The challenge to detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems

Future scenarios of the energy system under greenhouse gas emission constraints depict dramatic growth in a range of energy technologies. Technological growth dynamics observed historically provide a useful comparator for these future trajectories. We find that historical time series data reveal a consistent relationship between how much a technology’s cumulative installed capacity grows, and how long this growth takes. This relationship between extent (how much) and duration (for how long) is consistent across both energy supply and end-use technologies, and both established and emerging technologies. We then develop and test an approach for using this historical relationship to assess technological trajectories in future scenarios. Our approach for “learning from the past” contributes to the assessment and verification of integrated assessment and energy-economic models used to generate quantitative scenarios. Using data on power generation technologies from two such models, we also find a consistent extent - duration relationship across both technologies and scenarios. This relationship describes future low carbon technological growth in the power sector which appears to be conservative relative to what has been evidenced historically. Specifically, future extents of capacity growth are comparatively low given the lengthy time duration of that growth. We treat this finding with caution due to the low number of data points. Yet it remains counter-intuitive given the extremely rapid growth rates of certain low carbon technologies under stringent emission constraints. We explore possible reasons for the apparent scenario conservatism, and find parametric or structural conservatism in the underlying models to be one possible explanation.     

Impact of climate change on the hydrogeology of two basins in northern France

This study presents an analysis of climate-change impacts on the water resources of two basins located in northern France, by integrating four sources of uncertainty: climate modelling, hydrological modelling, downscaling methods, and emission scenarios. The analysis focused on the evolution of the water budget, the river discharges and piezometric heads. Seven hydrological models were used, from lumped rainfall-discharge to distributed hydrogeological models, and led to quite different estimates of the water-balance components. One of the hydrological models, CLSM, was found to be unable to simulate the increased water stress and was, thus, considered as an outlier even though it gave fair results for the present day compared to observations. Although there were large differences in the results between the models, there was a marked tendency towards a decrease of the water resource in the rivers and aquifers (on average in 2050 about ?14 % and ?2.5 m, respectively), associated with global warming and a reduction in annual precipitation (on average in 2050 +2.1 K and ?3 %, respectively). The uncertainty associated to climate models was shown to clearly dominate, while the three others were about the same order of magnitude and 3–4 times lower. In terms of impact, the results found in this work are rather different from those obtained in a previous study, even though two of the hydrological models and one of the climate models were used in both studies. This emphasizes the need for a survey of the climatic-change impact on the water resource.     

US institutional pathways to clean coal and shale gas: lessons for China

China's 12th Five-Year Plan (2011–2015) envisages that shale gas and coal will be central to its energy future. However, for China to meet the energy security and climate change objectives set out in its 12th Five-Year Plan it will be reliant on the widespread commercial deployment of two key technologies; hydraulic fracturing combined with horizontal drilling for shale gas, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) for coal. China is moving to acquire these technologies through technology transfer and diffusion from the US, but progress has been slow, and neither is currently available in China on a commercial scale. Drawing on interviews in the US and China, this article argues that China's expectation of technology from the US may well be disappointed because of factors unique to the US institutional environment that have made the development of fracking technology possible and hinder the development of CCS technology at a commercial scale.

Policy relevance

If China is to meet the energy security and climate change objectives set out in its 12th Five-Year Plan it will be reliant on the widespread commercial deployment of fracking and clean coal technologies. While China expects to acquire these technologies via technology transfer and diffusion from the US, progress has been slow. Because of factors unique to the US institutional environment the availability of both technologies on a commercial scale in China is unlikely in the coming years. As a result, Chinese policy makers would be well-advised not to count on these technologies to meet their energy and climate goals.     

10Be content in clasts from fallout suevitic breccia in drill cores from the Bosumtwi impact crater,Ghana: Clues to preimpact target distribution

Rocks from drill cores LB‐07A (crater fill) and LB‐08A (central uplift) into the Bosumtwi impact crater, Ghana, were analyzed for the presence of the cosmogenic radionuclide ¹⁰Be. The aim of the study was to determine the extent to which target rocks of various depths were mixed during the formation of the crater‐filling breccia, and also to detect meteoric water infiltration within the impactite layer. ¹⁰Be abundances above background were found in two (out of 24) samples from the LB‐07A core, and in none of five samples from the LB‐08A core. After excluding other possible explanations for an elevated ¹⁰Be signal, we conclude that it is most probably due to a preimpact origin of those clasts from target rocks close to the surface. Our results suggest that in‐crater breccias were well mixed during the impact cratering process. In addition, the lack of a ¹⁰Be signal within the rocks located very close to the lake sediment–impactite boundary suggests that infiltration of meteoric water below the postimpact crater floor was limited. This may suggest that the infiltration of the meteoric water within the crater takes place not through the aerial pore‐space, but rather through a localized system of fractures.     

