A model for the Am (Km) planetary geomagnetic activity index and application to prediction

We studied the existence of dynamical stochastic relations in the evolution of the am index. A first analysis of the autocorrelation functions showed evidence of several seasonalities. We first used linear (ARMA) models, and it was found that these do not account for the whole internal dynamics of the data series. We then used various non-linear models to provide a better fit to reality. The forecast performances of the non-linear models are not significantly different from those of the linear model. We give a tentative explanation for the failure of the non-linear predictions. Finally, ARCH models were used in order to take into account the fact that the confidence interval for the predicted value depends on past observations.     

Foliation fields and 3D cartography in geology: Principles of a method based on potential interpolation

A modeling method that takes into account known points on a geological interface and plane orientation data such as stratification or foliation planes is described and tested. The orientations data do not necessarily belong to one of the interfaces but are assumed to sample the main anisotropy of a geological formation as in current geological situations. The problem is to determine the surfaces which pass through the known points on interfaces and which are compatible with the orientation data. The method is based on the interpolation of a scalar field defined in the space the gradient in which is orthogonal to the orientations, given that some points have the same but unknown scalar value (points of the same interface), and that scalar gradient is known on the other points (foliations). The modeled interfaces are represented as isovalues of the interpolated field. Preliminary two-dimensional tests carried-out with different covariance models demonstrate the validity of the method, which is easily transposable in three dimensions.     

Optimizing a layered and laterally constrained 2D inversion of resistivity data using Broyden's update and 1D derivatives

Dense profile-oriented resistivity data allows for 2D and 3D inversions. However, huge amounts of data make it practically impossible to do full 2D or 3D inversions on a routine basis. Therefore, a number of approximations have been suggested over the years to speed up computations. We suggest using a combination of Broyden's update on the Jacobian matrix with derivatives calculated using a 1D formulation on a parameterized 2D model of locally 1D layered models. The approximations bring down the effective number of 2D forward responses to a minimum, which again gives us the ability to invert very large sections. Broyden's update is not as useful with a parameterized problem as is the case with a smooth minimum structure problem that has been the usual application. 1D derivatives, however, seem to be very effective when initiating a full 2D solution with Broyden's update. We compare the different methods using two different kinds of data on two synthetic models and on two field examples. The most effective and reliable optimization combines 1D derivatives with a full 2D solution and Broyden's update. When using Broyden's update the Jacobian matrix needs to be reset every once in a while. We do this whenever the difference in data residual from the previous iteration is less than 5%. This combined inversion method reduces the computation time approximately a factor of 3 without losing model resolution.     

Researching the South African tourism and development nexus

Under apartheid, tourism was essentially anti-developmental in focus and tourism research largely centred on the recreation of white South Africans. Since the 1994 democratic transition tourism has become recognised as an increasingly important sector for South Africa's economy and for achieving the government's goals for reconstruction and development. In this paper a review and critical analysis is presented of the changing directions and foci of tourism scholarship in South Africa. It is shown that South African scholars are beginning to respond to the challenges posed by tourism as a developmental focus. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

L'accident du Toulourenc : une limite tectonique entre la plate-forme provençale et le Bassin vocontien à l'Aptien–Albien (SE France)

The WNW–ESE trending Toulourenc Fault Zone (TFZ) is the western segment of the major Ventoux–Lure Fault Zone, which separates the Provençal platform from the Baronnies Vocontian Basin. The TFZ was subject to polyphased Mid-Cretaceous movements, during the Early Aptian and Middle–Late Albian times. The latter faulting episode generated conglomerates and olistoliths resulting from dismantled faultscarps cutting Barremian–Bedoulian limestones. The deformation is related to compressional wrench faulting (NE–SW sinistral faults; dextral component for the TFZ). It induced the uplift of the northwestern corner of the platform, as indicated by a mid-Cretaceous hiatus (Early Aptian pro parte to Early Albian) narrowly delimited in space. The opening of submeridian grabens within the platform favoured the northward transit of channelised coarse-grained Albian sands originating from a southern area. To cite this article: C. Montenat et al., C. R. Geoscience 336 (2004).