Towards quantitative ecological risk assessment of elevated carbon dioxide levels in the marine environment

The environmental impact of elevated carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels has become of more interest in recent years. This, in relation to globally rising CO₂ levels and related considerations of geological CO₂ storage as a mitigating measure. In the present study effect data from literature were collected in order to conduct a marine ecological risk assessment of elevated CO₂ levels, using a Species Sensitivity Distribution (SSD). It became evident that information currently available from the literature is mostly insufficient for such a quantitative approach. Most studies focus on effects of expected future CO₂ levels, testing only one or two elevated concentrations. A full dose-response relationship, a uniform measure of exposure, and standardized test protocols are essential for conducting a proper quantitative risk assessment of elevated CO₂ levels. Improvements are proposed to make future tests more valuable and usable for quantitative risk assessment.     

A reference station-based GNSS computing mode to support unified precise point positioning and real-time kinematic services

Currently, the GNSS computing modes are of two classes: network-based data processing and user receiver-based processing. A GNSS reference receiver station essentially contributes raw measurement data in either the RINEX file format or as real-time data streams in the RTCM format. Very little computation is carried out by the reference station. The existing network-based processing modes, regardless of whether they are executed in real-time or post-processed modes, are centralised or sequential. This paper describes a distributed GNSS computing framework that incorporates three GNSS modes: reference station-based, user receiver-based and network-based data processing. Raw data streams from each GNSS reference receiver station are processed in a distributed manner, i.e., either at the station itself or at a hosting data server/processor, to generate station-based solutions, or reference receiver-specific parameters. These may include precise receiver clock, zenith tropospheric delay, differential code biases, ambiguity parameters, ionospheric delays, as well as line-of-sight information such as azimuth and elevation angles. Covariance information for estimated parameters may also be optionally provided. In such a mode the nearby precise point positioning (PPP) or real-time kinematic (RTK) users can directly use the corrections from all or some of the stations for real-time precise positioning via a data server. At the user receiver, PPP and RTK techniques are unified under the same observation models, and the distinction is how the user receiver software deals with corrections from the reference station solutions and the ambiguity estimation in the observation equations. Numerical tests demonstrate good convergence behaviour for differential code bias and ambiguity estimates derived individually with single reference stations. With station-based solutions from three reference stations within distances of 22–103 km the user receiver positioning results, with various schemes, show an accuracy improvement of the proposed station-augmented PPP and ambiguity-fixed PPP solutions with respect to the standard float PPP solutions without station augmentation and ambiguity resolutions. Overall, the proposed reference station-based GNSS computing mode can support PPP and RTK positioning services as a simpler alternative to the existing network-based RTK or regionally augmented PPP systems.     

Performance analysis of integrated GPS/GLONASS carrier phase-based positioning

Due to the different signal frequencies for the GLONASS satellites, the commonly-used double-differencing procedure for carrier phase data processing can not be implemented in its straightforward form, as in the case of GPS. In this paper a novel data processing strategy, involving a three-step procedure, for integrated GPS/GLONASS positioning is proposed. The first is pseudo-range-based positioning, that uses double-differenced (DD) GPS pseudo-range and single-differenced (SD) GLONASS pseudo-range measurements to derive the initial position and receiver clock bias. The second is forming DD measurements (expressed in cycles) in order to estimate the ambiguities, by using the receiver clock bias estimated in the above step. The third is to form DD measurements (expressed in metric units) with the unknown SD integer ambiguity for the GLONASS reference satellite as the only parameter (which is constant before a cycle slip occurs for this satellite). A real-time stochastic model estimated by residual series over previous epochs is proposed for integrated GPS/GLONASS carrier phase and pseudo-range data processing. Other associated issues, such as cycle slip detection, validation criteria and adaptive procedure(s) for ambiguity resolution, is also discussed. The performance of this data processing strategy will be demonstrated through case study examples of rapid static positioning and kinematic positioning. From four experiments carried out to date, the results indicate that rapid static positioning requires 1 minute of single frequency GPS/GLONASS data for 100% positioning success rate. The single epoch positioning solution for kinematic positioning can achieve 94.6% success rate over short baselines (<6 km).     

