Projections of hydrology in the Tocantins-Araguaia Basin,Brazil: uncertainty assessment using the CMIP5 ensemble

ABSTRACT

A semi-distributed hydrological model is developed, calibrated and validated against unregulated river discharge from the Tocantins-Araguaia River Basin, northern Brazil. Climate change impacts are simulated using projections from the 41 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models for the period 2071–2100 under the RCP4.5 scenario. Scenario results are compared to a 1971–2000 base line. Most climate models suggest declines in mean annual discharge although some predict increases. A large proportion suggest that the dry season experiences large declines in discharge, especially during the transition to the rising water period. Most models (>75%) suggest declines in annual minimum flows. This may have major implications for both current and planned hydropower schemes. There is greater uncertainty in projected changes in wet season and annual maximum discharges. Two techniques are investigated to reduce uncertainty in projections, but neither is able to provide more confidence in the simulated changes in discharge.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Associate editor F. Hattermann     

The radiation environment in L-2 orbit: implications on the non-X-ray background of the eROSITA pn-CCD cameras

The pn-CCD cameras at the focal plane of the eROSITA space observatory will be the first X-ray (0.2?C12?keV) detector to operate in a L-2 orbit. Therefore, no direct information of instrumental non X-ray background (NXB) is available to make predictions for eROSITA. Since, in general, the instrumental NXB experienced in orbit has a major impact on the overall sensitivity of the cameras, we investigated and modeled the L-2 radiation environment and its interaction with the eROSITA mass distribution and cameras, in order to quantify the expected pn-CCD NXB level. We obtain an average value of NXB ??25% lower than that observed by the pn-CCDs on-board the XMM-Newton satellite, which is placed in a Highly Elliptical Orbit (HEO). We discuss this result in light of the differences between the L-2 and HEO space environments.     

The evolving narrative of the Darfur conflict as represented in <Emphasis Type="Italic">The New York Times</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">The Washington Post</Emphasis>, 2003–2009

News media influence local to global interactions between people, societies, and governments by producing place images. Representations of Africa in Western news media are heavily imbued with colonialist notions of cultural geography. In particular, Western news media have represented conflicts in Africa as ‘tribal’, a trope that erases geographic and historical context, and discourages actions that could prevent or reduce violent conflict. To determine if ‘tribalism’ remains important in coverage of African conflict, we use framing analysis to evaluate news on Sudan’s Darfur region in The New York Times and The Washington Post during 2003–2009. We find that these newspapers predictably relied on stereotypes related to tribalism to simplify Darfur’s geography and make the conflict meaningful to intended readers. Tribal portrayal of African war is inherently political, and, problematically, neither newspaper recognized that their use of the tribal narrative was parallel to the views of both the Sudanese government and external observers that challenged the actions of the Sudanese government. However, we also found that stereotypical representations became less prominent over time, apparently because reporters found that the initial, simplistic framing of the conflict did not match their encounters with geographic reality. We emphasize the decline in stereotypical tropes, because this suggests behind-the-scenes negotiation about representations in these news organizations. Recognizing voices that challenge stereotypical portrayals is necessary to developing place images that are geographically more accurate.     

Market instruments and the neoliberalisation of land management in rural Australia

Increasing penetration by the market into the governing of agri-environments, and the use of market-oriented approaches in an attempt to produce more sustainable outcomes, is a characteristic feature of what scholars have called the ‘neoliberalisation of nature’. While accepting that neoliberal forms of governing tend to extend market relations into new domains, a number of scholars have argued that they may at the same time create spaces of resistance, open up progressive political possibilities, or incorporate alternative rationalities of governing. This literature has so far focused primarily on the policy and/or programme level with limited connection made to the growing body of research that explores landholder responses to specific market instruments. We address this gap by focusing on a market instrument – Wimmera Habitat Tender – in the State of Victoria, Australia, which aims to provide incentives for farmers in managing native vegetation. This case study explores how a specific tender-based market instrument seeks to construct natural resource managers as neoliberal subjects, as well as the complex ways in which farmers contest or resist the neoliberal governing of their agri-environmental practices. Through our analysis we contend that closer scrutiny of how the techniques underpinning market-based environmental instruments are taken up or resisted contributes to a more robust understanding of the environmental possibilities created by market instruments, as well as the challenges involved in attempts to neoliberalise nature.     

