河套地区4~5月雨量变化周期特征及其趋势预测

Morlet子波分析表明，河套地区4－5月雨量明显存在7a,24a和3a周期，其中以7a周期为最强。用子波分析和周期图方法预测该地区4－5月在2000－2003年雨量将持续偏少，2004或2005年雨量可能会明显偏多。     

陕西果业基地伏旱指数及其预报方法

选取陕西苹果(梨)生产基地县中生态环境、气候特点与苹果(梨)产业发展水平具有代表性的10个台站,近40 a(1969—2008年)伏期降水量和无降水日数资料,设计并计算其伏旱指数。将伏旱指数分成强、偏强、中等、偏弱和弱五个等级,并用典型k阶自回归AR(k)预测模式进行独立样本预测试验。结果表明:伏旱指数能够较客观地反映基地县的伏旱强度,且伏旱指数的时空分布特征差异较大。这与这些基地县所处纬度、海拔高度、生态环境和气候背景的差异有关。典型k阶自回归预测模式预测准确及基本准确率在70%左右,预报效果尚好,具有实用价值。     

Performance of a Reconfigured Atmospheric General Circulation Model at Low Resolution

Paleoclimate simulations usually require model runs over a very long time.The fast integration version of a state-of-the-art general circulation model (GCM),which shares the same physical and dynamical processes but with reduced horizontal resolution and increased time step,is usually developed.In this study,we configure a fast version of an atmospheric GCM (AGCM),the Grid Atmospheric Model of IAP/LASG (Institute of Atmospheric Physics/State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics),at low resolution (GAMIL-L,hereafter),and compare the simulation results with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and other data to examine its performance.GAMIL-L,which is derived from the original GAMIL,is a finite difference AGCM with 72×40 grids in longitude and latitude and 26 vertical levels.To validate the simulated climatology and variability,two runs were achieved.One was a 60-year control run with fixed climatological monthly sea surface temperature (SST) forcing,and the other was a 50-yr (1950-2000) integration with observational time-varying monthly SST forcing.Comparisons between these two cases and the reanalysis,including intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability are also presented.In addition,the differences between GAMIL-L and the original version of GAMIL are also investigated. The results show that GAMIL-L can capture most of the large-scale dynamical features of the atmosphere, especially in the tropics and mid latitudes,although a few deficiencies exist,such as the underestimated Hadley cell and thereby the weak strength of the Asia summer monsoon.However,the simulated mean states over high latitudes,especially over the polar regions,are not acceptable.Apart from dynamics,the thermodynamic features mainly depend upon the physical parameterization schemes.Since the physical package of GAMIL-L is exactly the same as the original high-resolution version of GAMIL,in which the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM2) physical package was used,there are only small differences between them in the precipitation and temperature fields.Because our goal is to develop a fast-running AGCM and employ it in the coupled climate system model of IAP/LASG for paleoclimate studies such as ENSO and Australia-Asia monsoon,particular attention has been paid to the model performances in the tropics.More model validations,such as those ran for the Southern Oscillation and South Asia monsoon, indicate that GAMIL-L is reasonably competent and valuable in this regard.     

Monthly Variations of Atmospheric Circulations Associated with Haze Pollution in the Yangtze River Delta and North China

Haze pollution in early winter(December and January) in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) and in North China(NC)are both severe;however, their monthly variations are significantly different. In this study, the dominant large-scale atmospheric circulations and local meteorological conditions were investigated and compared over the YRD and NC in each month. Results showed that the YRD(NC) is dominated by the so-called Scandinavia(East Atlantic/West Russia)pattern in December, and these circulations weaken in January. The East Asian December and January monsoons over the YRD and NC have negative correlations with the number of haze days. The local descending motion facilitates less removal of haze pollution over the YRD, while the local ascending motion facilitates less removal of haze pollution over NC in January, despite a weaker relationship in December. Additionally, the monthly variations of atmospheric circulations showed that adverse meteorological conditions restrict the vertical(horizontal) dispersion of haze pollution in December(January) over the YRD, while the associated local weather conditions are similar in these two months over NC.     

