Mechanisms for the link between onset and duration of open water in the Kara Sea

The sea ice conditions in the Kara Sea have important impacts on Arctic shipping, oil and gas production, and marine environmental changes. In this study, sea ice coverage (CR) less than 30％ is considered as open water, its onset and end dates are defined as Topen and Tclose, respectively. The sea ice melt onset (Tmelt) is defined as the date when ice-sea freshwater flux initially changes from ice into the ocean. Satellite-based sea ice concentration (SIC) from 1989 to 2019 shows a negative correlation between Topen and Tclose (r = –0.77, p < 0.01) in the Kara Sea. This phenomenon is also obtained through analyzing the hindcast simulation from 1994 to 2015 by a coupled ocean and sea-ice model (NAPA1/4). The model results reveal that thermodynamics dominate the sea ice variations, and ice basal melt is greater than the ice surface melt. Heat budget estimation suggests that the heat flux is significant correlated with Topen (r = –0.95, p < 0.01) during the melt period (the duration of multi-year averaged Tmelt to Topen) influenced by the sea ice conditions. Additionally, this heat flux is also suggested to dominate the interannual variation of the heat input during the whole heat absorption process (r = 0.81, p < 0.01). The more heat input during this process leads to later Tclose (r = 0.77, p < 0.01). This is the physical basis of the negative correlation between Topen and Tclose. Therefore, the duration of open water can be predicted by Topen and thence support earlier planning of marine activities.     

A new method of testing pile using dynamic P-S-curve made by amplitude of wave train

A new method of detecting the vertical bearing capacity for single-pile with high strain is discussed in this paper. A heavy hammer or a small type of rocket is used to strike the pile top and the detectors are used to record vibration graphs. An expression of higher degree of strain (deformation force) is introduced. It is testified theoretically that the displacement, velocity and acceleration cannot be obtained by simple integral acceleration and differential velocity when long displacement and high strain exist, namely when the pile phase generates a whole slip relative to the soil body. That is to say that there are non-linear relations between them. It is educed accordingly that the force P and displacement S are calculated from the amplitude of wave train and (dynamic) P-S curve is drew so as to determine the yield points. Further, a method of determining the vertical bearing capacity for single-pile is discussed. A static load test is utilized to check the result of dynamic test and determine the correlative constants of dynamic-static P(Q)-S curve. Foundation item: Key projects of the tenth Five-year Plan of Yunnan Province (documented Yunnan district [2002]54-02-02) and Geophysical Society of Yunnan Province.     

多元素衬值累加地球化学方法在找矿中的应用——以青海省夏日哈-什多龙远景区为例

青海省夏日哈-什多龙成矿远景区位于青藏高原东昆仑东段,西起都兰县夏日哈镇,东至兴海县什多龙一带,跨祁漫塔格北坡-夏日哈岩浆弧和北昆仑岩浆弧,是青海省重要的成矿区。为了在该区寻找新的成矿有利地段,本文在对该区区域地质背景、矿产特征及区内典型矿床地质特征系统研究的基础上,利用多元素衬值累加地球化学找矿方法,在区域上优选出一批找矿靶区。多元素衬值累加地球化学找矿方法首先收集远景区1∶5万水系沉积物测量成果,经过数据处理,绘制远景区衬值累计地球化学图,进而建立典型矿床找矿模式,最终通过对比分析,选出新的找矿靶区。对圈定的找矿靶区进行野外踏勘检查,均发现不同程度的矿化线索,为今后在该区进一步找矿起到了很好的指导作用。通过本次工作,发现了该方法在靶区圈定方面的优势:(1)可快速圈定异常,提高工作效率;(2)编制的地球化学图浓集中心更显著;(3)圈定的找矿靶区找矿成果显著,尤其针对陆相火山岩型多金属矿、斑岩型铜钼矿、矽卡岩型多金属矿找矿成果突出;(4)能直观反映背景变化趋势,有助于评价异常。     

中国地震网格试验系统中资源管理与作业调度研究-资源管理和作业动态分配模型ProRMJS的建立me

通过分析与研究建立资源管理和作业动态分配ProRMJS模型,解决了中国地震灾害仿真网格试验系统（CEDAGrid）中网格科学计算平台在初期建设中存在的一些资源管理方面的问题. 针对网格科学计算平台默认各个计算节点均能提供计算服务的问题,ProRMJS通过ldquo;计算池rdquo;这一虚拟组织为调度器分发作业提供支撑;而调度器则根据计算池中各个节点的计算能力和状态,动态分配任务,这样就保证了计算平台的稳定性. 针对默认各个计算节点均能完成任务的问题, ProRMJS通过监控各个节点所负担作业的运行进度和设定作业时间阈值来管理作业运行. 对于各个节点计算能力大小的区别, ProRMJS通过对各个节点计算性能的权值量化,实行按ldquo;需rdquo;分配作业. 对各个节点计算性能的权值量化, ProRMJS是通过综合考虑各个因素对机器计算能力大小的影响后通过加权计算的方式完成的,从而提高了整个计算平台的工作效率. 最后通过实现地震应力触发科学计算实例验证了方案的有效性,为网格技术在地震领域内的进一步应用作了有意义的探索.      

