A Bayesian approach to calibrating apatite fission track annealing models for laboratory and geological timescales

We present a new approach for modelling annealing of fission tracks in apatite, aiming to address various problems with existing models. We cast the model in a fully Bayesian context, which allows us explicitly to deal with data and parameter uncertainties and correlations, and also to deal with the predictive uncertainties. We focus on a well-known annealing algorithm [Laslett, G.M., Green, P.F., Duddy, I.R., Gleadow. A.J.W., 1987. Thermal annealing of fission tracks in apatite. 2. A quantitative-analysis. Chem. Geol., 65 (1), 1-13], and build a hierachical Bayesian model to incorporate both laboratory and geological timescale data as direct constraints. Relative to the original model calibration, we find a better (in terms of likelihood) model conditioned just on the reported laboratory data. We then include the uncertainty on the temperatures recorded during the laboratory annealing experiments. We again find a better model, but the predictive uncertainty when extrapolated to geological timescales is increased due to the uncertainty on the laboratory temperatures. Finally, we explictly include a data set [Vrolijk, P., Donelick, R.A., Quenq, J., Cloos. M., 1992. Testing models of fission track annealing in apatite in a simple thermal setting: site 800, leg 129. In: Larson, R., Lancelet, Y. (Eds.), Proceedings of the Ocean Drilling Program, Scientific Results, vol. 129, pp. 169-176] which provides low-temperature geological timescale constraints for the model calibration. When combined with the laboratory data, we find a model which satisfies both the low-temperature and high-temperature geological timescale benchmarks, although the fit to the original laboratory data is degraded. However, when extrapolated to geological timescales, this combined model significantly reduces the well-known rapid recent cooling artifact found in many published thermal models for geological samples.     

NAOMI/OASIS on-sky performance

NAOMI is the AO system of the 4.2-m William Herschel Telescope on La Palma. It delivers an AO-corrected image to a lenslet array at the focal plane of the optical integral-field spectrograph OASIS. The resulting 1100 spectra are imaged onto a high-QE, low-fringing MITLL3 CCD. A range of spectroscopic and spatial (0.09–0.42 arcsec/lenslet) configurations is available. At wavelength  0.7 μm, the NAOMI-corrected FWHM is typically half that of the natural seeing. Scheduled OASIS observing began in semester 2004B, with 9 programmes awarded a total of 26 nights during the first year of operation. A Rayleigh laser guide star is under development, with first light expected summer 2006. In conjunction with NAOMI/OASIS, this will provide a unique facility: AO-corrected optical integral-field spectroscopy anywhere on the northern sky.     

Confidence intervals for the correlation between the gamma-ray burst peak energy and the associated supernova peak brightness

A strong correlation between the gamma-ray burster peak energy and the peak luminosity of the associated supernova was discovered by Li for four GRBs. Despite the fact that the formal significance level of the correlation is 0.3 per cent, the smallness of the data set requires careful further evaluation of the result. Subject to the assumption that the data are bivariate Gaussian, a 95 per cent confidence interval of  (−0.9972, 0.02)  for the correlation is derived. Using data from the literature, it is shown that the distribution of known peak GRB energies is not Gaussian if X-ray flashes are included in the sample. This leads to a proposed alternative to the bivariate Gaussian model, which entails describing the dependence between the two variables by a Gaussian copula. The copula is still characterized by a correlation coefficient. The Bayesian posterior distribution of the correlation coefficient is evaluated using a Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The mean values of the posterior distributions range from −0.33 to about zero, depending on the specifics of the supernova (SN) peak brightness distribution. The implication is that the existing data favour a modest correlation between the GRB peak energy and the SN peak brightness; confidence intervals are very wide and include zero.     

The Southern Westerlies during the last glacial maximum in PMIP2 simulations

The Southern Hemisphere westerly winds are an important component of the climate system at hemispheric and global scales. Variations in their intensity and latitudinal position through an ice-age cycle have been proposed as important drivers of global climate change due to their influence on deep-ocean circulation and changes in atmospheric CO₂. The position, intensity, and associated climatology of the southern westerlies during the last glacial maximum (LGM), however, is still poorly understood from empirical and modelling standpoints. Here we analyse the behaviour of the southern westerlies during the LGM using four coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations carried out by the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PMIP2). We analysed the atmospheric circulation by direct inspection of the winds and by using a cyclone tracking software to indicate storm tracks. The models suggest that changes were most significant during winter and over the Pacific ocean. For this season and region, three out four models indicate decreased wind intensities at the near surface as well as in the upper troposphere. Although the LGM atmosphere is colder and the equator to pole surface temperature gradient generally increases, the tropospheric temperature gradients actually decrease, explaining the weaker circulation. We evaluated the atmospheric influence on the Southern Ocean by examining the effect of wind stress on the Ekman pumping. Again, three of the models indicate decreased upwelling in a latitudinal band over the Southern Ocean. All models indicate a drier LGM than at present with a clear decrease in precipitation south of 40°S over the oceans. We identify important differences in precipitation anomalies over the land masses at regional scale, including a drier climate over New Zealand and wetter over NW Patagonia.     