古气候模拟

古气候模式与现代气候模式控制因子不完全相同,有的因子在现代气候模拟中可以不考虑,但是在古气候模拟中则是必不可少的,例如轨道参数、大气中温室气体的浓度、大陆冰盖、大洋热盐环流等。而且,随着模拟的时间尺度不同,这些因子的作用也不同。评价古气候模拟,可以从3处着眼:气候变化的方向、幅度和速度。但是,长期以来古气候模拟仅仅涉及到前两个问题,也就是研究气候对外强迫的平衡响应。集其大成者是古气候模式比较计划(Paleaoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project,     

由GOCE引力梯度张量不变量确定卫星重力模型的半解析法

提出了利用半解析方法解算重力场与稳态海洋环流探测器(gravity field and steady-state ocean circulation explorer,GOCE)引力梯度张量不变量观测值来恢复全球卫星重力模型的方法,该方法比最小二乘方法效率高,同样可给出模型的验后方差。推导了半解析法快速解算引力梯度张量不变量的理论公式,给出了该方法利用卫星重力梯度观测数据快速求解重力场模型的基本步骤。利用89.5°倾角圆形严格重复轨道上的模拟梯度观测值验证了半解析方法用于张量不变量解算的理论严密性,并利用GOCE任务61 d 梯度仪坐标系(gradiometer reference frame,GRF)下无噪声和有噪声的I₂和V_zz模拟观测值进行了模型反演和结果分析。结果表明,利用I₂观测值求解模型的精度略优于仅用V_zz分量解算模型的精度。     

CAD到GIS数据无损转换方法研究——以居民地及其设施为例

实现CAD与GIS数据共享的主要途径之一是利用FME中的语义转换技术,实验以DWG格式的居民地及设施数据为例,通过FME项目转换模型时,完成了CAD格式数据与GIS格式数据的关系表,在此关系表为基础的情况下,完成DWG数据到GIS数据的转换。模型实现了对DWG居民地及设施数据到ArcGIS的shp数据的无损转换,数据编码一一对应,并对转换后的数据进行拓扑检查和修改。数据的批量处理主要是利用脚本程序进行,同时输出处理过程和结果的log文件,这个过程在很大程度上提高了数据入库的正确性、共享性和转换效率。     

利用GOCE模拟观测反演重力场的Torus法

在介绍Torus方法反演地球重力场模型的基本原理和方法的基础上,基于圆环面上均匀分布的卫星引力梯度模拟观测值解算了200阶次的地球重力场模型,在无误差情况下,Torus方法解算模型的阶误差RMS小于10-16,验证了该方法的严密性。利用61dGOCE卫星轨道上无误差的模拟引力梯度观测值解算了200阶次的地球重力场模型,分析了格网化误差、极空白对解算精度的影响,迭代3次后,在不考虑低次系数情况下,模型的大地水准面阶误差和累积误差均较小,最大值仅为0.022mm和0.099mm。在沿轨卫星引力梯度模拟数据中加入5mE/Hz1/2的白噪声,基于Torus方法和空域最小二乘法解算了200阶次的地球重力场模型,Torus方法的精度略低于空域最小二乘法的精度,在不考虑低次项的情况下,两种方法解算模型的大地水准面阶误差最大值分别为1.58cm和1.45cm,累积误差最大值分别为6.37cm和5.55cm。但由于采用了二维快速傅里叶技术和块对角最小二乘法,极大地提高了计算效率。本文数值结果说明Torus方法是一种独立有效的方法,可用于GOCE任务海量卫星引力梯度观测值反演重力场的快速解算。     

地图模型的研究

讨论了地图模型的实质,对地图模型的直观性、一览性、抽象性、概括性、可量测性、几何精确性、合成性、几何相似性、地理一致性、单义性、连续性、艺术性等认识论特性和表现形式的多样性、存储量的巨大性、信息传输性、信息多维动态性等信息论特性进行了重点分析了,并阐述了地图模型对计算机制图和地图分析应用的研究意义。