东南极拉斯曼丘陵泥质麻粒岩变质作用演化

普里兹湾拉斯曼丘陵代表了东南极一条重要的早古生代的～530Ma泛非期(Pan-African)高级构造活动带。然而,该区早期的晚元古代的～1000Ma格林维尔期(Grenvellian)高级变质作用的演化历史至今仍有争论。该区呈透镜状产出的泥质麻粒岩峰期矿物组合(M1)为石榴石+堇青石+斜方辉石+钾长石+石英,峰期石榴石变斑晶发育堇青石或堇青石+斜方辉石反应边(M2)。利用Thermocalc程序在KFMASH模式体系对该泥质麻粒岩进行的定量模拟表明,其峰期矿物组合是由反应石榴石+黑云母+石英=堇青石+斜方辉石+钾长石+熔体形成的。利用Themocalc平均P-T计算方法获得峰期M1变质P-T条件为～0.9GPa和～900℃,而叠加的M2组合反映了一个减压冷却的过程,其变质P-T条件为～0.7GPa和800～850℃。结合已有的年代学数据,认为该区泥质麻粒岩的峰期M1矿物组合反映晚元古代(～1000Ma)格林维尔期挤压D1构造事件,而叠加的M2矿物组合与M3蠕虫状结构则形成于早古生代泛非期(～530Ma)D2～D3高级扭压剪切构造期间。该扭压事件导致了面状高低应变带的发育以及进步花岗岩和伟晶岩的侵入。     

A Proposal for the Publication of Geochemical Data in the Scientific Literature

A proposal is set out for the information and details that should accompany the publication of geochemical data in the research literature. This proposal is based on the principle that sufficient detail must be included both to allow independent replication of the results and for reviewers to confirm that data are fit‐for‐purpose in supporting the way in which they have been interpreted. In particular, it is recommended that all analytical measurements should be accompanied by an estimate of uncertainty that includes both field sampling and laboratory contributions together with a statement that summarises the way published data conform to the principles of traceability.     

Centrifuge modelling of deformation of a multi-layered sequence over a ductile substrate: 1. Style and 4D geometry of active cover folds during layer-parallel shortening

Centrifuge analogue modelling illustrates the progressive development of active folds in multilayers upon a ductile substrate during layer-parallel shortening. Models simulate folding of a mechanically stratified sedimentary sequence upon migmatitic gneisses in a large hot orogen, or upon a thick basal evaporite ± shale sequence in deeper levels of fold belts. The absence of a weak low-viscosity and low-density layer at the interface promotes infolding of the cover sequence and ductile substrate, whereas a planar upper surface to the basal ductile substrate is preserved when it is present. Whilst fold style, wavelength, and deformation of the interface with the ductile substrate differ depending on whether a low-viscosity and low-density layer is present at the base of the cover sequence, there is no marked systematic curvature of fold axes as seen in previous sandbox models for fault-bend or fault propagation folding during bulk shortening. Bulk shortening of a layered sequence with relatively thick individual layers above a ductile substrate promotes a regular and upright train of buckle folds, whereas thinner layers promote a more irregular distribution of buckle folds with variable vergence, style, and amplitude. Buckle folds above a ductile substrate progressively develop during bulk shortening from open and upright, to angular and tight, and may further develop into cuspate structures above relatively weak horizons. Relatively thick weak horizons within the layered sequence during bulk shortening interrupt regular fold patterns up structural section and allow out-of-phase folds to develop above and below the weak horizon.     

Food Web Structure and Trophic Control in Central Puget Sound

We developed a food web model of central Puget Sound to provide science-based support for ecosystem-based management and to refine our understanding of bottom-up and top-down trophic forcing. Phytoplankton accounted for a large fraction of total biomass, total throughput, and caused considerable bottom-up effects in most functional groups in a dynamic simulation fit to time series data from 1981 to 2000. Top-down control was most apparent in the case of bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus), which exhibited keystone tendencies and appeared capable of causing trophic cascades. Increasing top-down control in several predator–prey relationships improved model fits to time series data from 1981 to 2000, but not as much as introducing non-equilibrium dynamics (biomass accumulation terms) to several key vertebrates. Fishing had little effect on system dynamics. Our model appears well-suited for addressing strategic, scenario-based questions of how the community as a whole will respond to management actions.     

Observation of Conditions Preceding Peak Indoor Air Volatile Organic Compound Concentrations in Vapor Intrusion Studies

Temporal and spatial variability of indoor air volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations can complicate vapor intrusion (VI) assessment and decision-making. Indicators and tracers (I&T) of VI, such as differential temperature, differential pressure, and indoor radon concentration, are low-cost lines of evidence to support sampling scheduling and interpretation of indoor air VOC sampling results. This study compares peak indoor air chlorinated VOC concentrations and I&T conditions before and during those peak events at five VI sites. The sites differ geographically and in their VI conceptual site models (CSM). Relative to site-specific baseline values, the results show that cold or falling outdoor temperatures, rising cross slab differential pressures, and increasing indoor radon concentrations can predict peak VOC concentrations. However, cold outdoor air temperature was not useful at one site where elevated shallow soil temperature was a better predictor. Correlations of peak VOC concentrations to elevated or rising barometric pressure and low wind speed were also observed with some exceptions. This study shows how the independent variables that control or predict peak indoor air VOC concentrations are specific to building types, climates, and VI CSMs. More I&T measurements at VI sites are needed to identify scenario-specific baseline and peak related I&T conditions to improve decision-making.