The influence of model structure on groundwater recharge rates in climate-change impact studies

Numerous modeling approaches are available to provide insight into the relationship between climate change and groundwater recharge. However, several aspects of how hydrological model choice and structure affect recharge predictions have not been fully explored, unlike the well-established variability of climate model chains—combination of global climate models (GCM) and regional climate models (RCM). Furthermore, the influence on predictions related to subsoil parameterization and the variability of observation data employed during calibration remain unclear. This paper compares and quantifies these different sources of uncertainty in a systematic way. The described numerical experiment is based on a heterogeneous two-dimensional reference model. Four simpler models were calibrated against the output of the reference model, and recharge predictions of both reference and simpler models were compared to evaluate the effect of model structure on climate-change impact studies. The results highlight that model simplification leads to different recharge rates under climate change, especially under extreme conditions, although the different models performed similarly under historical climate conditions. Extreme weather conditions lead to model bias in the predictions and therefore must be considered. Consequently, the chosen calibration strategy is important and, if possible, the calibration data set should include climatic extremes in order to minimise model bias introduced by the calibration. The results strongly suggest that ensembles of climate projections should be coupled with ensembles of hydrogeological models to produce credible predictions of future recharge and with the associated uncertainties.     

Modelling non-stationary water ages in a tropical rainforest: A preliminary spatially distributed assessment

Pristine tropical forests play a critical role in regional and global climate systems. For a better understanding of the eco-hydrology of tropical “evergreen” vegetation, it is essential to know the partitioning of water into transpiration and evaporation, runoff and associated water ages. For this purpose, we evaluated how topography and vegetation influence water flux and age dynamics at high temporal (hourly) and spatial (10 m) resolution using the Spatially Distributed Tracer-Aided Rainfall-Runoff model for the tropics (STARRtropics). The model was applied in a tropical rainforest catchment (3.2 km²) where data were collected biweekly to monthly and during intensive monitoring campaigns from January 2013 to July 2018. The STARRtropics model was further developed, incorporating an isotope mass balance for evapotranspiration partitioning into transpiration and evaporation. Results exhibited a rapid streamflow response to rainfall inputs (water and isotopes) with limited mixing and a largely time-invariant baseflow isotope composition. Simulated soil water storage showed a transient response to rainfall inputs with a seasonal component directly resembling the streamflow dynamics which was independently evaluated using soil water content measurements. High transpiration fluxes (max 7 mm/day) were linked to lower slope gradients, deeper soils and greater leaf area index. Overall water partitioning resulted in 65% of the actual evapotranspiration being driven by vegetation with high transpiration rates over the drier months compared to the wet season. Time scales of water age were highly variable, ranging from hours to a few years. Stream water ages were conceptualized as a mixture of younger soil water and slightly older, deeper soil water and shallow groundwater with a maximum age of roughly 2 years during drought conditions (722 days). The simulated soil water ages ranged from hours to 162 days and for shallow groundwater up to 1,200 days. Despite the model assumptions, experimental challenges and data limitation, this preliminary spatially distributed model study enhances knowledge about the water ages and overall young water dominance in a tropical rainforest with little influence of deeper and older groundwater.     

End member and Bayesian mixing models consistently indicate near-surface flowpath dominance in a pristine humid tropical rainforest

The impacts of forest conversion on runoff generation in the tropics have received much interest, but scientific progress is still hampered by challenging fieldwork conditions and limited knowledge about runoff mechanisms. Here, we assessed the runoff generation, flow paths and water source dynamics of a pristine rainforest catchment in Costa Rica using end member mixing analysis (EMMA) and a Bayesian mixing model (MixSIAR). Geochemical tracer data collected over a 4-week field campaign were combined with tritium data used to assess potential deeper groundwater flow pathways to the perennial stream. The streamflow composition was best captured using three end-members, namely throughfall, shallow (5–15 cm) and deeper (15–50 cm) soil water. We estimated the end-member contributions to the main stream and two tributaries using the two mixing approaches and found good agreement between results obtained from EMMA and MixSIAR. The system was overwhelmingly dominated by near-surface sources, with little evidence for deeper and older groundwater as tritium-derived baseflow mean transit time was between 2.0 and 4.4 years. The shallow soil flow pathway dominated streamflow contributions in the main stream (median 39% and 49% based on EMMA and MixSIAR, respectively), followed by the deeper soil (32% and 31%) and throughfall (25% and 19%). The two tributaries had even greater shallow soil water contributions relative to the main stream (83% and 74% for tributary A and 42% and 63% for tributary B). Tributary B had no detectable deep soil water contribution, reflecting the morphology of the hillslope (steeper slopes, shallower soils and lower vegetation density compared to hillslope A). Despite the short sampling campaign and associated uncertainties, this study allowed to thoroughly assess runoff generation mechanisms in a humid tropical catchment. Our results also provide a first comparison of two increasingly used mixing models and suggest that EMMA and MixSIAR yield comparable estimates of water source partitioning in this tropical, volcanic rainforest environment.     

