflow and asked respondents to assess how changing water availability would impact their activities. In the McKenzie River watershed, there are distinct spatial and temporal patterns associated with sensitivity of water resources to climate change. This research illustrates that the implications of changing streamflow vary substantially among different water users, with vulnerabilities being determined in part by the spatial scale and timing of water use and the flexibility of those uses in time and space. Furthermore, institutions within some sectors were found to be better positioned to effectively respond to changes in water resources associated with climate change, while others have substantial barriers to the flexibility needed to manage for new conditions. A clearer understanding of these opportunities and constraints across water use sectors can provide a basis for improving response capacity and potentially reducing vulnerability to changing water resources in the region.     

The silicon isotopic composition of surface waters in the Atlantic and Indian sectors of the Southern Ocean

We report here the silicon isotopic composition (δ³⁰Si) of dissolved silicon (DSi) from 42 surface water samples from the Drake Passage, the Weddell Gyre, other areas south of the Southern Boundary of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), and the ACC near the Kerguelen Plateau, taken between the beginning of February and the end of March 2007. From the beginning to end of the cruise (ANTXXIII/9), DSi diminished in the Antarctic by 50 μmol L⁻¹ while concentrations of nitrate + nitrite and phosphate showed no net decline, indicating that the high seasonal Si/N removal ratios well known for the Southern Ocean may be more related to the strength of the silicate pump in the Southern Ocean than to the instantaneous Si/N uptake ratio of diatoms. The δ³⁰Si of DSi in samples containing more than 20 μM DSi were strongly negatively correlated to DSi concentrations, supporting the use of δ³⁰Si as a proxy for DSi removal. The “open system” fractionation observed, ε = −1.2 ± 0.11‰, agrees well with results from previous work in other areas, and the estimate of the initial δ³⁰Si of DSi of +1.4‰ is not far off observations of the δ³⁰Si of DSi in Winter Water (WW) in this area. Results were used to model DSi draw down in the past from the δ³⁰Si of sediment cores, although isotopic fractionation during silica dissolution appeared to influence the δ³⁰Si of some surface water samples, inviting further study of this phenomenon.     

Growth rate of the preserved continental crust: II. Constraints from Hf and O isotopes in detrital zircons from Greater Russian Rivers

Detrital zircons from the Ob, Yenisey, Lena, Amur, Volga, Dnieper, Don and Pechora rivers have been analyzed for U-Th-Pb, O and Lu-Hf isotopes to constrain the growth rate of the preserved continental crust in Greater Russia. Four major periods of zircon crystallization, 0.1-0.55, 0.95-1.3, 1.45-2.0 and 2.5-2.9 Ga, were resolved from a compilation of 1366 zircon U/Pb ages. The Archean zircons have δ¹⁸O values lying between 4.53‰ and 7.33‰, whereas Proterozoic and Phanerozoic zircons have a larger range of δ¹⁸O values in each of the recognized U/Pb time intervals with maximum δ¹⁸O values up to 12‰. We interpret the zircons with δ¹⁸O between 4.5‰ and 6.5‰ to have been derived from a magmatic precursor that contains little or no sedimentary component. The variable δ¹⁸O values of the zircons were used to constrain the ¹⁷⁶Lu/¹⁷⁷Hf ratios of the crustal source region of the zircons, which, in turn, were used to calculate Hf model ages (T_DM^V). The crustal incubation time, the time difference between primitive crust formation (dated by T_DM^V) and crustal melting (dated by zircon U/Pb age), varies between 300 to 1000 Myr for the majority of analyzed zircon grains, but can be up to 2500 Myr. The average T_DM^V Hf model age weighted by the fraction of zircons in the river load is 2.12 Ga, which is in reasonable agreement with the area-weighted average of 2.25 Ga. The T_DM^V Hf model age crustal growth curve for zircons with mantle-like δ¹⁸O values (4.5-6.5‰), weighted by area, shows that growth of the Great Russian continental crust started at 4.2 Ga, and that there are two principal periods of crustal growth, 3.6-3.3 Ga and 0.8-0.6 Ga, which are separated by an interval of low but more or less continuous growth. An alternative interpretation, in which the average ¹⁷⁶Lu/¹⁷⁷Hf ratio (0.0115) of the continental crust is used for the Paleoproterozoic zircons from the Lena River, lowers the average T_DM^V age of these grains by about 500 Myr and delays the onset of significant crustal growth to 3.5 Ga.The two principal growth periods recognized in Greater Russia differ from those identified from the Gondwana and the Mississippi river basin, which show peaks at 1.7-1.9 and 2.9-3.1 Ga (Hawkesworth and Kemp, 2006a) and 1.6-2.2 and 2.9-3.4 Ga (Wang et al., 2009), respectively. The older 3.6-3.3 Ga or 3.5-3.3 Ga peak for Greater Russia is slightly older than the older Gondwana-Mississippi peaks, whereas the younger 0.8-0.6 Ga peak is distinctly younger than the youngest peak in either Gondwana or the Mississippi river basin. This suggests that the two major peaks of crustal growth identified in Gondwana and the Mississippi river basin may not be global periods of enhanced continental growth and that the major periods of crustal growth may differ from continent to continent.