Testing GISS-MM5 physics configurations for use in regional impacts studies

The Mesoscale Modeling System Version 5 (MM5) was one-way nested to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model (GISS GCM), which provided the boundary conditions for present (1990s) and future (IPCC SRES A2 scenario, 2050s) five-summer “time-slice” simulations over the continental and eastern United States. Five configurations for planetary boundary layer, cumulus parameterization, and radiation scheme were tested, and one set was selected for use in the New York City Climate and Health Project—a multi-disciplinary study investigating the effects of climate change and land-use change on human health in the New York metropolitan region. Although hourly and daily data were used in the health project, in this paper we focus on long-term current and projected mean climate change. The GISS-MM5 was very sensitive to the choice of cumulus parameterization and planetary boundary layer scheme, leading to significantly different temperature and precipitation outcomes for the 1990s. These differences can be linked to precipitation type (convective vs. non-convective), to their effect on solar radiation received at the ground, and ultimately to surface temperature. The projected changes in climate (2050s minus 1990s) were not as sensitive to choice of model physics combination. The range of the projected surface temperature changes at a given grid point among the model versions was much less than the mean change for all five model configurations, indicating relative consensus for simulating surface temperature changes among the different model projections. The MM5 versions, however, offer less consensus regarding 1990s to 2050s changes in precipitation amounts. All of the projected 2050s temperature changes were found to be significant at the 95th percent confidence interval, while the majority of the precipitation changes were not.     

Uncertainty and learning: implications for the trade-off between short-lived and long-lived greenhouse gases

The economic benefits of a multi-gas approach to climate change mitigation are clear. However, there is still a debate on how to make the trade-off between different greenhouse gases (GHGs). The trade-off debate has mainly centered on the use of Global Warming Potentials (GWPs), governing the trade-off under the Kyoto Protocol, with results showing that the cost-effective valuation of short-lived GHGs, like methane (CH₄), should be lower than its current GWP value if the ultimate aim is to stabilize the anthropogenic temperature change. However, contrary to this, there have also been proposals that early mitigation mainly should be targeted on short-lived GHGs. In this paper we analyze the cost-effective trade-off between a short-lived GHG, CH₄, and a long-lived GHG, carbon dioxide (CO₂), when a temperature target is to be met, taking into consideration the current uncertainty of the climate sensitivity as well as the likelihood that this will be reduced in the future. The analysis is carried out using an integrated climate and economic model (MiMiC) and the results from this model are explored and explained using a simplified analytical economic model. The main finding is that the introduction of uncertainty and learning about the climate sensitivity increases the near-term cost-effective valuation of CH₄ relative to CO₂. The larger the uncertainty span, the higher the valuation of the short-lived gas. For an uncertainty span of ±1°C around an expected climate sensitivity of 3°C, CH₄ is cost-effectively valued 6.8 times as high as CO₂ in year 2005. This is almost twice as high as the valuation in a deterministic case, but still significantly lower than its GWP₁₀₀ value.     

Impact of Terrain Heterogeneity on Coherent Structure Properties: Numerical Approach

A three-dimensional large-eddy simulation (LES) model, which includes the effects of plant–atmosphere interactions, is used to study the effects of surface inhomogeneities on near-surface coherent structures over an open field and behind a forest canopy. These simulated conditions are representative of two wind sectors of the Site Instrumental de Recherche par Télédétection Atmosphérique (SIRTA) experimental site at the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Palaiseau, France. Coherent structure properties deduced from wavelet transforms of the simulated near-surface vertical velocity time series are not modified by upstream terrain heterogeneities, in agreement with site measurements. This feature is related to the nature of structures detected from the vertical velocity time series. The turbulence close to the surface seems composed of both local coherent structures and large coherent structures reflecting outer-layer properties, which depend on the overall surface heterogeneity or upstream heterogeneity. It is argued that the streamwise velocity is representative of these large outer-layer structures that impinge onto the ground through a top-down mechanism as identified through the space–time correlation of the wind velocity components. In contrast, the vertical velocity is more representative of small structures resulting from the impingement of the large outer-layer structures. These small structures represent locally-generated, active turbulence, which adjusts rapidly to local surface conditions, and consequently they are only weakly dependent on upstream heterogeneities.     