Establishing the link between the Chesapeake Bay impact structure and the North American tektite strewn field: The Sr‐Nd isotopic evidence

Abstract— The Chesapeake Bay impact structure, which is about 35 Ma old, has previously been proposed as the possible source crater of the North American tektites (NAT). Here we report major and trace element data as well as the first Sr‐Nd isotope data for drill core and outcrop samples of target lithologies, crater fill breccias, and post‐impact sediments of the Chesapeake Bay impact structure. The unconsolidated sediments, Cretaceous to middle Eocene in age, have ?_Sr^{t = 35.7 Ma} of +54 to +272, and ?_Nd^{t = 35.7 Ma} ranging from ?6.5 to ?10.8; one sample from the granitic basement with a T^Nd_CHUR model age of 1.36 Ga yielded an ?_Sr^{t = 35.7 Ma} of +188 and an ?_Nd^{t = 35.7 Ma} of ?5.7. The Exmore breccia (crater fill) can be explained as a mix of the measured target sediments and the granite, plus an as‐yet undetermined component. The post‐impact sediments of the Chickahominy formation have slightly higher T^Nd_CHUR model ages of about 1.55 Ga, indicating a contribution of some older materials. Newly analyzed bediasites have the following isotope parameters: +104 to +119 (?_Sr^{t = 35.7 Ma}), ?5.7 (?_Nd^{t = 35.7 Ma}), 0.47 Ga (T^Sr_UR), and 1.15 Ga (T^Nd_CHUR), which is in excellent agreement with previously published data for samples of the NAT strewn field. Target rocks with highly radiogenic Sr isotopic composition, as required for explaining the isotopic characteristics of Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) site 612 tektites, were not among the analyzed sample suite. Based on the new isotope data, we exclude any relation between the NA tektites and the Popigai impact crater, although they have identical ages within 2s? errors. The Chesapeake Bay structure, however, is now clearly constrained as the source crater for the North American tektites, although the present data set obviously does not include all target lithologies that have contributed to the composition of the tektites.     

Heating rate profiles in galaxy clusters

In recent years, evidence has accumulated suggesting that the gas in galaxy clusters is heated by non-gravitational processes. Here, we calculate the heating rates required to maintain a physically motivated mass flow rate, in a sample of seven galaxy clusters. We employ the spectroscopic mass deposition rates as an observational input along with temperature and density data for each cluster. On energetic grounds, we find that thermal conduction could provide the necessary heating for A2199, Perseus, A1795 and A478. However, the suppression factor of the classical Spitzer value is a different function of radius for each cluster. Based on the observations of plasma bubbles, we also calculate the duty cycles for each active galactic nucleus (AGN), in the absence of thermal conduction, which can provide the required energy input. With the exception of Hydra-A, it appears that each of the other AGNs in our sample requires duty cycles of roughly 10⁶–10⁷ yr to provide their steady-state heating requirements. If these duty cycles are unrealistic, this may imply that many galaxy clusters must be heated by very powerful Hydra-A type events interspersed between more frequent smaller scale outbursts. The suppression factors for the thermal conductivity required for combined heating by AGN and thermal conduction are generally acceptable. However, these suppression factors still require 'fine-tuning' of the thermal conductivity as a function of radius. As a consequence of this work, we present the AGN duty cycle as a cooling flow diagnostic.     

Potassium isotopic composition of Australasian tektites

Abstract— We have analyzed the potassium isotopic composition of four tektites from the Australasian strewn field, spanning a wide diversity of thermal histories, inferred from textures and volatile element contents. Our results indicate no isotopic differences between tektites and terrestrial crustal rocks, placing stringent limits of ≤2% loss of potassium during the brief duration of high temperature heating experienced by these samples. This confirms that the chemical composition of tektites is entirely a reflection of source rock composition and has not been modified by the tektiteforming process for elements less volatile than potassium. Losses of more volatile components, e.g., the halogens and water, are not precluded by the present data. Coupling a radiative cooling temperature‐time path with potassium vapor pressure data indicates that tektite melt drops are not likely to develop bulk elemental fractionation during the brief heating episodes of tektites for peak temperatures <2273 K. The extent of K isotopic fractionation is independent of droplet size but dependent on peak heating temperature. The exact peak temperature depends on the choice of vapor pressure data used for K, which need to be better constrained.