A comprehensive numerical simulation of Io’s sublimation-driven atmosphere

Io’s sublimation-driven atmosphere is modeled using the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method. These rarefied gas dynamics simulations improve upon earlier models by using a three-dimensional domain encompassing the entire planet computed in parallel. The effects of plasma heating, planetary rotation, inhomogeneous surface frost, molecular residence time of SO₂ on the exposed (non-volatile) rocky surface, and surface temperature distribution are investigated. Circumplanetary flow is predicted to develop from the warm dayside toward the cooler nightside. Io’s rotation leads to a highly asymmetric frost surface temperature distribution (due to the frost’s high thermal inertia) which results in circumplanetary flow that is not axi-symmetric about the subsolar point. The non-equilibrium thermal structure of the atmosphere, specifically vibrational and rotational temperatures, is also examined. Plasma heating is found to significantly inflate the atmosphere on both the dayside and nightside. The plasma energy flux causes high temperatures at high altitudes but plasma energy depletion through the dense gas column above the warmest frost permits gas temperatures cooler than the surface at low altitudes. A frost map (Douté, S., Schmitt, B., Lopes-Gautier, R., Carlson, R., Soderblom, L., Shirley, J., and the Galileo NIMS Team [2001]. Icarus 149, 107-132) is used to control the sublimated flux of SO₂ which can result in inhomogeneous column densities that vary by nearly a factor of four for the same surface temperature. A short residence time for SO₂ molecules on the “rock” component is found to smooth lateral atmospheric inhomogeneities caused by variations in the surface frost distribution, creating an atmosphere that looks nearly identical to one with uniform frost coverage. A longer residence time is found to agree better with mid-infrared observations (Spencer, J.R., Lellouch, E., Richter, M.J., López-Valverde, M.A., Jessup, K.L, Greathouse, T.K., Flaud, J. [2005]. Icarus 176, 283-304) and reproduce the observed anti-jovian/sub-jovian column density asymmetry. The computed peak dayside column density for Io assuming a surface frost temperature of 115 K agrees with those suggested by Lyman-α observations (Feaga, L.M., McGrath, M., Feldman, P.D. [2009]. Icarus 201, 570-584). On the other hand, the peak dayside column density at 120 K is a factor of five larger and is higher than the upper range of observations (Jessup, K.L., Spencer, J.R., Ballester, G.E., Howell, R.R., Roesler, F., Vigel, M., Yelle, R. [2004]. Icarus 169, 197-215; Spencer et al., 2005).     

The impact of perturbations to ocean-model parameters on climate and climate change in a coupled model

Assessments of the impacts of uncertainties in parameters on mean climate and climate change in complex climate models have, to date, largely focussed on perturbations to parameters in the atmosphere component of the model. Here we expand on a previously published study which found the global impacts of perturbed ocean parameters on the rate of transient climate change to be small compared to perturbed atmosphere parameters. By separating the climate-change-induced ocean vertical heat transport in each perturbed member into components associated with the resolved flow and each parameterisation scheme, we show that variations in global mean heat uptake in different perturbed versions are an order of magnitude smaller than the average heat uptake. The lack of impact of the perturbations is attributed to (1) the relatively small impact of the perturbation on the direct vertical heat transport associated with the perturbed process and (2) a compensation between those direct changes and indirect changes in heat transport from other processes. Interactions between processes and changes appear to combine in complex ways to limit ensemble spread and uncertainty in the rate of warming. We also investigate regional impacts of the perturbations that may be important for climate change predictions. We find variations across the ensemble that are significant when measured against natural variability. In terms of the experimental set-up used here (models without flux adjustments) we conclude that perturbed physics ensembles with ocean parameter perturbations are an important component of any probabilistic estimate of future climate change, despite the low spread in global mean quantities. Hence, careful consideration should be given to assessing uncertainty in ocean processes in future probabilistic assessments of regional climate change.     

Spatial delineation of groundwater–surface water interactions through intensive in‐stream profiling

The dominance of ‘old’ pre‐event water in headwater storm runoff has been recorded in numerous upland catchment studies; however, the mechanisms by which this pre‐event water enters the stream channel are poorly understood. Understanding these processes is fundamental to determining the controls on surface water quality and associated impacts on stream ecology. Previous studies in the upland forested catchment of the Afon Hafren (River Severn) at Plynlimon, mid‐Wales, identified an active bedrock groundwater system that was discharging into the stream channel during storm response. Detailed analysis showed that these discharges were small and could not account for the majority of pre‐event storm water response identified at this site; pre‐event storm runoff had to be sourced predominantly from further upstream. An intensive stream survey was used to determine the spatial nature of groundwater–surface water (GW–SW) interactions in the Hafren Catchment. Detailed physico‐chemical in‐stream profiling identified a marked change in water quality indicating a significant discrete point of bedrock groundwater discharge upstream of the Hafren Transect study site. The in‐stream profiling showed the importance of high spatial resolution sampling as a key to understanding processes of GW–SW interaction and how quick and cost‐effective measurements of specific electrical conductance of stream waters could be used to highlight in‐stream heterogeneity. This approach is recommended for use in headwater catchments for initial characterisation of the stream channel in order to better locate instrumentation and to determine more effective targeted sampling protocols in upland catchment research. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Merging chironomid training sets: implications for palaeoclimate reconstructions

