Analysis of high-resolution simulations for the Black Forest region from a point of view of tourism climatology �C a comparison between two regional climate models (REMO and CLM)

An analysis of climate simulations from a point of view of tourism climatology based on two regional climate models, namely REMO and CLM, was performed for a regional domain in the southwest of Germany, the Black Forest region, for two time frames, 1971?C2000 that represents the twentieth century climate and 2021?C2050 that represents the future climate. In that context, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios A1B and B1 are used. The analysis focuses on human-biometeorological and applied climatologic issues, especially for tourism purposes ?C that means parameters belonging to thermal (physiologically equivalent temperature, PET), physical (precipitation, snow, wind), and aesthetic (fog, cloud cover) facets of climate in tourism. In general, both models reveal similar trends, but differ in their extent. The trend of thermal comfort is contradicting: it tends to decrease in REMO, while it shows a slight increase in CLM. Moreover, REMO reveals a wider range of future climate trends than CLM, especially for sunshine, dry days, and heat stress. Both models are driven by the same global coupled atmosphere?Cocean model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Because both models are not able to resolve meso- and micro-scale processes such as cloud microphysics, differences between model results and discrepancies in the development of even those parameters (e.g., cloud formation and cover) are due to different model parameterization and formulation. Climatic changes expected by 2050 are small compared to 2100, but may have major impacts on tourism as for example, snow cover and its duration are highly vulnerable to a warmer climate directly affecting tourism in winter. Beyond indirect impacts are of high relevance as they influence tourism as well. Thus, changes in climate, natural environment, demography, tourists?? demands, among other things affect economy in general. The analysis of the CLM results and its comparison with the REMO results complete the analysis performed within the project Climate Trends and Sustainable Development of Tourism in Coastal and Low Mountain Range Regions (CAST) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).     

Effects of chronic exposure to dispersed oil on selected reproductive processes in adult blue mussels (Mytilus edulis) and the consequences for the early life stages of their larvae

Mussels (Mytilus edulis) were continuously exposed to dispersed crude oil (0.015-0.25 mg/l) for 7 months covering the whole gamete development cycle. After 1 month exposure to 0.25 mg oil/l, the level of alkali-labile phosphates (ALP) and the volume density of atretic oocytes in female gonads were higher than those in the gonads of control females, indicating that oil affected the level of vitellogenin-like proteins and gamete development. Spawning of mussels was induced after 7 months oil exposure. Parental oil exposure did not affect subsequent fertilization success in clean seawater but this was reduced in 0.25 mg oil/l. Parental exposure to 0.25 mg oil/l caused both slow development and a higher percentage of abnormalities in D-shell larvae 2 days post-fertilization; reduced growth 7 days post-fertilization. These effects were greatly enhanced when larval stages were maintained at 0.25 mg oil/l. Similar studies are warranted for risk assessment prognosis.     

Satellite and ground observations of the June 2009 eruption of Sarychev Peak volcano, Matua Island, Central Kuriles

After 33 years of repose, one of the most active volcanoes of the Kurile island arc—Sarychev Peak on Matua Island in the Central Kuriles—erupted violently on June 11, 2009. The eruption lasted 9 days and stands among the largest of recent historical eruptions in the Kurile Island chain. Satellite monitoring of the eruption, using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, Meteorological Agency Multifunctional Transport Satellite, and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer data, indicated at least 23 separate explosions between 11 and 16 June 2009. Eruptive clouds reached altitudes of generally 8–16 km above sea level (ASL) and in some cases up to 21 km asl. Clouds of volcanic ash and gas stretched to the north and northwest up to 1,500 km and to the southeast for more than 3,000 km. For the first time in recorded history, ash fall occurred on Sakhalin Island and in the northeast sector of the Khabarovsky Region, Russia. Based on satellite image analysis and reconnaissance field studies in the summer of 2009, the eruption produced explosive tephra deposits with an estimated bulk volume of 0.4 km³. The eruption is considered to have a Volcanic Explosivity Index of 4. Because the volcano is remote, there was minimal risk to people or infrastructure on the ground. Aviation transport, however, was significantly disrupted because of the proximity of air routes to the volcano.     

