Evaluating the impact of visualization of wildfire hazard upon decision-making under uncertainty

The paper investigates whether the methods chosen for representing uncertain geographic information aid or impair decision-making in the context of wildfire hazard. Through a series of three human subject experiments, utilizing 180 subjects and employing increasingly difficult tasks, this research evaluates the effect of five different visualizations and a text-based representation on decision-making under uncertainty. Our quantitative experiments focus specifically on the task of decision-making under uncertainty, rather than the task of reading levels of uncertainty from the map. To guard against the potential for generosity and risk seeking in decision-making under uncertainty, the experimental design uses performance-based incentives. The experiments showed that the choice of representation makes little difference to performance in cases where subjects are allowed the time and focus to consider their decisions. However, with the increasing difficulty of time pressure, subjects performed best using a spectral color hue-based representation, rather than more carefully designed cartographic representations. Text-based and simplified boundary encodings were among the worst performers. The results have implications for the performance of decision-making under uncertainty using static maps, especially in the stressful environments surrounding an emergency.     

Material flow analysis for an industry—A case study in packaging

The basic materials used in packaging are glass, metals (primarily aluminum and steel), an ever-growing range of plastics, paper and paperboard, wood, textiles for bags, and miscellaneous other materials (such as glues, inks, and other supplies). They are fabricated into rigid, semirigid, or flexible containers. The most common forms of these containers include cans, drums, bottles, cartons, boxes, bags, pouches, and wraps. Packaging products are, for the most part, low cost, bulky products that are manufactured close to their customers. There is virtually no import or export of packaging products. A material flow analysis can be developed that looks at all inputs to an industrial sector, inventories the losses in processing, and tracks the fate of the material after its useful life. An example is presented that identifies the material inputs to the packaging industry, and addresses the ultimate fate of the materials used.Correspondence should be directed to Earle B. Amey, U.S. Geological Survey, National Center 983, Reston, Virginia 20192.     

Resonant tidal disruption in galactic nuclei

It has recently been shown by Rauch 38 Tremaine that the rate of angular momentum relaxation in nearly Keplerian star clusters is greatly increased by a process termed 'resonant relaxation'; it was also argued, via a series of scaling arguments, that tidal disruption of stars in galactic nuclei containing massive black holes could be noticeably enhanced by this process. We describe here the results of numerical simulations of resonant tidal disruption which quantitatively test the predictions made by Rauch 38 Tremaine. The simulation method is based on an N -body routine incorporating cloning of stars near the loss cone and a semirelativistic symplectic integration scheme. Normalized disruption rates for resonant and non-resonant nuclei are derived at orbital energies both above and below the critical energy, and the corresponding angular momentum distribution functions are found. The black hole mass above which resonant tidal disruption is quenched by relativistic precession is determined. We also briefly describe the discovery of chaos in the Wisdom–Holman symplectic integrator applied to highly eccentric orbits and propose a modified integration scheme that remains robust under these conditions. We find that resonant disruption rates exceed their non-resonant counterparts by an amount consistent with the predictions; in particular, we estimate the net tidal disruption rate for a fully resonant cluster to be about twice that of its non-resonant counterpart. No significant enhancement in rates is observed outside the critical radius. Relativistic quenching of the effect is found to occur for hole masses M  >  M _Q  = (8 ± 3) × 10⁷  M . The numerical results combined with the observed properties of galactic nuclei indicate that for most galaxies the resonant enhancement to tidal disruption rates will be very small.     

How old are SN Ia progenitor systems? New observational constraints on the distribution of time delays from GALEX

The time delay between the formation of the progenitor systems of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) and their detonation is a vital discriminant between the various progenitor scenarios that have been proposed for them. We use Sloan Digital Sky Survey optical and Galaxy Evolution Explorer ( GALEX ) ultraviolet observations of the early-type host galaxies of 21 nearby SNe Ia and quantify the presence or absence of any young stellar population to constrain the minimum time delay for each supernova. We find that early-type host galaxies lack 'prompt' SNe Ia with time delays of ≲100 Myr and that ∼70 per cent SNe Ia have minimum time delays of 275 Myr–1.25 Gyr, with a median of 650 Myr, while at least 20 per cent SNe Ia have minimum time delays of at least 1 Gyr at 95 per cent confidence and two of these four SNe Ia are likely older than 2 Gyr. The distribution of minimum time delays observed matches most closely the expectation for the single-degenerate channel with a main sequence donor. Furthermore, we do not find any evidence that subluminous SNe Ia are associated with long time delays.     

210Pb dating of scottish lake sediments,afforestation and accelerated soil erosion

Changes in the rate of soil erosion in lake catchments can be identified from changes in the rate of sediment accumulation in lakes. Here we compare recently afforested sites with non-afforested sites in the Galloway area of Southwest Scotland. We show that lakes with non-afforested catchments have slow, constant sediment accumulation rates, whereas lakes with recently afforested catchments have changes in accumulation that parallel the known history of afforestation. For Loch Grannoch the sediment accumulation rate increases from 0.1 cm yr^?1 to over 2 cm yr^?2 during the disturbance period. Data from L. Skerrow, however, suggest that the rate might decline to predisturbance levels after approximately 10 years as the forest canopy closes and drainage channels stabilize.     