Lunar intrusive domes: Morphometric analysis and laccolith modelling

This study examines a set of lunar domes with very low flank slopes which differ in several respects from the frequently occurring lunar effusive domes. Some of these domes are exceptionally large, and most of them are associated with faults or linear rilles of presumably tensional origin. Accordingly, they might be interpreted as surface manifestations of laccolithic intrusions formed by flexure-induced vertical uplift of the lunar crust (or, alternatively, as low effusive edifices due to lava mantling of highland terrain, or kipukas, or structural features). All of them are situated near the borders of mare regions or in regions characterised by extensive effusive volcanic activity. Clementine multispectral UVVIS imagery indicates that they do not preferentially occur in specific types of mare basalt. Our determination of their morphometric properties, involving a combined photoclinometry and shape from shading technique applied to telescopic CCD images acquired at oblique illumination, reveals large dome diameters between 10 and more than 30 km, flank slopes below 0.9°, and volumes ranging from 0.5 to 50 km³. We establish three morphometric classes. The first class, In1, comprises large domes with diameters above 25 km and flank slopes of 0.2°-0.6°, class In2 is made up by smaller and slightly steeper domes with diameters of 10-15 km and flank slopes between 0.4° and 0.9°, and domes of class In3 have diameters of 13-20 km and flank slopes below 0.3°. While the morphometric properties of several candidate intrusive domes overlap with those of some classes of effusive domes, we show that a possible distinction criterion are the characteristic elongated outlines of the candidate intrusive domes. We examine how they differ from typical effusive domes of classes 5 and 6 defined by Head and Gifford [Head, J.W., Gifford, A., 1980. Lunar mare domes: classification and modes of origin. Moon Planets 22, 235-257], and show that they are likely no highland kipukas due to the absence of spectral contrast to their surrounding. These considerations serve as a motivation for an analysis of the candidate intrusive domes in terms of the laccolith model by Kerr and Pollard [Kerr, A.D., Pollard, D.D., 1998. Toward more realistic formulations for the analysis of laccoliths. J. Struct. Geol. 20(12), 1783-1793], to estimate the geophysical parameters, especially the intrusion depth and the magma pressure, which would result from the observed morphometric properties. Accordingly, domes of class In1 are characterised by intrusion depths of 2.3-3.5 km and magma pressures between 18 and 29 MPa. For the smaller and steeper domes of class In2 the magma intruded to shallow depths between 0.4 and 1.0 km while the inferred magma pressures range from 3 to 8 MPa. Class In3 domes are similar to those of class In1 with intrusion depths of 1.8-2.7 km and magma pressures of 15-23 MPa. As an extraordinary feature, we describe in some detail the concentric crater Archytas G associated with the intrusive dome Ar1 and discuss possible modes of origin. In comparison to the candidate intrusive domes, terrestrial laccoliths tend to be smaller, but it remains unclear if this observation is merely a selection effect due to the limited resolution of our telescopic CCD images. An elongated outline is common to many terrestrial laccoliths and the putative lunar laccoliths, while the thickness values measured for terrestrial laccoliths are typically higher than those inferred for lunar laccoliths, but the typical intrusion depths are comparable.     

The STAGES view of red spirals and dusty red galaxies: mass-dependent quenching of star formation in cluster infall

We investigate the properties of optically passive spirals and dusty red galaxies in the A901/2 cluster complex at redshift ∼0.17 using rest-frame near-ultraviolet–optical spectral energy distributions, 24-μm infrared data and Hubble Space Telescope morphologies from the STAGES data set. The cluster sample is based on COMBO-17 redshifts with an rms precision of  σ _cz ≈ 2000 km s⁻¹  . We find that 'dusty red galaxies' and 'optically passive spirals' in A901/2 are largely the same phenomenon, and that they form stars at a substantial rate, which is only four times lower than that in blue spirals at fixed mass. This star formation is more obscured than in blue galaxies and its optical signatures are weak. They appear predominantly in the stellar mass range of  log  M _*/M_⊙=[10, 11]  where they constitute over half of the star-forming galaxies in the cluster; they are thus a vital ingredient for understanding the overall picture of star formation quenching in clusters. We find that the mean specific star formation rate (SFR) of star-forming galaxies in the cluster is clearly lower than in the field, in contrast to the specific SFR properties of blue galaxies alone, which appear similar in cluster and field. Such a rich red spiral population is best explained if quenching is a slow process and morphological transformation is delayed even more. At  log  M _*/M_⊙ < 10  , such galaxies are rare, suggesting that their quenching is fast and accompanied by morphological change. We note that edge-on spirals play a minor role; despite being dust reddened they form only a small fraction of spirals independent of environment.     

