长江下游地区汛期暴雨气候特征分析

IPCC(1995)第二次科学评估报告指出了极端气象事件变化研究的重要意义[1].长江下游地区地势低平,往往是我国暴雨洪涝的多发区域,造成严重灾害,因此,研究长江下游地区暴雨的规律具有极其重要的意义.选取了长江下游地区52站1960～2003年逐日降水资料,运用EOF分析将其分为3个分区,采用小波分析,Mann-kendall非参数检验法及趋势系数法等分析方法研究各分区汛期暴雨降水的气候统计特征.结果表明:虽然汛期同为暴雨降水的集中时期,但各分区暴雨降水在汛期降水中所占比重略有差异,暴雨降水量、频次所占比例的空间分布为西区较大、东区和北区略小,暴雨平均强度则西区和北区东部强、其他区域小.同一区域中降水量与频次具有显著的正相关,不同区域间仅暴雨降水量的相关性较好.暴雨降水量44 a中呈现了增加的趋势.各区汛期暴雨具有多重时间尺度的周期变化,暴雨降水量和频次的周期在西区与全区的较为一致,主要是6～9 a的周期振荡.东区和北区有着不同尺度的振荡周期.各区的暴雨降水强度都不同程度地存在着3 a的周期振荡.长江下游地区汛期暴雨降水量除北区外,全区及其他分区的突变时刻均发生在1980年代末～1990年代初这一时期,暴雨降水量在1980年代中期～20世纪末出现了一个增长的过程,北区趋势并不显著.全区暴雨平均强度在突变时刻之后有一个减弱的过程,而西区和北区的暴雨平均强度变化并不显著.     

河西走廊一次强沙尘暴过程的干侵入分析

使用NCEP(1°×1°)每天4次的再分析资料对2006年4月9~10日发生在甘肃省河西走廊的一次强沙尘暴天气进行了诊断分析。结果表明:这次强沙尘暴天气有明显的干侵入特征,对流层中高层高位势涡度,干空气在西北气流引导下,沿等熵面入侵到边界层;干侵入使对流层低层产生高位涡扰动、锋面气旋环流加强、低空急流形成、边界层辐合增强,从而引发了这次强沙尘暴天气。     

一种卫星反演海温资料的补缺方法

卫星反演海温资料的补缺问题一直受到气象海洋工作者的关注,本文对海温补缺问题提出一种新的构想.首先对所研究的区域分块处理,对每一块子区域海温缺失部分进行Kriging方法插值,并利用历史资料,将海温缺失部分构成一个时间序列,借助于Kalman滤波,得到滤波以后的海温,然后对插值与滤波后的海温进行数据拟合.在拟合过程中引入区域信息量V,在不同象素点参数条件下拟合出最优拟合参βα、β并进行误差估计,实际试验表明子区域选取200×200个象素点,并把整张云图分为144块区域,对海温补缺效果十分明显.本文为海温补缺提供了一种全新的,具有较高精度且实际业务系统可操作的方法.     

附件一国家温窒气体排放趋势及其履约进展

对<联合国气候变化框架公约>秘书处最新公布的温室气体排放数据进行统计分析,结果显示:相对于基准年(1990年),附件-国家温室气体排放总量整体呈下降趋势.其中,经济转型期国家温室气体排放总量总体上呈逐年下降趋势,非经济转型期国家的温室气体排放总量有逐年增长的趋势.美国和加拿大能源部门的温室气体排放量增长最为显著,相对于1990年,2005年其增幅分别为19.2%和28.6%;英国和德国能源部门温室气体减排量最为显著,其减幅分别为7.8%和17.4%.在2005年,有超过一半的附件-国家的实际排放量低于其目标排放量,履约进展状况良好.     

