介电常数在地震预报中应用的可能性

1.前言在地震预报研究中,关于地球电阻率(地电阻率ρs)与地震关系的研究取得了较大进展。但是,作为一种预报地震的手段,如能得到反映同一本质的其他电性参数的支持,可以增强其预报地震的可靠性。作者认为,岩石的介电常数ε_r,可以用来预报地震,可以与ρs法     

海城7．3级地震前地震波动力学特征量的异常变化

本文给出对海城７．３级地震前地震波动力学特征量变化的一些最新研究结果。所研究的地震波包括体波（Ｐ，Ｓ波）、尾波和短周期地脉动三类。特征量有：体波与地脉动的波形时间线性度和空间线性度，平均半周期，频谱的峰值频率、拐角频率、相对频带宽度、相对频谱峰值、高频段的谱线斜率绝对值；尾波的时间熵、振幅比、持续时间、观测与计算持续时间差及其二阶差分、Ｑ＿ｃ值、反映介质混浊度与震源特性的系数ａ＿ｃ等。所得结果表明，三类地震波的上述动力学特征量大都在震前一至半年左右出现、有的在６－１０天乃至一天以内出现过不同形态的阶段性异常变化，因而可看作海城地震的中短期和临震的地震波前兆异常指标。     

An analytical solution for rainfall infiltration into an unsaturated infinite slope and its application to slope stability analysis

Surficial slope failures in residual soils are common in tropical and subtropical regions as a result of rainfall infiltration. This study develops an analytical solution for simulating rainfall infiltration into an infinite unsaturated soil slope. The analytical solution is based on the general partial differential equation for water flow through unsaturated soils. It can accept soil–water characteristic curve and unsaturated permeability function of the exponential form into account. Numerical simulations are conducted to verify the assumptions of the analytical solution and demonstrate that the proposed analytical solution is acceptable for the coarse soils with low air entry values. The pore‐water pressure (pwp) distributions obtained from the analytical solution can be incorporated into a limit equilibrium method to do infinite slope stability analysis for a rain‐induced shallow slip. The analysis method takes into account the influence of the water content change on unit weight and hence on factor of safety. A series of analytical parametric analyses have been performed using the developed model. The analyses indicate that when the residual soil slope, consisting of a completely decomposed granite layer underlain by a less permeable layer, is subjected to a continuous heavy rainfall, the loss of negative pwp and the reduction in factor of safety were found to be most significant for the shallow soil layer and during the first 12 h. The antecedent and subsequent rainfall intensity, depth of a less permeable layer and slope angle all have a significant influence on the pwp response and hence the slope stability. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Contributions of individual variation in temperature, solar radiation and precipitation to crop yield in the North China Plain, 1961–2003

An understanding of the relative impacts of the changes in climate variables on crop yield can help develop effective adaptation strategies to cope with climate change. This study was conducted to investigate the effects of the interannual variability and trends in temperature, solar radiation and precipitation during 1961–2003 on wheat and maize yields in a double cropping system at Beijing and Zhengzhou in the North China Plain (NCP), and to examine the relative contributions of each climate variable in isolation. 129 climate scenarios consisting of all the combinations of these climate variables were constructed. Each scenario contained 43 years of observed values of one variable, combined with values of the other two variables from each individual year repeated 43 times. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) was used to simulate crop yields using the ensemble of generated climate scenarios. The results showed that the warming trend during the study period did not have significant impact on wheat yield potential at both sites, and only had significant negative impact on maize yield potential at Beijing. This is in contrast with previous results on effect of warming. The decreasing trend in solar radiation had a much greater impact on simulated yields of both wheat and maize crops, causing a significant reduction in potential yield of wheat and maize at Beijing. Although decreasing trends in rainfed yield of both simulated wheat and maize were found, the substantial interannual variability of precipitation made the trends less prominent.     

North Pacific Synthesis of the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study: Overview

This special issue is comprised of 13 papers, including this overview, and focuses on the synthesis of the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS) in the North Pacific which took place from 1997 through 2003. The effort was led by the JGOFS North Pacific Synthesis Group, with the aim of quantifying CO₂ drawdown by physical and biological pumps in the North Pacific by identifying and studying the regional, seasonal to inter-annual variations in the key processes, and understanding their regulating mechanisms. Emphasis was placed on the similarities and differences of the biogeochemical regimes in the eastern and western subarctic Pacific. Effort was also made to address the future research directions which arose from the scientific findings during the North Pacific JGOFS process study. A brief overview of the papers from view points of CO₂ drawdown by physical and biological pumps, spatial variability, and temporal variability from seasonal to decadal scales is made, followed by suggestions for the directions of future research. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Comparative assessment of nitrogen fixation rate by 15N2 tracer assays in the South China Sea