Earth–Moon Weak Stability Boundaries in the restricted three and four body problem

This work deals with the structure of the lunar Weak Stability Boundaries (WSB) in the framework of the restricted three and four body problem. Geometry and properties of the escape trajectories have been studied by changing the spacecraft orbital parameters around the Moon. Results obtained using the algorithm definition of the WSB have been compared with an analytical approximation based on the value of the Jacobi constant. Planar and three-dimensional cases have been studied in both three and four body models and the effects on the WSB structure, due to the presence of the gravitational force of the Sun and the Moon orbital eccentricity, have been investigated. The study of the dynamical evolution of the spacecraft after lunar capture allowed us to find regions of the WSB corresponding to stable and safe orbits, that is orbits that will not impact onto lunar surface after capture. By using a bicircular four body model, then, it has been possible to study low-energy transfer trajectories and results are given in terms of eccentricity, pericenter altitude and inclination of the capture orbit. Equatorial and polar capture orbits have been compared and differences in terms of energy between these two kinds of orbits are shown. Finally, the knowledge of the WSB geometry permitted us to modify the design of the low-energy capture trajectories in order to reach stable capture, which allows orbit circularization using low-thrust propulsion systems.     

Clastic matrix in EH3 chondrites

Abstract— Patches of clastic matrix (15 to 730 μm in size) constitute 4.9 vol% of EH3 Yamato (Y‐) 691 and 11.7 vol% of EH3 Allan Hills (ALH) 81189. Individual patches in Y‐691 consist of 1) ?25 vol% relatively coarse opaque grain fragments and polycrystalline assemblages of kamacite, schreibersite, perryite, troilite (some grains with daubréelite exsolution lamellae), niningerite, oldhamite, and caswellsilverite; 2) ?30 vol% relatively coarse silicate grains including enstatite, albitic plagioclase, silica and diopside; and 3) an inferred fine nebular component (?45 vol%) comprised of submicrometer‐size grains. Clastic matrix patches in ALH 81189 contain relatively coarse grains of opaques (?20 vol%; kamacite, schreibersite, perryite and troilite) and silicates (?30 vol%; enstatite, silica and forsterite) as well as an inferred fine nebular component (?50 vol%). The O‐isotopic composition of clastic matrix in Y‐691 is indistinguishable from that of olivine and pyroxene grains in adjacent chondrules; both sets of objects lie on the terrestrial mass‐fractionation line on the standard three‐isotope graph. Some patches of fine‐grained matrix in Y‐691 have distinguishable bulk concentrations of Na and K, inferred to be inherited from the solar nebula. Some patches in ALH 81189 differ in their bulk concentrations of Ca, Cr, Mn, and Ni. The average compositions of matrix material in Y‐691 and ALH 81189 are similar but not identical‐matrix in ALH 81189 is much richer in Mn (0.23 ± 0.05 versus 0.07 ± 0.02 wt%) and appreciably richer in Ni (0.36 ± 0.10 versus 0.18 ± 0.05 wt%) than matrix in Y‐691. Each of the two whole‐rocks exhibits a petrofabric, probably produced by shock processes on their parent asteroid.     

Isotopic evidence (Sr/Sr, δLi) for alteration of the oceanic crust at deep-rooted mud volcanoes in the Gulf of Cadiz, NE Atlantic Ocean

The chemical and isotopic composition of pore fluids is presented for five deep-rooted mud volcanoes aligned on a transect across the Gulf of Cadiz continental margin at water depths between 350 and 3860 m. Generally decreasing interstitial Li concentrations and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios with increasing distance from shore are attributed to systematically changing fluid sources across the continental margin. Although highest Li concentrations at the near-shore mud volcanoes coincide with high salinities derived from dissolution of halite and late-stage evaporites, clayey, terrigenous sediments are identified as the ultimate Li source to all pore fluids investigated. Light δ⁷Li values, partly close to those of hydrothermal vent fluids (δ⁷Li: +11.9‰), indicate that Li has been mobilized during high-temperature fluid/sediment or fluid/rock interactions in the deep sub-surface. Intense leaching of terrigenous clay has led to radiogenic ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios (0.7106) in pore fluids of the near-shore mud volcanoes. In contrast, non-radiogenic ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios (0.7075) at the distal locations are attributed to admixing of a basement-derived fluid component, carrying an isotopic signature from interaction with the basaltic crust. This inference is substantiated by temperature constraints from Li isotope equilibrium calculations suggesting exchange processes at particularly high temperatures (>200 °C) for the least radiogenic pore fluids of the most distal location.Advective pore fluids in the off-shore reaches of the Gulf of Cadiz are influenced by successive exchange processes with both oceanic crust and terrigenous, fine-grained sediments, resulting in a chemical and isotopic signature similar to that of fluids in near-shore ridge flank hydrothermal systems. This suggests that deep-rooted mud volcanoes in the Gulf of Cadiz represent a fluid pathway intermediate between mid-ocean ridge hydrothermal vent and shallow, marginal cold seep. Due to the thicker sediment coverage and slower fluid advection rates, the overall geochemical signature is shifted towards the sediment-diagenetic signal compared to ridge flank hydrothermal environments.