四川的地热水资源

四川的地热水资源丰富，大多数热水出露于构造断裂带和洒谷地区，主要储集在三叠纪地层中的碳酸盐岩里。根据温（热）泉的分布状况、热水的类型和物理化学特征，对地热田进行了预测分区。     

Abundance analysis of Barium stars

We obtain the chemical abundances of six barium stars and two CH subgiant stars based on the high signal-to-noise ratio and high resolution Echelle spectra. The neu- tron capture process elements Y, Zr, Ba, La and Eu show obvious overabundances relative to the Sun, for example, their [Ba/Fe] values are from 0.45 to 1.27. Other elements, in- cluding Na, Mg, A1, Si, Ca, Sc, Ti, V, Cr, Mn and Ni, show comparable abundances to the Solar ones, and their [Fe/H] covers a range from -0.40 to 0.21, which means they belong to the Galactic disk. The predictions of the theoretical model of wind accretion for bi- nary systems can explain the observed abundance patterns of the neutron capture process elements in these stars, which means that their overabundant heavy-elements could be caused by accreting the ejecta of AGB stars, the progenitors of present-day white dwarf companions in binary systems.     

GPS干扰和抗干扰技术的研究

在简要叙述GPS原理、分析GPS弱点基础上,结合伊拉克战争中关、伊两军对GPS的应用及干扰与抗干扰的实施,对GPS深入开展研究,给出了对GPS进行干扰的主要技术方式和提高系统抗干扰能力的主要技术措施。     

Investigation of fractal distribution law for the trace number of random and grouped fractures in a geological mass

A fractal study method of the number of geological mass fractures is introduced in detail in this paper. Three main aspects of the problem were studied: (1) The random distribution of fractures in a geological mass was in good agreement with the fractal law. The size scale of the studied geological mass ranged from 2400 m to 1 mm for the length of each side, and the geological mass samples were taken from 13 coal areas in China. (2) The geological mass fractures were evidently directional and anisotropic, having originated from tectonic movement. Observation and statistics for the data from the Xuangang, Fenxi and Dongshan coal areas in Shanxi, China, demonstrated that the fracture distribution of each group, classified by the strike of the strata, still follow the fractal law, even though the fractal dimension varies to a certain extent with different strikes. (3) The sedimentary strata containing the coal seams, as a geological mass, underwent almost similar tectonic movements in their geological history. The mechanical experiments on geological mass samples from Fenxi and Jiexiu in Shanxi demonstrated that the fractal dimension of the number of fractures in the same strata is in good power function with the product of strength and elastic modulus. The larger the product of the strength of the elastic modulus is, the larger is the fractal dimension, and vice versa.     

Metamorphic garnet pyroxenite from the 540-600 m main borehole of the Chinese Continental Scientific Drilling (CCSD) project

Compared to other mafic and ultramafic rocks from the CCSD main borehole as well as from the outcrops, rocks from the 540-600 m section is extraordinary in terms of its geophysical as well as geochemical properties. It consists of > 70% hematite-ilmenite garnet pyroxenite (HI-GPX) and < 30% intercalated rutile garnet pyroxenite (R-GPX). Whole-rock geochemical data show that HI-GPXs have: (1) relatively high V with an average of 606 ppm, but lower Nb and Ta; (2) highest TFeO, Fe₂O₃/FeO ratio, and highly variable but strong positive Eu anomalies with Eu/Eu? up to 2.9; (3) anomalously high V/Sc ratios ranging from 8.39 to 43.23, average 15.03; and (4) high amounts of hematite-ilmenite solid solutions with a very fine intergrowth structure down to nanometer scale. V/Sc ratios in the CCSD garnet pyroxenites are correlated negatively with MgO, but positively with Fe₂O₃/FeO ratios. Both suites of pyroxenites have similar rare earth elements and high field strength elements geochemistry. These features demonstrate that these pyroxenites were formed from metamorphism of high-Fe and/or -Ti gabbroic cumulates. This can account not only for low high field strength elements (HFSE) and rare earth elements (REE) but also low Nb/Ta and Zr/Hf ratios in these rocks. Seemingly negative correlation between Nb/Ta and Zr/Hf in the CCSD metabasites, not significantly affected by UHP metamorphism, is also consistent with the silicate differentiation trend in a basaltic magma chamber.