Radiating gravitational collapse with shear viscosity

A model is proposed of a collapsing radiating star consisting of an isotropic fluid with shear viscosity undergoing radial heat flow with outgoing radiation. The pressure of the star, at the beginning of the collapse, is isotropic but owing to the presence of the shear viscosity the pressure becomes more and more anisotropic. The behaviour of the density, pressure, mass, luminosity and the effective adiabatic index is analysed. Our work is compared to the case of a collapsing shearing fluid of a previous model, for a star with 6 M_⊙.     

川中地区茅口组两期流体叠合控制下的白云石化模式

岩相学特征、地化分析揭示:川中地区下二叠统茅口组白云岩存在三种白云石:①平直晶面细晶白云石(δ13C_PDB=3.06‰,δ18O_PDB=-6.81‰;Fe:1×10-6,Mn:未检出,Sr:150×10-6);②非平直晶面粗晶鞍状白云石(δ13C_PDB=3.22‰,δ18O_PDB=-7.82‰;Fe:149×10-6,Mn:185×10-6,Sr:85×10-6);③非平直晶面细晶白云石(δ13C_PDB=3.49‰,δ18O_PDB=-9.45‰;Th=123℃,S=133~139‰NaCl;Fe:58×10-6,Mn:59×10-6,Sr:76×10-6)。研究结果表明存在两期白云石化流体:①早期压实作用形成的埋藏白云石化流体(T=37.4℃;S=29.8‰NaCl);②晚期受构造控制的热液白云石化流体(Th=114.8℃;S=153~226‰NaCl)。明确了三种白云石的成因:平直晶面细晶白云石是由早期埋藏流体交代泥晶基质形成的;非平直晶面细晶白云石是平直晶面细晶白云石在受到热液流体改造后所形成的;而非平直晶面粗晶鞍状白云石则是由热液流体直接沉淀出的。基于研究结果建立了相应的白云化模式。     

徐淮地区斑井岩体锆石U-Pb测年、岩石成因及其地质意义

斑井岩体位于徐淮推覆体中北部皇藏峪复背斜北段西翼,由于研究重点和关注度不同,对其成因类型及年代学特征研究较少。故此,本次研究将依托于钻孔XZK01中的7个岩石样品,通过大量的主微量元素地球化学分析及锆石U-Pb年代学分析,深入探讨斑井岩体的成因机制、形成年代及其地质意义。LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年代学分析结果揭示斑井岩体的结晶年龄为126.4Ma±2.1Ma,侵位时代为中生代早白垩世,为地球动力学背景转变期间形成的岩体。本次6个样品的主量元素分析结果中w(SiO2)变化范围为56.54%~59.29%,全碱w(Na2O+K2O)变化范围为4.98%~5.68%,为中性岩;里特曼组合指数σ介于1.77~1.98之间,σ<3.3,属于钙碱性岩。其次,该组样品微量元素w(Sr)介于589×10^-6~728×10^-6之间,平均值为659×10^-6;w(Y)介于11.3×10^-6~12.8×10^-6之间,平均值为12.1×10^-6;w(Yb)介于1.13×10^-6~1.4×10^-6之间,平均值为1.23×10^-6;w(Cr)介于100×10^-6~660×10^-6之间,平均为377×10^-6;Mg#值介于47.17~68.14之间,平均值为58.21。该结果指示斑井岩体具富Sr,Sr/Y,贫Y,Yb的特征,指示其源区具有高压的环境,Mg#的变化特征揭示斑井岩体并非来自下地壳镁铁质岩石部分熔融,且w(Cr)的变化特征指示地幔橄榄岩也可能参与其中。此外,LREE/HREE介于6.91~10.98之间,平均值为8.895;LaN/YbN值在7.68~12.95之间,平均值为10.17,为轻稀土较强富集;大离子亲石元素Rb(23.9×10^-6~44.8×10^-6),K(11373×10^-6~14610.6×10^-6),Ba(513×10^-6~694×10^-6),Th(1.5×10^-6~2.5×10^-6),U(0.51×10^-6~0.79×10^-6)相对富集;高场强元素Nb(3.2×10^-6~4.7×10^-6),Ti(3056.7×10^-6~3536.2×10^-6)等表现出明显负异常。     

Influencing domain of peripheral sources in the urban heavy pollution process of Beijing

Multiple cities in a diveloped economic area may consist of a city cluster,and the difusion and mixing of its pollutants result in the effect of pollutants plume between cities and the large-scale regional pollution diffusion phenomenon.The distant transfer and diffusion of pollutants occurs when massive aerosols are affected by the dynamic porcess of large-scale circulations.Research suggesten that the life span of aerosol particles whose diameters are about 1 um is the longest.The longevity …     