Influence of capture stress, salinity and reproductive status on zinc associated with metallothionein-like proteins in the livers of three marine teleost species

The influence of capture stress, salinity and reproductive status on zinc associated with the metallothionein-like (MT-like) proteins in the livers of three marine teleost species was investigated. In striped mullet, Mugil cephalus L., the zinc associated with the MT-like protein, as determined by gel-permeation HPLC, increased significantly from approximately 102 to 1162 nmol zinc bound/g wet wt 7 days following capture in the field, handling, transportation to the laboratory and transfer to holding tanks. Significant increases were also observed following exposure to reduced salinity for 7 days. Smaller increases were observed in cultured red drum, Sciaenops ocellatus, livers following exposure to reduced salinity and physical trauma for 7 days. Finally, there was approximately a 2·5-fold increase in the zinc associated with the MT-like protein in livers of female spotted seatrout, Cynoscion nebulosus, collected during the reproductive season compared to regressed animals. These findings emphasize the need for establishing the natural fluctuations in MT levels as well as the response to common physical environmental variables before measurement of MT can be used reliably as a biochemical indicator of environmental contamination.     

Nitrate dynamics in a rural headwater catchment: measurements and modelling

This study was designed to improve our understanding of, and mechanistically simulate, nitrate (NO₃) dynamics in a steep 9.8 ha rural headwater catchment, including its production in soil and delivery to a stream via surface and subsurface processes. A two‐dimensional modelling approach was evaluated for (1) integrating these processes at a hillslope scale annually and within storms, (2) estimating denitrification, and (3) running virtual experiments to generate insights and hypotheses about using trees in streamside management zones (SMZs) to mitigate NO₃ delivery to streams. Total flow was mathematically separated into quick‐ and slow‐flow components; the latter was routed through the HYDRUS software with a nitrogen module designed for constructed wetlands. Flow was monitored for two years. High surface‐soil NO₃ concentrations started to be delivered to the stream via preferential subsurface flow within two days of the storm commencing. Groundwater NO₃‐N concentrations decreased from 1.0 to less than 0.1 mg l^?1 from up‐slope to down‐slope water tables, respectively, which was attributed to denitrification. Measurements were consistent with the flushing of NO₃ mainly laterally from surface soil during and following each storm. The model accurately accounted for NO₃ turnover, leading to the hypotheses that denitrification was a minor flux (<3 kg N ha^?1) compared to uptake (98^?127 kg N ha^?1), and that SMZ trees would reduce denitrification if they lowered the water table. This research provides an example of the measurement and modelling of NO₃ dynamics at a small‐catchment scale with high spatial and temporal resolution. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The galaxy luminosity function in the LAMOST Complete Spectroscopic Survey of Pointing Area at the Southern Galactic Cap

We present optical luminosity functions(LFs) of galaxies in the~(0.1) g,~(0.1) r,~(0.1) i bands, calculated using data in~40 deg~2 sky area of the LAMOST Complete Spectroscopic Survey of Pointing Area(LaCoSSPAr) in the Southern Galactic Cap. Redshifts for galaxies brighter than r = 18.1 were obtained mainly with LAMOST. In each band, LFs derived using both parametric and non-parametric maximum likelihood methods agree well with each other. In the0.1 r band, our fitting parameters of the Schechter function are φ_*=(1.65 ± 0.36) × 10~(-2) h~3 Mpc~(-3), M_*=-20.69 ± 0.06 mag and α =-1.12 ± 0.08,which agree with previous studies. Separate LFs are also derived for emission line galaxies and absorption line galaxies. The LFs of absorption line galaxies show a dip at~(0.1) r ~18.5 and can be fitted well by a double-Gaussian function, suggesting a bimodality in passive galaxies.     

Using multivariate statistical analysis of groundwater major cation and trace element concentrations to evaluate groundwater flow in a regional aquifer

Groundwater samples were collected from 11 springs in Ash Meadows National Wildlife Refuge in southern Nevada and seven springs from Death Valley National Park in eastern California. Concentrations of the major cations (Ca, Mg, Na and K) and 45 trace elements were determined in these groundwater samples. The resultant data were subjected to evaluation via the multivariate statistical technique principal components analysis (PCA), to investigate the chemical relationships between the Ash Meadows and Death Valley spring waters, to evaluate whether the results of the PCA support those of previous hydrogeological and isotopic studies and to determine if PCA can be used to help delineate potential groundwater flow patterns based on the chemical compositions of groundwaters. The results of the PCA indicated that groundwaters from the regional Paleozoic carbonate aquifers (all of the Ash Meadows springs and four springs from the Furnace Creek region of Death Valley) exhibited strong statistical associations, whereas other Death Valley groundwaters were chemically different. The results of the PCA support earlier studies, where potentiometric head levels, δ¹⁸O and δD, geological relationships and rare earth element data were used to evaluate groundwater flow, which suggest groundwater flows from Ash Meadows to the Furnace Creek springs in Death Valley. The PCA suggests that Furnace Creek groundwaters are moderately concentrated Ash Meadows groundwater, reflecting longer aquifer residence times for the Furnace Creek groundwaters. Moreover, PCA indicates that groundwater may flow from springs in the region surrounding Scotty's Castle in Death Valley National Park, to a spring discharging on the valley floor. The study indicates that PCA may provide rapid and relatively cost‐effective methods to assess possible groundwater flow regimes in systems that have not been previously investigated. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.