Preparing for climate change in Washington State

Climate change is expected to bring potentially significant changes to Washington State’s natural, institutional, cultural, and economic landscape. Addressing climate change impacts will require a sustained commitment to integrating climate information into the day-to-day governance and management of infrastructure, programs, and services that may be affected by climate change. This paper discusses fundamental concepts for planning for climate change and identifies options for adapting to the climate impacts evaluated in the Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment. Additionally, the paper highlights potential avenues for increasing flexibility in the policies and regulations used to govern human and natural systems in Washington.     

Public health impacts of climate change in Washington State: projected mortality risks due to heat events and air pollution

Illness and mortality related to heat and worsening air quality are core public health concerns associated with climate change projections. We examined the historical relationship between age- and cause-specific mortality rates from 1980 through 2006 and heat events at the 99th percentile of humidex values in the historic period from January 1, 1970 to December 31, 2006 in the greater Seattle area (King, Pierce and Snohomish counties), Spokane County, the Tri-Cities (Benton and Franklin counties) and Yakima County; the relative risks of mortality during heat events were applied to population and climate projections for Washington State to calculate number of deaths above the baseline (1980–2006) expected during projected heat events in 2025, 2045 and 2085. Three different warming scenarios were used in the analysis. Relative risks for the greater Seattle area showed a significant dose-response relationship between heat event duration and daily mortality rates for non-traumatic deaths for persons ages 45 and above, typically peaking at four days of exposure to humidex values above the 99th percentile. The largest number of projected excess deaths in all years and scenarios for the Seattle region was found for age 65 and above. Under the middle warming scenario, this age group is expected to have 96, 148 and 266 excess deaths from all non-traumatic causes in 2025, 2045 and 2085, respectively. We also examined projected excess deaths due to ground-level ozone concentrations at mid century (2045–2054) in King and Spokane counties. Current (1997–2006) ozone measurements and mid-twenty-first century ozone projections were coupled with dose-response data from the scientific literature to produce estimates overall and cardiopulmonary mortality. Daily maximum 8-h ozone concentrations are forecasted to be 16–28% higher in the mid twenty-first century compared to the recent decade of 1997–2006. By mid-century in King County the non-traumatic mortality rate related to ozone was projected to increase from baseline (0.026 per 100,000; 95% confidence interval 0.013–0.038) to 0.033 (95% CI 0.017–0.049). For the same health outcome in Spokane County, the baseline period rate of 0.058 (95% CI 0.030–0.085) was estimated increase to 0.068 (95% CI 0.035–0.100) by mid-century. The cardiopulmonary death rate per 100,000 due to ozone was estimated to increase from 0.011 (95% CI 0.005–0.017) to 0.015 (0.007–0.022) in King County, and from 0.027 (95% CI 0.013–0.042) to 0.032 (95% CI 0.015–0.049) in Spokane County. Public health interventions aimed at protecting Washington’s population from excessive heat and increased ozone concentrations will become increasingly important for preventing deaths, especially among older adults. Furthermore, heat and air quality related illnesses that do not result in death, but are serious nevertheless, may be reduced by the same measures.     

Comparison of environmental tracers including organic micropollutants as groundwater exfiltration indicators into a small river of a karstic catchment

Understanding groundwater–surface water (GW–SW) interactions is vital for water management in karstic catchments due to its impact on water quality. The objective of this study was to evaluate and compare the applicability of seven environmental tracers to quantify and localize groundwater exfiltration into a small, human-impacted karstic river system. Tracers were selected based on their emission source to the surface water either as (a) dissolved, predominantly geogenic compounds (radon-222, sulphate and electrical conductivity) or (b) anthropogenic compounds (predominantly) originating from wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluents (carbamazepine, tramadol, sodium, chloride). Two contrasting sampling approaches were compared (a) assuming steady-state flow conditions and (b) considering the travel time of the water parcels (Lagrangian sampling) through the catchment to account for diurnal changes in inflow from the WWTP. Spatial variability of the concentrations of all tracers indicated sections of preferential groundwater inflow. Lagrangian sampling techniques seem highly relevant for capturing dynamic concentration patterns of WWTP-derived compounds. Quantification of GW inflow with the finite element model FINIFLUX, based on observed in-stream Rn activities led to plausible fluxes along the investigated river reaches (0.265 m³ s⁻¹), while observations of other natural or anthropogenic environmental tracers produced less plausible water fluxes. Important point sources of groundwater exfiltration can be ascribed to locations where the river crosses geological fault lines. This indicates that commonly applied concepts describing groundwater–surface water interactions assuming diffuse flow in porous media are difficult to transfer to karstic river systems whereas concepts from fractured aquifers may be more applicable. In general, this study helps selecting the best suited hydrological tracer for GW exfiltration and leads to a better understanding of processes controlling groundwater inflow into karstic river systems.     

