A comparison of wetness indices for the prediction of observed connected saturated areas under contrasting conditions

For lack of other widely available spatial information, topography is often used to predict water fluxes and water quality in mesoscale watersheds. Such data have however proven to be misleading in many environments where large and flat valley bottoms and/or highly conducive soil covers determine water storage and water transport mechanisms. Also, the focus is generally on the prediction of saturation areas regardless of whether they are connected to the catchment hydrographic network or rather present in isolated topographic depressions. Here soil information was coupled with terrain data towards the targeted prediction of connected saturated areas. The focus was on the 30 km² Girnock catchment (Cairngorm Mountains, northeast Scotland) and its 3 km² sub‐catchment, Bruntland Burn in which seven field surveys were done to capture actual maps of connected saturated areas in both dry and humid conditions. The 1 km² resolution UK Hydrology of Soil Types (HOST) classification was used to extract relevant, spatially variable, soil parameters. Results show that connected saturated areas were fairly well predicted by wetness indices but only in wet conditions when they covered more than 30% of the whole catchment area. Geomorphic indices including information on terrain shape, steepness, aspect, soil texture and soil depth showed potential but generally performed poorly. Indices based on soil and topographic data did not have more predictive power than those based on topographic information only: this was attributed to the coarse resolution of the HOST classification. Nevertheless, analyses provided interesting insights into the scale‐dependent water storage and transport mechanisms in both study catchments. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Monitoring litter interception of rainfall using leaf wetness sensor under controlled and field conditions

Leaf litter interception of water is an integral component of the water budget for some vegetated ecosystems. However, loss of rainfall to litter receives considerably less attention than canopy interception due to lack of suitable sensors to measure changes in litter water content. In this study, a commercially available leaf wetness sensor was calibrated to the gravimetric water content of eastern redcedar (Juniperus virginiana ) litter and used to estimate litter interception in a subhumid eastern redcedar woodland in north‐central Oklahoma. Under controlled laboratory conditions, a strong positive correlation between the leaf wetness sensor output voltage (mV) and measured gravimetric litter water content (? _g) was determined: ? _g = (.0009 × mV²) ? (0.14 × mV) ? 11.41 (R ² = .94, p  < .0001). This relationship was validated with field sampling and the output voltage (mV) accounted for 48% of the observed variance in the measured water content. The maximum and minimum interception storage capacity ranged between 1.16 and 12.04 and 1.12 and 9.62 mm, respectively. The maximum and minimum amount of intercepted rain was positively correlated to rainfall amount and intensity. The continuous field measurements demonstrated that eastern redcedar litter intercepted approximately 8% of the gross rainfall that fell between December 16, 2014 and May 31, 2015. Therefore, rainfall loss to litter can constitute a substantial component of the annual water budget. Long‐term in situ measurement of litter interception loss is necessary to gain a better estimate of water availability for streamflow and recharge. This is critical to manage water resources in the south‐central Great Plains, USA where grasslands are rapidly being transformed to woodland or woody dominated savanna.     

Transient climate changes in a perturbed parameter ensemble of emissions-driven earth system model simulations

We describe results from a 57-member ensemble of transient climate change simulations, featuring simultaneous perturbations to 54 parameters in the atmosphere, ocean, sulphur cycle and terrestrial ecosystem components of an earth system model (ESM). These emissions-driven simulations are compared against the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble of physical climate system models, used extensively to inform previous assessments of regional climate change, and also against emissions-driven simulations from ESMs contributed to the CMIP5 archive. Members of our earth system perturbed parameter ensemble (ESPPE) are competitive with CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in their simulations of historical climate. In particular, they perform reasonably well in comparison with HadGEM2-ES, a more sophisticated and expensive earth system model contributed to CMIP5. The ESPPE therefore provides a computationally cost-effective tool to explore interactions between earth system processes. In response to a non-intervention emissions scenario, the ESPPE simulates distributions of future regional temperature change characterised by wide ranges, and warm shifts, compared to those of CMIP3 models. These differences partly reflect the uncertain influence of global carbon cycle feedbacks in the ESPPE. In addition, the regional effects of interactions between different earth system feedbacks, particularly involving physical and ecosystem processes, shift and widen the ESPPE spread in normalised patterns of surface temperature and precipitation change in many regions. Significant differences from CMIP3 also arise from the use of parametric perturbations (rather than a multimodel ensemble) to represent model uncertainties, and this is also the case when ESPPE results are compared against parallel emissions-driven simulations from CMIP5 ESMs. When driven by an aggressive mitigation scenario, the ESPPE and HadGEM2-ES reveal significant but uncertain impacts in limiting temperature increases during the second half of the twenty-first century. Emissions-driven simulations create scope for development of errors in properties that were previously prescribed in coupled ocean–atmosphere models, such as historical CO₂ concentrations and vegetation distributions. In this context, historical intra-ensemble variations in the airborne fraction of CO₂ emissions, and in summer soil moisture in northern hemisphere continental regions, are shown to be potentially useful constraints, subject to uncertainties in the relevant observations. Our results suggest that future climate-related risks can be assessed more comprehensively by updating projection methodologies to support formal combination of emissions-driven perturbed parameter and multi-model earth system model simulations with suitable observational constraints. This would provide scenarios underpinned by a more complete representation of the chain of uncertainties from anthropogenic emissions to future climate outcomes.     

