Gravitational lensing of anisotropic sources

In strong gravitational lensing, the multiple images we see correspond to light rays that leave the source in slightly different directions. If the source emission is anisotropic, the images may differ from conventional lensing predictions (which assume isotropy). To identify scales on which source anisotropy may be important, we study the angle δ between the light rays emerging from the source, for different lensing configurations. If the lens has a power-law profile   M ∝ R ^γ  , the angle δ initially increases with lens redshift and then either diverges (for a steep profile  γ < 1  ), remains constant (for an isothermal profile  γ= 1  ), or vanishes (for a shallow profile  γ > 1  ) as   z _l→ z _s  . The scaling with lens mass is roughly  δ∝ M ^1/(2−γ)  . The results for an Navarro–Frenk–White (NFW) profile are qualitatively similar to those for a shallow power law, with δ peaking at about half the redshift of the source (not half the distance). In practice, beaming could modify the statistics of beamed sources lensed by massive clusters: for an opening angle  θ_jet  , there is a probability as high as   P ∼ 0.02–0.07(θ_jet/0.5°)⁻¹  that one of the lensed images may be missed (for  2 ≲ z _s≲ 6  ). Differential absorption within active galactic nuclei (AGNs) could modify the flux ratios of AGNs lensed by clusters; a sample of AGNs lensed by clusters could provide further constraints on the sizes of absorbing regions. Source anisotropy is not likely to be a significant effect in galaxy-scale strong lensing.     

Large,solid particles in the clouds of Venus: Do they exist?

The discovery of large, solid particles in the clouds of Venus is one of the most significant findings of Pioneer Venus because it means that a substantial mass of the clouds is composed of a material other than sulfuric acid. The evidence which suggests that solid particles form a distinctive size mode is reexamined. The mode is defined by a discontinuity between two size ranges of the Pioneer Venus particle size spectrometer. This discontinuity could represent a real size mode. However, it could also be an artifact of the measurement technique. R. G. Knollenberg (1984) discusses several possible instrumental effects which might have caused this discontinuity. It is hypothesized herein that such effects did occur and that the large particles are really the tail of the mode 2 sulfuric acid particle size distribution and are not a separate mode of solid particles. Using such a revised size distribution, it is shown that all of the Pioneer Venus and Venera optical data from the lower clouds can be explained with sulfuric acid droplets without introducing any solid particles. As a by-product of this analysis, it is also found that the upper clouds of Venus must contain a material with a higher refractive index than sulfuric acid. A small quantity of sulfur could account for this observation.     

‘Copernicus’ observations of extragalactic X-ray sources

The MSSL X-ray detectors onCopernicus have been used to study a number of extragalactic objects. At least three classes of unresolved sources are found and we suggest that accretion may be the dominant mechanism. The mass of the accreting object then determines the X-ray emission properties.Paper presented at the COSPAR Symposium on Fast Transients in X- and Gamma-Rays, held at Varna, Bulgaria, 29–31 May, 1975.     

Fishers' perceptions as indicators of the performance of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs)

How users perceive the performance of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) is fundamental for the social acceptance of these zones. Moreover, their perceptions may be relevant for monitoring the effects of MPAs on extractive activities. This study analyzes artisanal fishers' perceptions of the performance of a north-western Mediterranean coastal MPA, which encompasses two no-take zones (NTZs). Three viewpoints have been considered: the effect on the personal activity of fishers, the effect on the local fishery and the effect on the ecosystem. In order to test the hypothesis that biomass export (spillover) - which had previously been evidenced from the two NTZs - may influence fishers' perceptions of NTZ effects, fishers' perceptions were compared with both declared and observed fishing activity over an one-year period.The results show that negative perceptions of NTZs are either nil or are negligible. Most fishers are aware of the beneficial effects of NTZs on ecosystems and fisheries. However, they remain to be convinced of the beneficial effects of the NTZs on their own activity. For instance, the proximity of a NTZ appears never to be involved in the choice of a fishing spot. This partial lack of correspondence between scientific expectation and fishers' perceptions is discussed in the light of fishing habits in the zone adjacent to NTZs, and takes into account fishing grounds, targeted species and seniority (defined as the number of years the fisher has been fishing within the MPA). All three factors appear to influence fishers' perceptions. For example, having a positive perception about a NTZ and spending more time fishing in the adjacent zone are habits that can be associated with fishers with less seniority. Fishers' perceptions obviously indicate the social acceptance of the MPA and are an essential monitoring tool for MPA managers. However, perceptions cannot be seen as a substitute for scientific monitoring, as both approaches are clearly complementary.     

The Uncertainty in the True End Point of a Fossil's Stratigraphic Range When Stratigraphic Sections Are Sampled Discretely

Stratigraphic sections are often sampled at well-defined discrete points. Because of the incompleteness of the fossil record, a particular species may not be observed even when it is extant at a sampling point. We introduce a model and Bayesian analysis for estimating the true time of disappearance of a lineage from a section in the face of the possibility that failure to find the species beyond its observed stratigraphic range may represent false negatives. We incorporate proper prior information, including an estimated longevity of the species and the probability that it will be observed if extant. Our analysis produces a posterior density for the true extinction time of the species. Summaries of this probability distribution provide a point estimate of the extinction time, a standard deviation for the uncertainty in the estimate, and confidence intervals for the time of extinction. We apply our model to stratigraphic ranges of benthic foraminifera collected from the early Late Cretaceous (Cenomanian and Turonian) from Eastbourne, England.     

The geodetic requirements for commercial data base management systems

There are many data base management systems now available as commercially marketed software packages. Although most of these packages were initially aimed at bussiness or administrative data processing applications, they may frequently also be the right tool for a scientific data processing task. This becomes more apparent as we notice that scientific computer programmers are spending more and more time on data management requirements rather than the coding of mathematical algorithms. In a scientific environment, a generalized data base management package is best viewed as a tool for programmers, rather than as a tool for direct, independent use by end users or by agency management. To the end user, the most attractive feature of a commerical DBMS is usually the interactive retrieval and update language. To the programmer, the most attractive feature is more likely to be the strong support for various types of keyed access. All of the manipulations necessary to build and maintain indices and other tables can be treated as procedural abstractions. Coupled with a procedural language, a DBMS offers the programmer a higher level (in the sense of more abstract) language. The most important geodetic requirement on a commercial DBMS is therefore that the package contain a strong Data Manipulation Language, with strong support for the algorithmic language used for scientific processing. Presented at International Symposium on Management of Geodetic Data, Copenhagen, August 24–26, 1981.     

Evaluating Lost Person Behavior Models

US wilderness search and rescue consumes thousands of person‐hours and millions of dollars annually. Timeliness is critical: the probability of success decreases substantially after 24 hours. Although over 90% of searches are quickly resolved by standard “reflex” tasks, the remainder require and reward intensive planning. Planning begins with a probability map showing where the lost person is likely to be found. The MapScore project described here provides a way to evaluate probability maps using actual historical searches. In this work we generated probability maps the Euclidean distance tables in (Koester 2008 ), and using Doke's ( 2012 ) watershed model. Watershed boundaries follow high terrain and may better reflect actual barriers to travel. We also created a third model using the joint distribution using Euclidean and watershed features. On a metric where random maps score 0 and perfect maps score 1, the Euclidean distance model scored 0.78 (95%CI: 0.74–0.82, on 376 cases). The simple watershed model by itself was clearly inferior at 0.61, but the Combined model was slightly better at 0.81 (95%CI: 0.77–0.84).