The analysis of irregularly observed stochastic astronomical time-series – I. Basics of linear stochastic differential equations

The theory of low-order linear stochastic differential equations is reviewed. Solutions to these equations give the continuous time analogues of discrete time autoregressive time-series. Explicit forms for the power spectra and covariance functions of first- and second-order forms are given. A conceptually simple method is described for fitting continuous time autoregressive models to data. Formulae giving the standard errors of the parameter estimates are derived. Simulated data are used to verify the performance of the methods. Irregularly spaced observations of the two hydrogen-deficient stars FQ Aqr and NO Ser are analysed. In the case of FQ Aqr the best-fitting model is of second order, and describes a quasi-periodicity of about 20 d with an e-folding time of 3.7 d. The NO Ser data are best fitted by a first-order model with an e-folding time of 7.2 d.     

Explicit Adaptive Symplectic (Easy) Integrators: A Scaling Invariant Generalisation of the Levi-Civitaand KS Regularisations

We present a generalisation of the Levi-Civita and Kustaanheimo-Stiefel regularisation. This allows the use of more general time rescalings. In particular, it is possible to find a regularisation which removes the singularity of the equations and preserves scaling invariance. In addition, these equations can, in certain cases, be integrated with explicit symplectic Runge-Kutta-Nyström methods. The combination of both techniques gives an explicit adaptive symplectic (EASY) integrator. We apply those methods to some perturbations of the Kepler problem and illustrate, by means of some numerical examples, when scaling invariant regularisations are more efficient that the LC/KS regularisation.     

Future Benefits of Time-Varying Gravity Missions to Ocean Circulation Studies

A summary is offered of the potential benefits of future measurements of temporal variations in gravity for the understanding of ocean dynamics. Two types of process, and corresponding amplitudes are discussed: ocean basin scale pressure changes, with a corresponding amplitude of order 1 cm of water, or 1 mm of geoid height, and changes in along-slope pressure gradient, at cross-slope length scales corresponding to topographic slopes, with a corresponding amplitude of order 1 mm of water, or a maximum of about 0.01 mm of geoid. The former is feasible with current technology and would provide unprecedented information about abyssal ocean dynamics associated with heat transport and climate. The latter would be a considerable challenge to any foreseeable technology, but would provide an exceptionally clear, quantitative window on the dynamics of abyssal ocean currents, and strong constraints on ocean models. Both options would be limited by the aliassing effect of rapid mass movements in the earth system, and it is recommended that any future mission take this error source explicitly into account at the design stage. For basin-scale oceanography this might involve a higher orbit than GRACE or GOCE, and the advantages of exact-repeat orbits and multiple missions should be considered.     

A Computationally Efficient,Time-Dependent Model of the Solar Wind for Use as a Surrogate to Three-Dimensional Numerical Magnetohydrodynamic Simulations

Solar radiation variability spans a wide range in time, ranging from seconds to decadal and longer. The nearly 40 years of measurements of solar irradiance from space established that the total solar irradiance varies by \(\approx 0.1\%\) in phase with the Sun’s magnetic cycle. Specific intervals of the solar spectrum, e.g., ultraviolet (UV), vary by orders of magnitude more. These variations can affect the Earth’s climate in a complex non-linear way. Specifically, some of the processes of interaction between solar UV radiation and the Earth’s atmosphere involve threshold processes and do not require a detailed reconstruction of the solar spectrum. For this reason a spectral UV index based on the (FUV-MUV) color has been recently introduced. This color is calculated using SORCE SOLSTICE integrated fluxes in the FUV and MUV bands. We present in this work the reconstructions of the solar (FUV-MUV) color and Ca ii K and Mg ii indices, from 1749–2015, using a semi-empirical approach based on the reconstruction of the area coverage of different solar magnetic features, i.e., sunspot, faculae and network. We remark that our results are in noteworthy agreement with latest solar UV proxy reconstructions that exploit more sophisticated techniques requiring historical full-disk observations. This makes us confident that our technique can represent an alternative approach which can complement classical solar reconstruction efforts. Moreover, this technique, based on broad-band observations, can be utilized to estimate the activity on Sun-like stars, that cannot be resolved spatially, hosting extra-solar planetary systems.

     

Coronal Holes and Open Magnetic Flux over Cycles 23 and 24

As the observational signature of the footprints of solar magnetic field lines open into the heliosphere, coronal holes provide a critical measure of the structure and evolution of these lines. Using a combination of Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (SOHO/EIT), Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (SDO/AIA), and Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory/Extreme Ultraviolet Imager (STEREO/EUVI A/B) extreme ultraviolet (EUV) observations spanning 1996?–?2015 (nearly two solar cycles), coronal holes are automatically detected and characterized. Coronal hole area distributions show distinct behavior in latitude, defining the domain of polar and low-latitude coronal holes. The northern and southern polar regions show a clear asymmetry, with a lag between hemispheres in the appearance and disappearance of polar coronal holes.