Chalcophile element geochemistry and petrogenesis of high-Ti and low-Ti magmas in the Permian Emeishan large igneous province,SW China

Sulfide-poor mafic layered intrusions, sills/dykes and lava flows in the Funing region, SW China, are part of the ~260 Ma Emeishan large igneous province. They belong to either a high-Ti group (TiO₂ = 1.6–4.4 wt%) with elevated Ti/Y ratios (351–1,018), or a low-Ti group (TiO₂ < 1.2 wt%) with low Ti/Y ratios (133–223). This study investigates the role of fractionation of olivine, chromite and sulfide on the distributions of chalcophile elements, Ni, Cu and PGE, of the high-Ti and low-Ti group rocks at Funing. The high-Ti group rocks contain 1.6–5.3 ppb Pt + Pd, 0.06–0.43 ppb Ir and 0.01–0.13 ppb Ru, and show relative constant (Cu/Pd)_PM ratios (4.0–9.7) and a negative correlation between Ni/Pd and Cu/Ir ratios. Fractionated IPGE/PPGE patterns and very negative Ru anomalies of the high-Ti group rocks, together with low Fo values (59–62 mol%) of olivine, indicate that the high-Ti magmas may have experienced fractionation of olivine and chromite under S-undersaturated condition. Based on the PGE concentrations, the low-Ti group rocks can be further divided into two subgroups; a high-PGE low-Ti subgroup and a low-PGE low-Ti subgroup. The high-PGE low-Ti group rocks are rich in MgO (10–20 wt%), but Fo values of olivine from the rocks are low (74–76 mol%). The rocks contain highly variable PGE (Pt + Pd = 1.7–88 ppb, Ir = 0.05–1.3 ppb), Ni (179 –1,380 ppm) and Cu (59–568 ppm). They have Cu/Zr ratios >1, low (Y/Pd)_PM ratios (0.2–7.1) and nearly constant (Cu/Pd)_PM ratios (1.5–3.8). The even and parallel chalcophile element patterns of the high-PGE low-Ti subgroup rocks are likely a result of olivine-dominated fractionation under S-undersaturated condition. The low-PGE low-Ti group rocks have low MgO (4.5–8.9 wt%) and very poor PGE (Pt + Pd 0.5–1.6 ppb, Ir 0.004–0.02 ppb) with low Cu/Zr ratios (0.1–0.5), high (Y/Pd)_PM (26–70) and variable (Cu/Pd)_PM ratios (2.8–14). The trough-like chalcophile element patterns of the low-PGE low-Ti subgroup rocks indicate that the magmas were sulfide saturation and sulfide melts were extracted from the magmas. The extracted sulfide melts might be potential Ni–Cu sulfide ores at depth in the Funing region.     

Mid-twenty-first century warm season climate change in the Central United States. Part I: regional and global model predictions

A regional climate model (RCM) constrained by future anomalies averaged from atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations is used to generate mid-twenty-first century climate change predictions at 30-km resolution over the central U.S. The predictions are compared with those from 15 AOGCM and 7 RCM dynamic downscaling simulations to identify common climate change signals. There is strong agreement among the multi-model ensemble in predicting wetter conditions in April and May over the northern Great Plains and drier conditions over the southern Great Plains in June through August for the mid-twenty-first century. Projected changes in extreme daily precipitation are statistically significant over only a limited portion of the central U.S. in the RCM constrained with future anomalies. Projected changes in monthly mean 2-m air temperature are generally consistent across the AOGCM ensemble average, North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program RCM ensemble average, and RCM constrained with future anomalies, which produce a maximum increase in August of 2.4–2.9 K over the northern and southern Great Plains and Midwest. Changes in extremes in daily 2-m air temperature from the RCM downscaled with anomalies are statistically significant over nearly the entire Great Plains and Midwest and indicate a positive shift in the warm tail of the daily 2-m temperature distribution that is larger than the positive shift in the cold tail.     