The use of immersive real-time 3D computer graphics for visualisation of dilution of precision in virtual environments

Dilution of precision (DOP) is a fundamental concept in satellite navigation and surveying. A deeper understanding of this concept can be achieved through the means of 3D immersive visualisation. In this article, we present a method for visualising and exploring the spatial variation of DOP and discuss its presentation within an immersive virtual environment. The work demonstrates a real-time simulation of global positioning system (GPS) satellite geometry, modelled and visualised within a virtual representation of the university campus. The number of satellites visible to the receiver is modelled in real time as a user walks through the university campus. During this process, the changing satellite geometry is visualised in both 3D and aerial views. Various DOP values update to the screen against a pseudo-realistic building backdrop as the user travels. Both the aerial views and the changing volumes of the tetrahedra drawn in 3D provide an effective way of interpreting why exceptionally large or small horizontal DOP and vertical DOP values can occur in an urban context. Because the factors affecting DOPs are inherently 3D, communicating the spatial uncertainty of global positioning system coordinates within an immersive stereo environment has been viewed as a particularly powerful communication tool by both undergraduate and postgraduate students studying GI Science.     

Modelling the impacts of land-cover change on streamflow dynamics of a tropical rainforest headwater catchment

Abstract

A modelling experiment is used to examine different land-use scenarios ranging from extreme deforestation (31% forest cover) to pristine (95% forest cover) conditions and related Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) schemes to assess whether a change in streamflow dynamics, discharge extremes and mean annual water balance of a 73.4-km² tropical headwater catchment in Costa Rica could be detected. A semi-distributed, conceptual rainfall–runoff model was adapted to conceptualize the empirically-based, dominant hydrological processes of the study area and was multi-criteria calibrated using different objective functions and empirical constraints on model simulations in a Monte Carlo framework to account for parameter uncertainty. The results suggest that land-use change had relatively little effect on the overall mean annual water yield (<3%). However, streamflow dynamics proved to be sensitive in terms of frequency, timing and magnitude of discharge extremes. For low flows and peak discharges of return periods greater than one year, land use had a minor influence on the runoff response. Below these thresholds (<1-year return period), forest cover potentially decreased runoff peaks and low flows by as much as 10%, and non-forest cover increased runoff peaks and low flows by up to 15%. The study demonstrated the potential for using hydrological modelling to help identify the impact of protection and reforestation efforts on ecosystem services.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Birkel, C., Soulsby, C., and Tetzlaff, D., 2012. Modelling the impacts of land-cover change on streamflow dynamics of a tropical rainforest headwater catchment. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (8), 1543–1561.     

The radiation environment in L-2 orbit: implications on the non-X-ray background of the eROSITA pn-CCD cameras

The pn-CCD cameras at the focal plane of the eROSITA space observatory will be the first X-ray (0.2?C12?keV) detector to operate in a L-2 orbit. Therefore, no direct information of instrumental non X-ray background (NXB) is available to make predictions for eROSITA. Since, in general, the instrumental NXB experienced in orbit has a major impact on the overall sensitivity of the cameras, we investigated and modeled the L-2 radiation environment and its interaction with the eROSITA mass distribution and cameras, in order to quantify the expected pn-CCD NXB level. We obtain an average value of NXB ??25% lower than that observed by the pn-CCDs on-board the XMM-Newton satellite, which is placed in a Highly Elliptical Orbit (HEO). We discuss this result in light of the differences between the L-2 and HEO space environments.     

The evolving narrative of the Darfur conflict as represented in <Emphasis Type="Italic">The New York Times</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">The Washington Post</Emphasis>, 2003–2009

News media influence local to global interactions between people, societies, and governments by producing place images. Representations of Africa in Western news media are heavily imbued with colonialist notions of cultural geography. In particular, Western news media have represented conflicts in Africa as ‘tribal’, a trope that erases geographic and historical context, and discourages actions that could prevent or reduce violent conflict. To determine if ‘tribalism’ remains important in coverage of African conflict, we use framing analysis to evaluate news on Sudan’s Darfur region in The New York Times and The Washington Post during 2003–2009. We find that these newspapers predictably relied on stereotypes related to tribalism to simplify Darfur’s geography and make the conflict meaningful to intended readers. Tribal portrayal of African war is inherently political, and, problematically, neither newspaper recognized that their use of the tribal narrative was parallel to the views of both the Sudanese government and external observers that challenged the actions of the Sudanese government. However, we also found that stereotypical representations became less prominent over time, apparently because reporters found that the initial, simplistic framing of the conflict did not match their encounters with geographic reality. We emphasize the decline in stereotypical tropes, because this suggests behind-the-scenes negotiation about representations in these news organizations. Recognizing voices that challenge stereotypical portrayals is necessary to developing place images that are geographically more accurate.     