Icelandic and Norwegian chironomid calibration or training sets were merged to investigate whether a larger combined training set would be useful to apply to subfossil chironomid data from Iceland for periods such as the early Holocene, the Holocene Thermal Maximum and the Little Ice Age, when temperatures can be expected to be outside the current temperature range of the Icelandic training set. Following taxonomic harmonisation, the Icelandic and Norwegian data sets were compared before being merged to form a combined Norwegian-Icelandic training set. Analyses showed that it was biologically and statistically valid to merge the two data sets. The resulting combined inference model for mean July air temperature had improved performance statistics (r²_jack = 0.87; RMSEP_jack = 1.13) when compared to the best performing Icelandic model (r²_jack = 0.61; RMSEP_jack = 0.83), due to the longer environmental gradient covered (Icelandic 6–11 °C; combined 3.5–16 °C), and to the increased number of samples (Icelandic = 53 lakes; combined = 207 lakes) and taxa (Icelandic = 47 taxa; combined = 133 taxa) present within the combined training set. The inference models were applied to an early Holocene chironomid sequence from Vatnamýri, north Iceland, and a 450-year recent record from Myfluguvatn, north-west Iceland, to compare the reconstructions produced. The various inference models produced similar trends and patterns of temperature reconstruction, but the inference model based on the combined training set produced a larger range of reconstructed temperatures than the Icelandic model. It was found that different inference models produced more variation in the reconstruction than when different training sets were used. A comparison of the Myfluguvatn reconstructions with meteorological observations showed that the combined Norwegian–Icelandic inference model produced more reliable results than the Icelandic or Norwegian inference models alone.     

MegaZ-LRG: a photometric redshift catalogue of one million SDSS luminous red galaxies

We describe the construction of MegaZ-LRG, a photometric redshift catalogue of over one million luminous red galaxies (LRGs) in the redshift range  0.4 < z < 0.7  with limiting magnitude   i < 20  . The catalogue is selected from the imaging data of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release 4. The 2dF-SDSS LRG and Quasar (2SLAQ) spectroscopic redshift catalogue of 13 000 intermediate-redshift LRGs provides a photometric redshift training set, allowing use of ann z, a neural network-based photometric-redshift estimator. The rms photometric redshift accuracy obtained for an evaluation set selected from the 2SLAQ sample is  σ _z = 0.049  averaged over all galaxies, and  σ _z = 0.040  for a brighter subsample  ( i < 19.0)  . The catalogue is expected to contain ∼5 per cent stellar contamination. The ann z code is used to compute a refined star/galaxy probability based on a range of photometric parameters; this allows the contamination fraction to be reduced to 2 per cent with negligible loss of genuine galaxies. The MegaZ-LRG catalogue is publicly available on the World Wide Web from http://www.2slaq.info .     

Evaluation of image-based multibeam sonar backscatter classification for benthic habitat discrimination and mapping at Stanton Banks,UK

In recent years, efforts have increased to develop quantitative, computer-directed methods for segmentation of multibeam (MBES) backscatter data. This study utilises MBES backscatter data acquired at Stanton Banks (UK) and subsequently processed through the QTC-Multiview software environment in a bid to evaluate the program's ability to perform unsupervised classification. Statistical comparison with ground-truth data (grab, stills and video) enabled cross validation of acoustic segmentation and biological assemblages observed at the site. 132 unspecified variables were extracted from user-specified rectangular patches of the backscatter image, reduced to three vectors by PCA, then clustered and classified by the software. Multivariate analyses of ground-truth data were conducted on 75 stills images and 51 grab samples. Video footage coincident with the stills was divided into 30 s segments and coded by dominant substrate and species. Cross tabulation determined the interrelationship between software classifications, multivariate analysis of the biological assemblages and coded video segments. Multiview optimally identified 19 classes using the automated clustering engine. These were revised to 6 habitats a posteriori, using combined analysis of ground-truth data and Multiview data products. These habitats broadly correspond to major physiographic provinces within the region. Multivariate statistical analysis reveals low levels of assemblage similarity (<35%) for samples occurring within Multiview classes, irrespective of the mode of acquisition. Coded video data is more spatially appropriate than the other methods of ground-truthing investigated, although it is less well suited to the extraction of truly quantitative data. Multivariate analysis indicates assemblages within physiographically distinct Multiview classes have a low degree of biological similarity, supporting the notion that abiotic proxies may be contraindicative of benthic assemblage variations. QTC-Multiview performs well as a mechanism for computer-assisted segmentation of MBES backscatter imagery into acoustic provinces; however a degree of caution is required prior to ascribing ecological significance to these classifications.