Wind-forced circulation model and water exchanges through the channel in the Bay of Toulon

A hydrodynamic model of the Bay of Toulon has been developed for use as a post-accident radionuclide dispersion simulation tool. Located in a Mediterranean urban area, the Bay of Toulon is separated into two basins by a 1.4-km long seawall. The Little Bay is semi-enclosed and connected to the Large Bay by a fairway channel. This channel is the site of significant water mass exchange as a result of both wind-driven currents and bathymetry. It is therefore a focal point for marine contamination. As part of the model calibration and validation process, the first step consisted of studying the water mass exchange between the two basins. An Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler was moored in the channel for 1 year. The present study analyses in situ data to determine the current intensity and direction, and also to better understand the vertical current profile, which is highly correlated with meteorological forcing. Comparisons of model-generated and measured data are presented, and various atmospheric forcing datasets are used to enhance computed results. It appears that accurate meteorological forcing data is needed to enhance the accuracy of the hydrodynamic model. This channel is an important location for water mass renewal in the Bay of Toulon, and model results are used to quantify these exchanges. The mean calculated annual water exchange time is approximately 3.4 days. However, this duration is strongly wind dependent and shortens during windy winter months. It ranges from 1.5 days during strong wind periods to 7.5 days during calm weather. Residence time values calculated through tracer dispersion modelling after release at the back of the Little Bay are found to be comparable to the mean exchange time values, especially for windy conditions.     

Energetic Charged Particles Above Thunderclouds

The French government has committed to launch the satellite TARANIS to study transient coupling processes between the Earth’s atmosphere and near-Earth space. The prime objective of TARANIS is to detect energetic charged particles and hard radiation emanating from thunderclouds. The British Nobel prize winner C.T.R. Wilson predicted lightning discharges from the top of thunderclouds into space almost a century ago. However, new experiments have only recently confirmed energetic discharge processes which transfer energy from the top of thunderclouds into the upper atmosphere and near-Earth space; they are now denoted as transient luminous events, terrestrial gamma-ray flashes and relativistic electron beams. This meeting report builds on the current state of scientific knowledge on the physics of plasmas in the laboratory and naturally occurring plasmas in the Earth’s atmosphere to propose areas of future research. The report specifically reflects presentations delivered by the members of a novel Franco-British collaboration during a meeting at the French Embassy in London held in November 2011. The scientific subjects of the report tackle ionization processes leading to electrical discharge processes, observations of transient luminous events, electromagnetic emissions, energetic charged particles and their impact on the Earth’s atmosphere. The importance of future research in this area for science and society, and towards spacecraft protection, is emphasized.     

Algorithms for Stellar Perturbation Computations on Oort Cloud Comets

We investigate different approximate methods of computing the perturbations on the orbits of Oort cloud comets caused by passing stars, by checking them against an accurate numerical integration using Everhart’s RA15 code. The scenario under study is the one relevant for long-term simulations of the cloud’s response to a predefined set of stellar passages. Our sample of stellar encounters simulates those experienced by the Solar System currently, but extrapolated over a time of 10¹⁰ years. We measure the errors of perihelion distance perturbations for high-eccentricity orbits introduced by several estimators – including the classical impulse approximation and Dybczyński’s (1994, Celest. Mech. Dynam. Astron. 58, 1330–1338) method – and we study how they depend on the encounter parameters (approach distance and relative velocity). We introduce a sequential variant of Dybczyński’s approach, cutting the encounter into several steps whereby the heliocentric motion of the comet is taken into account. For the scenario at hand this is found to offer an efficient means to obtain accurate results for practically any domain of the parameter space.     

Modelling carbon cycling through phytoplankton and microbes in the Scotia—Weddell Sea area during sea ice retreat

An ecological model to calculate phytoplankton development and microbial loop dynamics in the marginal ice zone of the antarctic ecosystem has been established on the basis of physical and biological (phyto- and bacterioplankton biomass and activity and counting of two classes of heterotrophic nanoplankton) measurements carried out in the marginal ice zone of the Scotia-Weddell Sea sector of the Southern Ocean during sea ice retreat 1988 (EPOS 1 and 2 expeditions). Application of this model at latitudes where sea ice retreat occurs and in adjacent open sea and permanently ice-covered areas demonstrated that the marginal ice zone is a region of enhanced primary and bacterioplankton production. Combining the results of the phyto- and bacterioplankton models allowed the quantitative estimate of the carbon fluxes through the lower level of the planktonic food web of the Weddell Sea marginal ice zone during the sea ice retreat period. The resulting carbon budget revealed the quantitative importance of microbial and micrograzing processes in the pathways of net primary production, 71% of this latter being assimilated in the microbial food web. However, total net microbial food web secondary production contributed 28% of‘marginal ice zone produced’ food resources available to krill and other Zooplankton.