On the applicability of the RETAS model for forecasting aftershock probability in underground mines (Kiirunavaara Mine,Sweden)

Aftershock series of even comparatively small seismic events can pose a risk to the mining operation or the personnel in deep underground mines as the main shocks and some of the aftershocks can cause damage in the rock mass. Stochastic modeling was applied in this study for the analysis of the temporal evolution of aftershock occurrence probability during a M1.85 aftershock sequence in Kiirunavaara Mine, Sweden. The Restricted Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (RETAS) model was chosen for estimation of the aftershock occurrence probability. This model considers all events with magnitude above the magnitude of completeness M₀ and has the advantage of including the Modified Omori Formula (MOF) model and Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model as its end versions, considering also all intermediate models. The model was applied sequentially to data samples covering cumulative periods of time, starting from the first 2 h after the main event and increasing them by 2 h until the period covered the entire 72-h sequence. For each sample, the best-fit RETAS version was identified and the probability of a M?≥?0.5 aftershock for every next 2 h was determined through Monte Carlo simulation. The feasibility of the resulting probability evolution for suspension and re-starting of the mining operations was discussed together with possible prospects for future development of the methodology.

     

Spatial patterns of simulated transpiration response to climate variability in a snow dominated mountain ecosystem

Transpiration is an important component of soil water storage and stream‐flow and is linked with ecosystem productivity, species distribution, and ecosystem health. In mountain environments, complex topography creates heterogeneity in key controls on transpiration as well as logistical challenges for collecting representative measurements. In these settings, ecosystem models can be used to account for variation in space and time of the dominant controls on transpiration and provide estimates of transpiration patterns and their sensitivity to climate variability and change. The Regional Hydro‐Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys) model was used to assess elevational differences in sensitivity of transpiration rates to the spatiotemporal variability of climate variables across the Upper Merced River watershed, Yosemite Valley, California, USA. At the basin scale, predicted annual transpiration was lowest in driest and wettest years, and greatest in moderate precipitation years (R² = 0·32 and 0·29, based on polynomial regression of maximum snow depth and annual precipitation, respectively). At finer spatial scales, responsiveness of transpiration rates to climate differed along an elevational gradient. Low elevations (1200–1800 m) showed little interannual variation in transpiration due to topographically controlled high soil moistures along the river corridor. Annual conifer stand transpiration at intermediate elevations (1800–2150 m) responded more strongly to precipitation, resulting in a unimodal relationship between transpiration and precipitation where highest transpiration occurred during moderate precipitation levels, regardless of annual air temperatures. Higher elevations (2150–2600 m) maintained this trend, but air temperature sensitivities were greater. At these elevations, snowfall provides enough moisture for growth, and increased temperatures influenced transpiration. Transpiration at the highest elevations (2600–4000 m) showed strong sensitivity to air temperature, little sensitivity to precipitation. Model results suggest elevational differences in vegetation water use and sensitivity to climate were significant and will likely play a key role in controlling responses and vulnerability of Sierra Nevada ecosystems to climate change. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of lignin-derived phenols in standard reference materials and ocean dissolved organic matter by gas chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry

A series of reference materials are proposed for intercomparison and quality control purposes during the quantification of lignin oxidation products (LOP) from diverse environmental matrices. These materials are all easily accessible and certified for diverse organic constituents (NIST and IHSS). They represent a suite of natural environmental matrices (from solids to aqueous) and are characterized by a wide range of organic carbon and lignin concentrations with abundant proportions of all major LOP. The variability of LOP concentrations and signatures for all these materials averages 3–5% and does not exceed 10%. Using these standards, a new quantification method was developed and validated for the determination of low-level CuO oxidation products using capillary gas chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry (GC/MS–MS). Tandem mass spectrometry provides both the high sensitivity and selectivity required for the identification and quantification of trace levels of dissolved lignin. The method is particularly useful for removing interference from co-eluting isotopes generated from the DOM matrix and during glucose amendment procedures of low-carbon samples. Such glucose amendment is not necessary, however, when the CuO to organic carbon weight-to-weight ratio can be kept at a value < 200–300.