多隐层BP神经网络在模式预报中的简化应用

EC细网格预报效果好,基本满足业务需要,在工作中被广泛应用。为进一步提升预报准确性,做好迪士尼园区的气象服务保障,选取2016年7月至2017年6月1年的2 m温度预报场,24 h预报时效的时间分辨率为3 h,72 h预报时效的时间分辨率为24 h,分别用回归分析法、S型和简化Line型BP神经网络法进行模式释用,与迪士尼气象站观测数据对比。结果表明:阈值为1℃时,对模式结果释用后,均方根误差减少了0.5℃到1.0℃,3—9 h和21—72 h预报时效的准确率由原来的50%和30%分别上升到70%和50%。采用S型多隐层BP神经网络误差最小,不同预报时效释用稳定性最高,同时该释用方法对t_(min)的预报特征把握更精准,释用效果明显优于对t_(max)的预报释用,但迭代计算耗费时间大幅增多,与预报效果的提升不成正比。简化Line型的BP神经网络通过8个半月的数据量和简单的网络模式,捕获了EC预报的特征,不但减小了计算量,大幅缩短了计算时间,而且预报结果也有显著提升,预报稳定性较好,具有广泛的业务应用空间。     

黑河中游荒漠绿洲农业适应气候变化技术研究

以我国第二大内陆河流域——黑河流域的中游荒漠绿洲为例,基于长期定位试验成果,研究了绿洲农业适应气候变化的技术及其潜力。结果表明,在田间水平上,垄沟灌溉种植、主栽作物与伴生植物混播种植、优化水肥管理、建立枣粮复合系统是绿洲农业适应气候变化的有效技术;在绿洲水平上,调整农业种植结构、加大农田林网规格和减少农田林网的灌溉次数、降低防风固沙体系中高耗水树种——杨树的比例等技术是应对气候变化的重要途径。综合评价结果表明,在黑河中游绿洲,通过推广上述技术,在不降低绿洲农业产值和不影响绿洲生态系统稳定性的前提下,初步估算每年可节水2.96×108m3,抵消了气温上升大约1℃所带来的蒸散发消耗量。     

Characteristics of high arsenic groundwater in Hetao Basin, Inner Mongolia, northern China

It is well known that the Hetao Basin is one of the most seriously arsenic-affected groundwater areas in China. In order to understand the characteristics of high arsenic(As) groundwater in the Basin, a brief overview of arsenic in groundwater follows. High arsenic in the Basin commonly occurs in shallow groundwater and the total arsenic concentrations range from 0.58 to 572 μg/L(average 99.73 μg/L), exceeding the maximum mandated value of 10 μg/L for drinking water in China; As(Ш) is the predominant species. The regional distribution pattern of arsenic in the groundwater increases from south/southeast to north/northwest. Hangjinhouqi and Wuyuan counties are considered as the most seriously affected areas, with high incidences of endemic arsenicosic diseases in the Hetao Basin. High groundwater arsenic correlates with the increase of well depth. Previous studies proposed that groundwater arsenic in the Basin is mainly originated from desorption of some natural solid materials in the sediments, under reducing condition. Generally, reducing condition is believed to be the primary factor for arsenic releasing from the sediment to groundwater in the region. Under inorganic or bacterial processes, Fe2O3 changes to Fe S and arsenic adsorbed to Fe(OH)3 dissolves into groundwater, and As(V) is reduced to As(Ш). Besides, reducing environments, groundwater hydraulic gradients, organic matter, p H, evapotranspiration, and soil texture are presumed to be the predominant factors that control arsenic mobilization.     

基于小波变换改善天气回波信噪比的模拟分析

为了提升天气雷达对弱气象目标的发现能力,扩展系统观测的动态范围,可以从改善雷达回波的输出信噪比方面来考虑.从信号处理算法层面寻求改善天气雷达回波的输出信噪比的方法,提出运用小波变换的方法来达到这个目的.首先介绍了小波消噪的基本原理,再结合具体雷达系统参数,进行了相关的算法模拟,其结果表明,在符合高斯谱特征分布的模拟回波在不同信噪比（-20～10dB）设定条件下,运用小波变换的去噪方法可以使其信号的输出信噪比提高大约5～11dB,为天气雷达探测更多的弱气象目标提供了有利条件.     

贵州省乡村贫困空间格局与形成机制分析

以贫困态势严峻、区域内部贫困差异大的贵州省为研究区,分析了贵州省区县层面乡村贫困的空间异质性和空间依赖性格局,定量测度了乡村贫困空间差异的影响因素和因素效应的空间差异性,进而归纳了贵州省乡村贫困的形成机制。结果发现,贵州省区县乡村贫困具有时空稳定性,呈现出东、南、西部高而中、北部低的“马蹄”形空间异质性格局。区县贫困存在较强的空间依赖性,“高-高”型贫困地域即空间贫困陷阱区域,集聚分布在贵州省的东南部、南部。定量模型发现,坡度、到所在市中心的距离、青少年人口占比、少数民族人口占比是导致贵州区县层面乡村贫困空间差异的显著因素,且这些因素的效应水平呈现出不同的空间模式。产业发展受限、劳动力流动性差、金融和人力资本积累不足是贵州贫困空间形成的主导机制。最后建议扶贫政策层面应将基于地方和基于人的政策相结合。     

论卡以头组的时代

中国科学院南京地质古生物研究所的有关人员 (1980 )曾做过大量地层古生物工作 ,证实卡以头砂页岩层或卡以头组的时代为三叠纪最早期 ,是飞仙关组底部地层的相变。“论卡以头组”一文认为该组下部的时代为二叠纪 ,上部则属三叠纪。对该文提供的地层古生物资料进行分析后 ,本文作者认为该论点缺乏证据 ,不能成立 ;将陆相的威宁哲觉剖面代替标准地点宣威羊场的过渡相剖面作为卡以头组的标准剖面 ,也是不合适的