东南极拉斯曼丘陵泥质麻粒岩变质作用演化

普里兹湾拉斯曼丘陵代表了东南极一条重要的早古生代的～530Ma泛非期(Pan-African)高级构造活动带。然而,该区早期的晚元古代的～1000Ma格林维尔期(Grenvellian)高级变质作用的演化历史至今仍有争论。该区呈透镜状产出的泥质麻粒岩峰期矿物组合(M1)为石榴石+堇青石+斜方辉石+钾长石+石英,峰期石榴石变斑晶发育堇青石或堇青石+斜方辉石反应边(M2)。利用Thermocalc程序在KFMASH模式体系对该泥质麻粒岩进行的定量模拟表明,其峰期矿物组合是由反应石榴石+黑云母+石英=堇青石+斜方辉石+钾长石+熔体形成的。利用Themocalc平均P-T计算方法获得峰期M1变质P-T条件为～0.9GPa和～900℃,而叠加的M2组合反映了一个减压冷却的过程,其变质P-T条件为～0.7GPa和800～850℃。结合已有的年代学数据,认为该区泥质麻粒岩的峰期M1矿物组合反映晚元古代(～1000Ma)格林维尔期挤压D1构造事件,而叠加的M2矿物组合与M3蠕虫状结构则形成于早古生代泛非期(～530Ma)D2～D3高级扭压剪切构造期间。该扭压事件导致了面状高低应变带的发育以及进步花岗岩和伟晶岩的侵入。     

Centrifuge modelling of deformation of a multi-layered sequence over a ductile substrate: 1. Style and 4D geometry of active cover folds during layer-parallel shortening

Centrifuge analogue modelling illustrates the progressive development of active folds in multilayers upon a ductile substrate during layer-parallel shortening. Models simulate folding of a mechanically stratified sedimentary sequence upon migmatitic gneisses in a large hot orogen, or upon a thick basal evaporite ± shale sequence in deeper levels of fold belts. The absence of a weak low-viscosity and low-density layer at the interface promotes infolding of the cover sequence and ductile substrate, whereas a planar upper surface to the basal ductile substrate is preserved when it is present. Whilst fold style, wavelength, and deformation of the interface with the ductile substrate differ depending on whether a low-viscosity and low-density layer is present at the base of the cover sequence, there is no marked systematic curvature of fold axes as seen in previous sandbox models for fault-bend or fault propagation folding during bulk shortening. Bulk shortening of a layered sequence with relatively thick individual layers above a ductile substrate promotes a regular and upright train of buckle folds, whereas thinner layers promote a more irregular distribution of buckle folds with variable vergence, style, and amplitude. Buckle folds above a ductile substrate progressively develop during bulk shortening from open and upright, to angular and tight, and may further develop into cuspate structures above relatively weak horizons. Relatively thick weak horizons within the layered sequence during bulk shortening interrupt regular fold patterns up structural section and allow out-of-phase folds to develop above and below the weak horizon.     

Food Web Structure and Trophic Control in Central Puget Sound

We developed a food web model of central Puget Sound to provide science-based support for ecosystem-based management and to refine our understanding of bottom-up and top-down trophic forcing. Phytoplankton accounted for a large fraction of total biomass, total throughput, and caused considerable bottom-up effects in most functional groups in a dynamic simulation fit to time series data from 1981 to 2000. Top-down control was most apparent in the case of bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus), which exhibited keystone tendencies and appeared capable of causing trophic cascades. Increasing top-down control in several predator–prey relationships improved model fits to time series data from 1981 to 2000, but not as much as introducing non-equilibrium dynamics (biomass accumulation terms) to several key vertebrates. Fishing had little effect on system dynamics. Our model appears well-suited for addressing strategic, scenario-based questions of how the community as a whole will respond to management actions.