The Nyquist frequency for time series with slight deviations from regular spacing

The paper is based on the notion that the Nyquist frequency  ν_N  is a symmetry point of the periodogram of a time series: the power spectrum at frequencies above  ν_N  is a mirror image of that below  ν_N  . Koen showed that the sum     (where   t_k   and   t _ℓ  range over the time points of observation) is zero when the frequency  ν=ν_N  . This property is used to investigate the Nyquist frequency for data which are almost regularly spaced in time. For some configurations, there are deep minima of SS at frequencies  ν_P≪ν_N  ; such  ν_P  are dubbed 'pseudo-Nyquist' frequencies: the implication is that most of the information about the frequency content of the data is available in the spectrum over  (0, ν_P)  . Systematic simulation results are presented for two configurations – small random variations in respectively the time points of observation and the lengths of the intervals between successive observations. A few real examples of CCD time series photometry obtained over several hours are also discussed.     

Gaseous mercury emissions from urban surfaces: Controls and spatiotemporal trends

The spatial and temporal variability of Hg emissions from urban paved surfaces was assessed through repeated measurements under varying environmental conditions at six sample sites in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The results show significant spatial variability of the Hg emissions with median values ranging from below detection limit to 5.2 ng/m²/h. Two of the sites consistently had higher Hg emissions (on several occasions >20 ng/m²/h) than the other 4, which were equivalently low (maximum emission: 2.1 ng/m²/h). A surrogate measure of the pavement Hg concentrations was obtained during each day of sampling through the collection of street dust. The median street dust concentration also showed significant spatial variability (ranging from 9.6 to 44.5 ng/g). Regression analysis showed that the spatial variability of the Hg emissions was significantly related to the street dust concentrations. Controlled experiments using Hg amended street dust confirmed the relationship between Hg surface concentration and emission magnitude. Within a given sample site, Hg emissions varied temporally and multiple regression analysis showed that within-site variability was significantly influenced by changes in solar radiation with only a minor effect from surface temperature. Controlled experiments using shade cloths confirmed that solar radiation can have a large influence on the magnitude of Hg emissions within a given site. The emissions measured in Toronto were contextualized through comparison sampling in Austin, Texas. The Hg emissions measured in Austin were within the range detected in Toronto and also showed significant correlation with Hg street dust concentrations between sites. To provide a holistic assessment of Hg emissions from urban environments, samples were also collected from other common urban surfaces (soil, roofs, and windows). Soils consistently had higher emissions than all the other surfaces (7.3 ng/m²/h, n = 39).     

Fossil brines preserved in the St-Lawrence Lowlands, Québec, Canada as revealed by their chemistry and noble gas isotopes

Brines in Cambrian sandstones and Ordovician dolostones of the St-Lawrence Lowlands at Bécancour, Québec, Canada were sampled for analysis of all stable noble gases in order to trace their origin and migration path, in addition to quantifying their residence time. Major ion chemistry indicates that the brines are of Na-Ca-Cl type, possibly derived from halite dissolution. ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios and Ca excess indicate prolonged interactions with silicate rocks of the Proterozoic Grenville basement or the Cambrian Potsdam sandstone. The brines constrain a 2-3% contribution of mantle ³He and large amounts of nucleogenic ²¹Ne^∗ and ³⁸Ar^∗ and radiogenic ⁴He and ⁴⁰Ar^∗. ⁴He/⁴⁰Ar^∗ and ²¹Ne^∗/⁴⁰Ar^∗ ratios, corrected for mass fractionation during incomplete brine degassing, are identical to their production ratios in rocks. The source of salinity (halite dissolution), plus the occurrence of large amounts of ⁴⁰Ar^∗ in brines constrain the residence time of Bécancour brines as being older than the Cretaceous. Evaporites in the St-Lawrence Lowlands likely existed only during Devonian-Silurian time. Brines might result from infiltration of Devonian water leaching halite, penetrating into or below the deeper Cambrian-Ordovician aquifers. During the Devonian, the basin reached temperatures higher than 250 °C, allowing for thermal maturation of local gas-prone source rocks (Utica shales) and possibly facilitating the release of radiogenic ⁴⁰Ar^∗ into the brines. The last thermal event that could have facilitated the liberation of ⁴⁰Ar^∗ into fluids and contributed to mantle ³He is the Cretaceous Monteregian Hills magmatic episode. For residence times younger than the Cretaceous, it is difficult to find an appropriate source of salinity and of nucleogenic/radiogenic gases to the Bécancour brines.     