Nitrogen fixation is one of the most important sources of new nitrogen in the ocean and thus profoundly affects the nitrogen and carbon biogeochemical processes. The distribution, controlling factors, and flux of N₂ fixation in the global ocean remain uncertain, partly because of the lack of methodological uniformity. The 15N₂ tracer assay (the original bubble method → the 15N₂-enriched seawater method → the modified bubble method) is the mainstream method for field measurements of N₂ fixation rates (NFRs), among which the original bubble method is the most frequently used. However, accumulating evidence has suggested an underestimation of NFRs when using this method. To improve the availability of previous data, we compared NFRs measured by three 15N₂ tracer assays in the South China Sea. Our results indicate that the relationship between NFRs measured by the original bubble method and the 15N₂-enriched seawater method varies obviously with area and season, which may be influenced by incubation time, diazotrophic composition, and environmental factors. In comparison, the relationship between NFRs measured by the original bubble method and the modified bubble method is more stable, indicating that the N₂ fixation rates based on the original bubble methods may be underestimated by approximately 50%. Based on this result, we revised the flux of N₂ fixation in the South China Sea to 40 mmol/(m2·a). Our results improve the availability and comparability of literature NFR data in the South China Sea. The comparison of the 15N₂ tracer assay for NFRs measurements on a larger scale is urgently necessary over the global ocean for a more robust understanding of the role of N₂ fixation in the marine nitrogen cycle.     

Controlling factors on the charging process of oil and gas in the eastern main sub-sag of the Baiyun Sag,Zhujiang River (Pearl River) Mouth Basin

The eastern main sub-sag (E-MSS) of the Baiyun Sag was the main zone for gas exploration in the deep-water area of the Zhujiang River (Pearl River) Mouth Basin at its early exploration stage, but the main goal of searching gas in this area was broken through by the successful exploration of the W3-2 and H34B volatile oil reservoirs, which provides a new insight for exploration of the Paleogene oil reservoirs in the E-MSS. Nevertheless, it is not clear on the distribution of “gas accumulated in the upper layer, oil accumulated in the lower layer” (Gas_upper-Oil_lower) under the high heat flow, different source-rock beds, multi-stages of oil and gas charge, and multi-fluid phases, and not yet a definite understanding of the genetic relationship and formation mechanism among volatile oil, light oil and condensate gas reservoirs, and the migration and sequential charge model of oil and gas. These puzzles directly lead to the lack of a clear direction for oil exploration and drilling zone in this area. In this work, the PVT fluid phase, the origin of crude oil and condensate, the secondary alteration of oil and gas reservoirs, the evolution sequence of oil and gas formation, the phase state of oil and gas migration, and the configuration of fault activity were analyzed, which established the migration and accumulation model of Gas_upper-Oil_lower co-controlled by source and heat, and fractionation controlled by facies in the E-MSS. Meanwhile, the fractionation evolution model among common black reservoirs, volatile reservoirs, condensate reservoirs and gas reservoirs is discussed, which proposed that the distribution pattern of Gas_upper-Oil_lower in the E-MSS is controlled by the generation attribute of oil and gas from source rocks, the difference of thermal evolution, and the fractionation controlled by phases after mixing the oil and gas. Overall, we suggest that residual oil reservoirs should be found in the lower strata of the discovered gas reservoirs in the oil-source fault and diapir-developed areas, while volatile oil reservoirs should be found in the deeper strata near the sag with no oil-source fault area.     

南海西北部水域斑节对虾资源的调查研究

1989－1991年对南海西北部水域进行斑节对虾Penaeusmonodon资源专项调查。结果表明,斑节对虾的密集分布区在海南岛东部和南部海区,其现存资源量为82．6万尾,周年有体长30mm以下的幼虾出现。主要产卵期在9－12月。产卵场在海南岛东部和南部水深30-60m的海区。     

基于ArcView的专题地图的制作

本文探讨了在ArcView环境下专题地图的制作工艺方法和ArcView在制图中的相关应用。     

Incorporating uncertainty into the estimation of biological reference points for a spiny lobster (Panulirus penicillatus) fishery

The status of a fishery is often defined as the probability of fishing mortality rate exceeding a perilous level for long‐term sustainability. Lobster stock assessments are often subject to large uncertainty in input data and high levels of natural variability in lobster life history processes, which calls for incorporating uncertainty associated with both indicator and management reference points in an evaluation of biological risk of overfishing. Using a Monte Carlo simulation approach, we evaluated the impacts of uncertainty in modelling on the determination of the status of the Taitung spiny lobster (Panulirus penicillatus) fishery (Taiwan), which has not been quantitatively determined despite its commercial importance. The commonly used biological reference points derived from the per recruit model (F _0.1 the fishing mortality rate where the slope of the curve of yield‐per‐recruit model is 10% of the maximum slope and F _4Q%, the fishing mortality rate that reduces the expected egg production for a cohort of female lobsters to 40% of that produced in the absence of a fishery of the egg‐per‐recruit model) were influenced by uncertainties associated with lobster life history and fishery parameters. A large uncertainty in the current fishing mortality rate (F _cnr) and estimates of biological reference points (F _BRPs) increased the uncertainty in determining the risk of overexploitation throughout the confidence levels of the stochastic decision‐making framework. This simulation study suggests that the target reference point of F _40% is less sensitive to the input parameters’ uncertainty than F _0.1 We suggest a further evaluation of other F‐based references points and development of biomass‐based reference points before final selection and implementation for the management of the Taitung lobster fishery.