Landslide deposits as stratigraphical markers for a sequence‐based glacial stratigraphy: a case study of a Younger Dryas system in the Eastern Alps

Detailed ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C dating and supporting pollen analysis of Alpine Lateglacial glacial and landslide deposits in the Hohen Tauern Mountains (Austria) constrain a sequence‐based stratigraphy comprising a major landslide (13.0±1.1 ka) overlain by till and termino‐lateral moraines of an advancing (12.6±1.0 ka) and retreating (11.3±0.8 ka) glacier in turn overlain by a minor landslide (10.8±1.1 ka). These results define glacier activity during the Younger Dryas age Egesen stadial bracketed by landslide activities during the Bølling‐Allerød interstadial and the Preboreal. In contrast to recent studies on Holocene glaciation in the Alps, no traces of any Holocene glacier advance bigger than during the Little Ice Age are documented. Furthermore, this study demonstrates the advantages of using an allostratigraphical approach based on unconformity‐bounded sedimentary units as a tool for glacial stratigraphy in formerly glaciated mountain regions, rather than a stratigraphy based on either isolated morphological features or lithostratigraphical characteristics.     

Using high‐resolution isotope data and alternative calibration strategies for a tracer‐aided runoff model in a nested catchment

Testing hydrological models over different spatio‐temporal scales is important for both evaluating diagnostics and aiding process understanding. High‐frequency (6‐hr) stable isotope sampling of rainfall and runoff was undertaken during 3‐week periods in summer and winter within 12 months of daily sampling in a 3.2‐km² catchment in the Scottish Highlands. This was used to calibrate and test a tracer‐aided model to assess the (a) information content of high‐resolution data, (b) effect of different calibration strategies on simulations and inferred processes, and (c) model transferability to <1‐km² subcatchment. The 6‐hourly data were successfully incorporated without loss of model performance, improving the temporal resolution of the modelling, and making it more relevant to the time dynamics of the isotope and hydrometric response. However, this added little new information due to old‐water dominance and riparian mixing in this peatland catchment. Time variant results, from differential split sample testing, highlighted the importance of calibrating to a wide range of hydrological conditions. This also provided insights into the nonstationarity of catchment mixing processes, in relation to storage and water ages, which varied markedly depending on the calibration period. Application to the nested subcatchment produced equivalent parameterization and performance, highlighting similarity in dominant processes. The study highlighted the utility of high‐resolution data in combination with tracer‐aided models, applied at multiple spatial scales, as learning tools to enhance process understanding and evaluation of model behaviour across nonstationary conditions. This helps reveal more fully the catchment response in terms of the different mechanistic controls on both wave celerites and particle velocities.     

Oscillating peat surface levels in a restiad peatland,New Zealand—magnitude and spatiotemporal variability

Hydrology, particularly the water table position below the surface (relative water level, RWL), is an important control on biogeochemical and ecological processes in peatlands. The surface elevation (SE) in a peatland oscillates in response to changes in effective stress on the peat matrix mainly caused by water level fluctuations. This phenomenon is called peatland surface oscillation (PSO). To investigate the spatiotemporal variability of PSO, surface elevation and the water level above sea level (AWL) were measured monthly (23 sites) over one year in a warm‐temperate restiad peatland, New Zealand. At one site peat surface elevation was measured indirectly by monitoring AWL and RWL continuously with pressure transducers. Annual PSO (the difference between maximum and minimum surface elevation) ranged from 3·2 to 28 cm (mean = 14·9 cm). Surface elevation changes were caused by AWL fluctuations. Spatially homogenous AWL fluctuations (mean 40 cm among sites) translated into RWL fluctuations reduced 27–56% by PSO except for three sites with shallow and dense peat at the peatland margin (7–17%). The SE‐AWL relationship was linear for 15 sites. However, eight sites showed significantly higher rates of surface elevation changes during the wet season and thus a non‐linear behaviour. We suggest flotation of upper peat layers during the wet season causing this non‐linear behaviour. Surprisingly, PSO was subjected to hysteresis: the positive SE‐AWL relationship reversed after rainfall when the surface slowly rose despite rapidly receding AWL. Hysteresis was more prominent during the dry season than during the wet season. Total peat thickness and bulk density together could only explain 50% of the spatial variability of PSO based on manual measurements. However, we found three broad types of SE‐AWL relationships differing in shape and slope of SE‐AWL curves. These oscillation types reflected patterns in vegetation and flooding. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic rupture during the 1960 Great Chile and the 2010 Maule earthquakes limited by a giant Pleistocene submarine slope failure