气候变化对长江上游径流影响预估

利用第五次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)中5个气候模式在3种典型浓度路径(RCPs)下的预估结果驱动SWAT水文模型,预估了21世纪气候变化对长江上游年径流量、季节分配以及极端径流的影响。结果表明：预估的长江上游平均气温呈显著上升趋势,21世纪末较当前(1986—2005年)升高1.5~5.5℃,降水总体呈增加趋势,在21世纪30年代后高于当前气候平均值,21世纪末相对于当前增加5%~15%。流域内气候变化存在明显空间差异,金沙江和岷沱江流域气温升高和降水增加幅度均大于流域平均值。预估的长江上游年径流量及各月平均径流均有增加趋势,在21世纪30年代后高于当前多年平均值,21世纪中期增加4%~8%,21世纪末增加10%~15%。预估的径流年内分布的均匀性有所增加,但年际变化明显增大,极端旱涝事件的频率和强度明显增加。预估的各子流域径流变化对气候变化的响应也存在差异,金沙江和岷沱江流域年径流量、年际变化和年内分布变化小,对气候变化的响应表现为低敏感;嘉陵江流域、乌江流域和长江上游干流径流增加幅度大,同时极端丰枯出现的频率和程度增加显著,是气候变化响应的敏感区域。     

Statistical prediction of heavy rain in South Korea

1. Introduction In recent decades, extreme weather events seem to be growing in frequency and risk due to water-related disasters. According to the World Meteorological Or- ganization report (ISDR and WMO, 2004) on World Water Day, 22 March 2004, the economic losses caused by water-related disasters, including floods, droughts and tropical cyclones, are on an increasing trend as follows: the yearly mean in the 1970s was about 131 billion US dollars, 204 billion dollars in the 1980s, and …     

Projections of climate change impacts on central America tropical rainforest

Tropical rainforest plays an important role in the global carbon cycle, accounting for a large part of global net primary productivity and contributing to CO₂ sequestration. The objective of this work is to simulate potential changes in the rainforest biome in Central America subject to anthropogenic climate change under two emissions scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The use of a dynamic vegetation model and climate change scenarios is an approach to investigate, assess or anticipate how biomes respond to climate change. In this work, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was driven by the Eta regional climate model simulations. These simulations accept boundary conditions from HadGEM2-ES runs in the two emissions scenarios. The possible consequences of regional climate change on vegetation properties, such as biomass, net primary production and changes in forest extent and distribution, were investigated. The Inland model projections show reductions in tropical forest cover in both scenarios. The reduction of tropical forest cover is greater in RCP8.5. The Inland model projects biomass increases where tropical forest remains due to the CO₂ fertilization effect. The future distribution of predominant vegetation shows that some areas of tropical rainforest in Central America are replaced by savannah and grassland in RCP4.5. Inland projections under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 show a net primary productivity reduction trend due to significant tropical forest reduction, temperature increase, precipitation reduction and dry spell increments, despite the biomass increases in some areas of Costa Rica and Panama. This study may provide guidance to adaptation studies of climate change impacts on the tropical rainforests in Central America.     

Climate Suitability for Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Climate is one factor that determines the potential range of malaria. As such, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission was based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using 16 projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas with low precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries.     

西北中部半干旱区兴隆山森林岛降水机理的数值模拟

通过WRF V2.1.2模式数值模拟试验并结合长期观测数据,研究了中国西北半干旱区长期存在和维持的森林山区(兴隆山区,103.84°E、35.86°N)的降水特征及其与周边地区的降水差异,并探讨了造成这种差异的主要原因。结果表明,兴隆山区与周边地区的降水差异主要表现在夏、秋季。在夏、秋季兴隆山区受东南湿润气流的影响,获得较多的水汽输入和较稳定的水汽来源,而山地地形则有利于截留东南气流携带的水汽并形成降水;兴隆山区及其周边地区局地的蒸散差异对二者之间降水差异的贡献不大。另外,兴隆山区土壤堆积覆盖的石质山构造和森林下垫面也有利于降水的截留和贮存以及植被的生长。因此,有利于水汽输入的大尺度环流形势、地形对空中水汽的截留以及特殊的地质因素是兴隆山山区孤立森林岛在半干旱区长期存在和维持的原因。     

A western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity prediction scheme

A western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) intensity prediction scheme (WIPS) is developed based on TC samples from 1996 to 2002 using the stepwise regression technique, with the western North Pacific divided into three sub-regions: the region near the coast of East China (ECR), the South China Sea region (SCR), and the far oceanic region (FOR). Only the TCs with maximum sustained surface wind speed greater than 17.2 m s⁻¹ are used in the scheme. Potential predictors include the climatology and persistence factors, synoptic environmental conditions, potential intensity of a TC and proximity of a TC to land. Variances explained by the selected predictors suggest that the potential intensity of a TC and the proximity of a TC to land are significant in almost all the forecast equations. Other important predictors include vertical wind shear in ECR, 500-hPa geopotential height anomaly at the TC center, zonal component of TC translation speed in SCR, intensity change of TC 12 or 24 h prior to initial time, and the longitude of TC center in FOR.