Genetic structure of the tall sea pen Funiculina quadrangularis in NW Scottish sea lochs

The tall sea pen Funiculina quadrangularis has a patchy distribution around the UK, being found in sheltered waters below 20 m depth on the northwest coast of Scotland and Ireland. The limited distribution and sensitivity to bottom fishing activities make F. quadrangularis vulnerable to reduction in population numbers that may lead to genetic isolation and reduced diversity. Because of this vulnerability and low resilience to physical disturbance, the tall sea pen is recognised as a Species of Principle Importance under the Natural Environment and Rural Communities Act, 2006, UK. ( http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2006/16/contents ) and is also on the Biodiversity Action Plan list of Priority Species for the UK. In the Mediterranean it is recognised as a sensitive and essential fish habitat because it forms habitat for several commercially important crustaceans. The aim of this study was to understand the current state of the genetic structure and gene flow of F. quadrangularis in areas of NW Scotland. We developed 10 microsatellite markers and used them to genotype 176 samples from four populations. Overall, our results suggest that there is high genetic diversity and high gene flow between colonies of F. quadrangularis in and among locations in Loch Linnhe and Loch Duich. As a result of the high rates of gene flow, genetic differentiation between sites was low. This may provide resilience to human impacts if distant populations have a high connectivity. However, care must be taken, as small but significant isolation by distance was found between the most geographically distant sites and only a small part of the species range was examined in this study. The genetic tools developed here will provide a foundation for wider studies of this vulnerable species.     

Efstadalsvatn – a multi-proxy study of a Holocene lacustrine sequence from NW Iceland

Multi-proxy data, both lithostratigraphic and biostratigraphic, are presented from Efstadalsvatn, a lake in NW Iceland. The sequence covers the period 10,000 to 3500 ¹⁴C yr B.P. The biostratgraphic data include the first Icelandic chironomid-based reconstruction of Holocene mean July air temperatures, using a Norwegian training set in the absence of modern Icelandic data. The results show that deglaciation and ecosystem development probably began before 10,000 ¹⁴C yr B.P. and that July temperatures were around 4°C at ca. 9500 ¹⁴C yr B.P. Temperatures then rose to ca. 8°C at the time of the deposition of the Saksunarvatn tephra (9100 ¹⁴C yr B.P.), reaching ca. 10°C by 8500 ¹⁴C yr B.P., high enough for the growth of tree birch, although successful birch colonisation did not take place until 6750 ¹⁴C yr B.P. There is some evidence for cooling immediately preceding 9100 ¹⁴C yr B.P. There is little firm biostratigraphic evidence for the 8200 cal. B.P. event, although this may be due to a relatively low resolution pollen sampling interval, but there are changes at this time in the total carbon (TC) and mass susceptibility (MS) data. Optimal temperatures and relative vegetation stability may have occurred between 8000–6100 ¹⁴C yr B.P. but the chironomid assemblages indicate higher temperatures after 5000 ¹⁴C yr B.P. This latter interpretation may, however, reflect delayed colonisation of thermophilous taxa and requires further investigation. There is evidence in the lithostratigraphy for greater local terrestrial instability after 6100 ¹⁴C yr B.P. but it seems unlikely that this led to the redevelopment of ice in the catchment. The biostratigraphic records appear to show a degree of resistence to climate forcing throughout the early and middle Holocene. The new chironomid-based temperature reconstruction needs to be refined by further studies in Iceland, particularly the development of an Icelandic training set, but has already demonstrated the problems of paleoclimatic interpretations based on pollen and/or macrofossil evidence alone.