Determining factors that limit coseismic rupture is important to evaluate the hazard of powerful subduction zone earthquakes such as the 2011 Tohoku‐Oki event (Mw = 9.0). In 1960 (Mw = 9.5) and 2010 (Mw = 8.8), Chile was hit by such powerful earthquakes, the boundary of which was the site of a giant submarine slope failure with chaotic debris subducted to seismogenic zone depth. Here, a continuous décollement is absent, whereas away from the slope failure, a continuous décollement is seismically imaged. We infer that underthrusting of inhomogeneous slide deposits prevents the development of a décollement, and thus the formation of a thin continuous slip zone necessary for earthquake rupture propagation. Thus, coseismic rupture during the 1960 and 2010 earthquakes seems to be limited by underthrusted upper plate mass‐wasting deposits. More generally, our results suggest that upper plate dynamics and resulting surface processes can play a key role for determining rupture size of subduction zone earthquakes.     

The importance of tides for sediment dynamics in the deep sea—Evidence from the particulate-matter tracer 234Th in deep-sea environments with different tidal forcing

Key aspects of deep-ocean fluid dynamics such as basin-scale (residual) and tidal flow are believed to have changed over glacial/interglacial cycles, with potential relevance for climatic change. To constrain the mechanistic links, magnitudes and temporal succession of events analyses of sedimentary paleo-records are of great importance. Efforts have been underway for some time to reconstruct residual-flow patterns from sedimentary records. Attempts to reconstruct tidal flow characteristics from deep-sea sediment deposits, however, are at a very early stage and first require a better understanding of the reflection of modern tides in sediment dynamics. In this context internal (baroclinic) tides, which are formed by the surface (barotropic) tide interacting with seafloor obstacles, are believed to play a particularly important role. Here we compare two modern deep-sea environments with respect to the effect of tides on sediment dynamics. Both environments are influenced by kilometre-scale topographic features but with vastly different tidal forcing: (1) two sites in the Northeast Atlantic (NEA) being surrounded by, or located downstream of, fields of short seamounts (maximum barotropic tidal current velocities ～5 cm s^?1); and (2) a site next to the Anaximenes seamount in the Eastern Mediterranean (EMed) (maximum barotropic tidal current velocities ～0.5 cm s^?1). With respect to other key fluid-dynamical parameters both environments are very similar. Signals of sedimentary particle dynamics, as influenced by processes taking place in the bottom boundary layer, were traced by the vertical water-column distribution of radioactive disequilibria (daughter/parent activity ratios≠1) between the naturally occurring, short-lived (half-life: 24.1 d) particulate-matter tracer ²³⁴Th relative to its very long-lived and non-particle-reactive parent nuclide ²³⁸U. Activity ratios of ²³⁴Th/²³⁸U<1 in water samples collected near the seafloor indicate fast ²³⁴Th scavenging onto particles followed by fast settling of these particles from the sampled parcel of water and, therefore, imply active sediment resuspension and dynamics on time scales of up to several weeks. In the Northeast Atlantic study region tides (in particular internal tides) are very likely to locally push total current velocities near the seafloor across the critical current velocity threshold for sediment erosion or resuspension whereas in the Eastern Mediterranean the tides are much too weak for this to happen. This difference in tidal forcing is reflected in a difference of the frequency of the occurrence of radioactive disequilibria <1 between total ²³⁴Th and ²³⁸U: In the near-bottom water column of the Northeast Atlantic region 59% of samples had detectable ²³⁴Th/²³⁸U disequilibria whereas at the Eastern Mediterranean site this fraction was only 7% (including a few disequilibria >1). The results of this study, therefore, add to the evidence suggesting that tides in the deep sea of the open oceans are more important for sediment dynamics than previously thought. It is hypothesised that (a) tide/seamount interactions in the deep open ocean control the local distribution of erosivity proxies (e.g., distributions of sediment grain sizes, heavy minerals and particle-reactive radionuclides) in sedimentary deposits and (b) the aforementioned topographically controlled sedimentary imprints of (internal) tides are useful in the reconstruction of past changes of tidal forcing in the deep sea.